Month: December 2010

Team Vtrender takes the Opportunity to wish you all a happy and a prosperous new year 2011

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Here is an updated chart I had posted last weekend calling for a sideways move in the market this week.You can find my last post here

The changes in the chart are in the heat map on the left which gives you the volume profile for the entire bracket of 5730-6092 and the new heat map on the right which is this week’s volume profile.

As you can see from the red in the charts, there is a clear accumulation of volume at 6000 levels which would give rise to the possibility of a directional move coming from these levels.

Besides, the market put in a non-trend day today, which in itself will call for a large move to follow either immediately or the day following.

I was chuckling away when some TV presenters were attributing holidays, year end etc etc to describe today’s action, but every profiler would be rubbing his hands in glee at the prospect of an eventful day coming up.

5930 or 6067 have a 50 % probability each from current levels and one of them would be definitely visited.The 6000 straddle will be a good bet with a 20 % stop loss in the front month options.The gains in one will exceed the 20 % loss in the other.

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The market undid the good work of yesterday and for tomorrow 11520 will be the key.

Earlier this morning if you were on the chat box, you would have taken cues to book out longs partially- a signal which we gave live here at 9.36 this morning 20 mins after the market open with the Nifty then at 6040 and the Bank Nifty at 11680 !

Longs from 58XX levels are still safe as long as the Nifty trades above 5944 and the Bank nifty above 11320.As Shai had called over the weekend, we are in a sideways zone, and profits have to be booked before they get eaten up by the market.

This is also my last post this year as I head off for some R & R.

See you next year. Happy Holidays !

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As expected in the later part of the day and posted in my view on thursday, the rotation between 5955-5990 happened in the later part of the day. My last post on the subject of rotation is here

The Nifty future has to defend 5944 tomorrow for an upmove above 5990 to materialize. The target in that case would be 6070.

The bank Nifty was resisted at 11440, which was pointed out by Girish in the trading room as support from 26/11.

After two unsuccessful attempts, the Bank Nifty took the path of least resistance which in it’s case was downward.

In the process the BN put in an inside day today, which will call for a large move either tomorrow or day after.

The orderflow of the Nifty future is here :

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The chart is a 30 minute bar chart of the Nifty future for the past 30 days.

6097 and 5730 represent the extreme ends of the bracket we currently find ourselves in. Within this channel I have introduced two light blue horizontal lines ( on the right ) which define the path from the lows to a possible top of the bracket, the Nifty future took through the current week.

Also included are two heat maps based on volume profile.The larger heat map on the left is for the entire duration of the current bracket ( 6097-5730) and the one on the right is for the last 5 days of activity.

The black in the heat maps represent zones of low volume activity with the color gradient going to blue, green, yellow and red as the volume increases.This option helps us to get a visual display of high and low volume areas.

As you can see the extreme ends of the bracket ( black zone) have been quickly rejected and price hasn’t spent a lot of time there, whereas the middle ( red/ yellow) is where the market has auctioned most of the time neat the 5950 zone.

So whilst we are within the blue channel, we are looking for signs to see if there may emerge a breakout based on the last five days of activity.

Unfortunately we can see a replica of the past 30 days in the last 5 days of data.

The red and yellow in the past week are exactly where they were in the past one month.

So the inference is that the sideways range in the Nifty would continue.

This market is an option writer’s delight.

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Two statements from last evenings post here

“5868-5863 holds the key in the Nifty tomorrow.”

“The Nifty chart showed the presence of a buyer at 5925 levels”

The Nifty moved sideways till the afternoon and once the RBI news got digested the low at 5863 was bought and the Nifty finished a 100 points higher from there.

We have a full session of trading in international markets, before we resume again on Monday and lots can change from a sentiment point of view between now and then, but the damaging part of the afternoon move was that value was not created higher and the point of control stayed in it’s place.

At the worst the bulls can hope for a rotation in the 5990-5955 low vol zone before a move higher, buy 5955-5945 will have to be defended.

The bank Nifty chart showed a buyer at 11180 early in the morning, and the fact that the market stayed above vwap was in itself a statement that the market would seen higher levels later, despite the news flow.

This market also has to stay above 11244 all of next week for it to move up again.

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The bank Nifty chart was a simple sell at the morning, with a small whipsaw in the afternoon.

The 5 trades in the Nifty would have given you 80 + points today, enough to pay for an entire month at Vtrender !

The bank Nifty would have paid for a quarter with over 400 points on 1 lot.

Even if you trade one signal a day, rest assured you would not lose your subscription amount to Vtrender.

But then if you want to sit on the fence and keep analyzing, will you ever trade?

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The purple dotted is value area low from yesterday and the large red PNF candle at 9.30 confirmed seller intentions.The initiative selling continued throughout the day and every rise was used to send the index even lower.Buying attempts at 11370 and 11300 were quickly decimated and the day belonged to the sellers by a margin !

For tomorrow as the market waits for the RBI news, it will be interesting to see responsive activity coming from buyers if there is an early morning sell off again.

The Nifty chart showed the presence of a buyer at 5925 levels.But once he was taken off it was difficult for the buyers to capture that level again.Prices however did make it to 5955 which was the previous days Point of Control as also the high of the day.

5868-5863 hold the key in the Nifty tomorrow.

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Value areas :

5959-5954-5937 in the Nifty
11631-11600-11554 in Bank Nifty.

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*First Trade : Short from 11605, reversed at 11550 for 55 points
*Second Trade : Long at 11550, reversed at 11609 for 59 points
*Third trade : short at 11609, reversed at 11551 again for 58 points
*Fourth trade : Long at 11551. exited at 11654 for 103 points.

There was a fifth trade at 11654, which could have brought me 11580, but which I did not take. Also 4 other signals were generated before 12.00 and two of them would have given you 100 points plus.

No need of any Technical Analysis. It has been built in. Just follow the signals from the charts.

As Shai says we are truly on the way of letting people know that you can make money in trading and you can “kick the habit of losing money in the markets”.

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Added later:

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There are two signals in the chart : a blue-red signal which gives blue for buying and a red for selling as an intra day stop and reverse method and a green-pink signal which indicates a green for buying and a pink for selling. Click on the chart to enlarge.

Have a closer look at today’s action :

Just following the blue line today would have given you 500 points in the Bank Nifty today !

I remember back in September, just after we started Vtrender Live I had uploaded a video explaining our mission statement– to bring you charts everyday which would give you the best possible location to carry out favorable trades.It was also the time, when we had introduced our vision slowly to our subscribers.

Here’s that video again :

http://www.youtube.com/get_player

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