Month: October 2010
We finished a great Month of trading at Vtrender Live and am happy to bring to you our report card for the month.
Before that, a quick note to say that all the invitations for tomorrow’s webinar have been dispatched . Kindly register in advance so that you can have easy access to the conference centre.
The webinar begins at 11.30 am tomorrow.
We arranged for some extra buffer seats to meet the additional demand. Of the additinal requested, We have about 12 seats remaining . So in case you still want to get in –this may be your last chance.
Here’s is the scoresheet for October
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( click with your mouse on the sheet and you can move it through the arrow keys on your keyboard )
In a trading world which looks at intra-day trading with contempt, we are happy to project another bench-mark 70 % performance.The Industry considers 7 wins in 10 as a healthy average and we are happy to be on par ( Anybody claiming more should invite suspicion 🙂 )
The calculations are for a single lot on an average. We recommend always a trade in pairs. The above performance would easily better by 40-65 % if you consider it for 2 lots.
Of the 53 Index trades we took in the month, 40 returned as winners with a cumulative 1565 points for the month.We had managed 1069 points in the month of September.
Our favorite Bank nifty returned 1282 points with a 22-6 win loss record in 28 trades.The bank Nifty index in the same period ranged from 12015-12900 and did about 850-900 points only.
Our market profile methodology and order flow techniques have really started to resonate together now and we hope to churn out similar performances.
If anybody had any doubts on how Open Interest rules the NSE trading screen (and our accounts) today’s activity in the Nifty spot, particularly in the last hour should put all those doubts to rest.
The Nifty spot price was used to settle positions with the writers of the 6000 CE and the 6000 PE today. It made new lows today, matching the lows of last week and all the time the Nov Future, held the lows of the morning and closed with a 70 point premium !
After finishing off the 6000 CE writers from early morning whose Open Interest at one point reached 12 lacs ( subsequently reduced to 2 lacs) the Nifty made a u turn for the PE writers who at that point had written 22 lacs for a little over 4 bucks. The PE story at 6000 read as 17 lacs reduced from yesterday’s close.
Moral of the story : You do not write penny options.
Moral 2 : You do not write close to expiry.
The overall picture is still the same
The Nifty began quietly this morning below value and below range.
An effort to move up above yesterday’s lows was met with adamant sellers and no buying support which meant a move to the lower part of the trading range later in the day.
We are still playing this as a trading range and are expecting a move up in the later part of the session tomorrow.Meantime our our delta neutral 6100 strategy has notched up around 60 points per lot as of today’s close.
Statistically speaking the closing range given yesterday of 6120-6140 for this expiry may not be possible in tomorrow’s trade.today’s big slide has changed that equation.Any upmove in the Nifty future will meet stiff resistance at 6075 tomorrow.Similar level will be 6100 in Nov fut.
I’m posting charts of the November future.
Bank Nifty did well to close above 12220. This level can be a good buy level tomorrow in Nov fut.
The expiry strategy should be to buy the 6000 call somewhere in the first hour.
The Nifty has been able to wrap a lot of traders in tangles, especially those who are anticipatory by nature and do not really listen to the message of the market.
WE know that if a market auctions below value and below VWAP, shorts would give you more profitable results than longs.
In the one upmove the Nifty made above 6120 levels to 6140, the delta was almost non existent and the reversal was quick.
With two full sessions left for expiry it does look like the future would finish between 6125-6140. That’s a bold statement and lots can change in two days, but we are never the kind who have shied away from giving our view of the market.
That in fact is the message we read from the market now and if things change we will let you know in tomorrow’s post.
The Bank Nifty looked and acted weaker than the Nifty today.There’s lots of algo activity in the Bank Nifty at the moment, working in set patterns, making trading this instrument a mechanical habit.
It remains to be seen whether it can stand up to expiry pressures.
The strong upmove we saw in the Nifty did have the trappings on a trend day, but the similarity ended at the end of the first hour.
Subsequent failure to go past the IB high meant that the range breakout of 6160 would be tested again- a test which eventually failed.
Value was established higher though and may mean a revisit to the 6180 zone soon.
6124 and 6096 are strong supports and 6222 would be the target above 6180.
The Bank Nifty has got good supports at 12410 and 12310.
The target for the upmove would be 12690 and 12780.
P.S : Shai’s just informed me that the Saturday Webinar is almost 70 % booked.I stress again that we have limited seats and may not be able to entertain late requests.