Month: February 2011
We just finished off an extremely non-volatile expiry day with price probing lower all day and a session which closed at the lows.
The day was extremely profitable for a lot of us at Vtrender Live, with OrderFlow doing the bulk of the work for us.
With expiry out of the way, next week also promises to be an eventful one, starting with the budget session on Monday.
It’s always been our endeavor that we offer the best of our tools and our experience to you to ensure your profitability in return for a small monetary consideration from you for our time and attention paid to your details as a win-win situation.All this whilst ensuring that you see the same charts as I do and trade the same way as I do.
With that objective, we want to introduce a small offer for you to get a feel of what we do at Vtrender Live.
Come trade with us at Vtrender Live all of next week for Rupees 999/- only and catch the movement of the market as it unfolds through OrderFlow indicators and Market profile Charts.
This offer is valid only for next week, starting Monday 28th Feb and ending on Friday 4th March.
What it includes :
– Access to the Vtrender Live Trading Room for 5 days
– Live charts of the Nifty, BankNifty, Reliance and SBI delivered to your desktop.
– OrderFlow indicators within charts to ensure the right trades for yourself
– 1-3 calls everyday on Nifty / BankNifty with very clear entry, stops and targets.
– Real time analysis of market action
– Audio seminar everyday at 10.00 am and 2.45 pm on the day’s developments
– Answers and assistance on individual positions
– Education on Market profile
What it does not include :
– sms alerts ( only for regular subscribers)
– Access to Vtrender Live site and the analysis there ( only for regular subscribers)
-analysis on other positions besides the 4 instruments mentioned above
The weekly offer is only for the coming week. If you are interested in being a part of the team, then you can send your subscription for the weekly offer by following this link.
We begin On Monday 28th Feb at 9.15 am and you will be accommodated in the same room as our regular subscribers and have access to the same tools as they do.
See you there.
Over the weekend, Viren had posted an interesting chart about the Point of control for the series holding price down and a flat market for the week.
Unfortunately the profit for the straddle has been severely affected by a rampaging Vix which has put paid to hopes of a theta decay for most writers from last week.
But the importance of the chart for direction cannot be undermined.
The Vix range for expiry tomorrow is 5500- 5381 and the market should operate within that range tomorrow provided we do not have another 10 % bump-up in the Vix during the day.
The values developed for the series are 5385-5475-5553.
5475 has been a pivot around which most of the trading has been happening and attempts to break down below 5429 have been stopped by an adamant VWAP which has converted those moves into day lows right around there !
Very clearly fresh downward impetus will be below 5385 and upward bias will resume over 5553 for the month of March.
My charts indicate new shorts in march futures at current levels, could also be rollovers, and we would wait for price to confirm that downward bias.
For tomorrow, there is a 30 point trade above 5460 to consider, a 20 point trade below 5427 and a further 30 points from there to work out of.
Happy Trading.
Here is some recent Vix discussion from the trading room :
The excerpt in unedited and recent :
[10:55] Shai C: a higher vix and lower price is actually a false notion of the mkts
[10:55] Shai C: does not happen all the time
[10:56] Lingaraju Haralahalli: Shai, I fully agree on that
[10:56] Shai C: maybe when people buy and sell india volatility, the corelation will be better
[10:57] Chandra Shekhar: LH… just read something on nseindia online. It is computed from option prices itself. So it should be higher because option writers are asking for higher prices and buyers are paying those prices.
[10:57] Lingaraju Haralahalli: But the VIX stops rising or falling whenever indices are abt to reverse their direction many times
[10:58] Chandra Shekhar: those of you who may be interested, here’s a small writeup with a link to bigger paper … http://www.nseindia.com/content/vix/India_VIX_comp_meth.pdf
[10:58] r m: VIX is calculated from Option premium volatility so the pain to writers means higher VIX
[10:59] Lingaraju Haralahalli: Yes may be even with wild nifty movements. But to calculate VIX as per option premiums defeats the very purpose
[11:00] Shai C: agree
[11:01] Shai C: and considering how lopsided the option mkt is, it fails to impress as a lead indicator
[11:01] Chandra Shekhar: LH… according to my theoretical knowledge, volatility is calculated over historical data but market is interested in future volatility which is better reflected in current prices at which options are getting traded.
[11:02] Chandra Shekhar: no doubt if markets are not liquid and highly competitive, such calculation based on recent premiums would tend to become meaningless
[11:02] Lingaraju Haralahalli: Yes it is playing into the hands of Option writers/market makers
[11:03] r m: @CS, it is calculated on the basis of near and next series Out of Money option spreads
[11:03] Lingaraju Haralahalli: All in all there is no level playing ground in options mkt
[11:08] Shai C: http://www.scribd.com/doc/19240573/Volatility-Index
[11:08] Shai C: another paper on india vix
[11:11] Lingaraju Haralahalli: Yes RM. You r right. There is no evil in the methodology. But we are entitled to a volatility index which will reflect on the Index movements as the presenr VIX as Shai rightly said fails to impress as a lead indicator.
[11:12] Chandra Shekhar: thanks Shai… that’s a good paper
[11:13] Chandra Shekhar: LH… I believe a lead indicator is just a dream. Volatility calculated with historical data is far removed from current conditions. Atleast VIX is based on current market quotations. There is nothing else really
[11:16] Lingaraju Haralahalli: CS Yes it makes sense. Agreed
After two days of activity, the Nifty Future has managed to close at exactly the developing point of control and today’s lows were exactly at the VWAP for the series.
Viren’s charts posted over the weekend haven’t changed much and neither has been the assessment for the series.
During such times it is better to sit back and let the action unfold through pre-determined levels ( Value areas suggested by him) than alternate between buying and selling views for every 40 point move the index makes.
Speaking of taking views on buying and selling, our OrderFlow indicators continue to amaze us with their accuracy even in these side-ways markets.
As a trader, you only want to be on the right side of the days trend and whilst you may not be able to capture every rupee from the markets, our OrderFlow indicators at least help us to decide which side to lean on for our trades.
It’s a strict “No” to trade opposite the main trend as indicated by the OrderFlow Red-Blue.
Have a look :
The Order Flow captures all the moves of the market and occasionally when it goes side-ways, it tells us to lie low or trade less aggressively than we normally do.
You don’t need great technical analysis to know which side to trade on. Short when OF is red and Long when OF is Blue.The two reversals (blue OF) at 10.00 am and 3.00 pm with each measuring 40 points tell us clearly when the trend is changing and are a warning to book existing profits if not to reverse the trade.
Here’s the bank nifty :
It’s great to see such a volatile instrument being tamed to such perfect signals by the OrderFlow indicators. 6 signals in 2 days and each measures over 80 points at the minimum.
You just require two things to trade the OrderFlow :
1) belief in the method ( we have put all the thinking in the indicator)
2) patience.
with these two things, you will surely “kick the habit of losing money in the markets”
