Month: February 2011

Vtrender > Forum > 2011 > February

Here is an analysis posted every evening at our subscriber site www.vtrender-2.com.

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The Italics are the comments from the previous day.

Bank Nifty :

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– Clearly the mkt stalled at the upper end of yesterday’s profile
– Momentum from the DD seems to be losing
– above 11020 seems to be a clear move to 11144
– but mkt now seems to be a “p’ in the 2 day profile.

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– The BN did not find willing sellers below val.
– first part was the 80 % rule from VAL to VAH.
– strength above the DD took the market straight up to 11144.
– 11008/ 11064 are new short term supports

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Nifty :

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– Symmetry came in through balance profile
– 2 day profile is another pointer to a move lower to 5435
– strength above highs will lead to the previous 5567/ 5577.

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– good volumes seen above 5508
– a DD pattern is a sign of continuity
– a previous failure at 5567 needs to be considered
– 5508/ 5494 are short term supports.

SBI :


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-Profile shows single print buying at 2721.

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— 2787 almost hit.
— a low volume zone between 2787 and 2841 now.
— this market can easily rush up those points between the levels.
— 2718 is minor support.

RIL :

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– RIL operated completely in the upper end of the bracket.
– This profile is also balanced and should give a directional move tomorrow.
– In a weak market rejection at 953, should set up good stops with a 3 point stop.

—-

– Reliance did come off the bracket and should move higher
– Do not expect the pace to be on the higher side as it moves away from the congestion zone
– 943 will be support on downside.

—-xx——xx———

I will be back with a report EOD.

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A EOD report from Vtrender Live

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Summary:
1. Options table is now at a point that its now looking too bullish. That’s where one has to be cautious. 
2. 5600 is the current resistance
3. 5500 is a 50-50 level with equal puts and calls
4. 5400 is the strong support. Yesterday 17L 5300PEs were added. Someone buying?
5. PCR up 1.22 from 1.17


Nifty Futures:
2.57Cr OI up 0.5% – still no sign of big OI cut. OI is up almost 25% from the first day of series.


Banknifty futures:
10.9L OI up 6% – Almost 1.8L of OI has been added in last 2 days! I presume these are longs but only a good move with volumes above 11280-11440 will confirm. 

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Options/futures data for 16th Feb (EOD)

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That- from the part of the world I have been to recently means “It’s nice to meet you”.

Happy to be back on Vtrender and doing a post after 45 days +.

Lots has changed and it’s very difficult to see the markets at 5500 levels instead of the 6xxx levels.I was in the trading room yesterday which has also changed and it was good to see some happy people and a room size which is up 30 % in one month.

More importantly, there are some smart people with sound opinions and it always is beneficial to trade in an environment conducive to personal growth and the like.

When I was struggling with my trading back in 2003, it was community support from the likes of Shai and one or two others which helped me get going.The power of trading with people can never be underestimated as long as everybody has got one consistent objective to remain profitable.NewBie traders wanting to learn the markets will never be disappointed with Vtrender Live in it’s present form.

I know Shai has been putting a lot of efforts behind the scenes not just in putting out some immaculate trades, but also some great educative articles at Vtrender-2, which should make aspiring profilers learn auction market theory quickly.

My inputs at Vtrender have been restricted off late owing to some additional demands on my time, but I have agreed to work on the “positional aspect” of the trading room with analysis and trades to meet our swing trading requirements.These include the long term OrderFlow charts which should help us keep positions for more than a few days.

About the markets today, we had a neutral day. It’s a pattern with neutral days and they can be repetitive or follow each other closely.But today was also a balanced profile and if you have been reading this blog long enough you would understand the importance of those two words.They are game changers in more ways than one. I hold the view that we have broken out of the downtrend and should challenge 5577/ 5625 next.The swing traders would hold 5370/ 5410 as their stops.

I would post details about these charts in my next post.

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Tsharafna

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At Vtrender we are firm believers in inter market and intra market relationships between stocks, currencies, commodities and the like.

Within an index also we keep looking for symmetry( to use a Market profile term) or the co-relation between indices to get an edge to benefit our trading.

It is a well-known fact that the BankNifty leads the Nifty up and down, a fact we have been pointing out over the past one year. But today we have to look at one of the major generals of the army, to get an idea of how the broader market will perform over the shorter term.

Our leader of the lead index ( Bank Nifty) is of course SBI.

One need not look much beyond the last Mahurat session in early November and the SBI price of 3500 printed that day. It need not be stressed that the index never saw 6335 after that day.

So whilst SBI came off a whopping 1000 points, the Nifty followed. The army always follows a general.

That’s in the past, we now come to the present and see what SBI has been doing recently.

Here’s a composite profile of the SBI futures :

Earlier on friday morning , when we were watching for signs of acceptance in the Nifty futures below the 5200 level, we had one eye on SBI which had formed a “b” shaped profile the previous day. In Profile a b shaped pattern on the charts is often an indication of shorts covering.Also the lows of friday were the same spot from where SBI had done a jump of 250 points in 4 sessions previously in Jan.So the level had it’s importance clearly marked.

The composite profile completes the rest of the story.

The ‘b’ shape was confirmed friday as well and this morning the profile accepted the activity on friday and closed at the upper end of the bracket below the important 2706 zone.

Coincidentally the Nifty future closed around 5445 levels, an important reference level for us for the next 125-150 points.

Tomorrow we will watch SBI again to see if it can once again show the way.

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SBI

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Earlier today, we noticed a not very confident probe of price below value lows, though the distance covered was around 45 points to 5175 levels.

What was noticeable was an important part of the index – the banks not moving below value or to new lows.

If you had watched the value areas closely especially the relevance of the point of control, it was not at all a difficult day to trade today.

The OrderFlow charts made the job even easier. Take a look :

Order Flow suggested buyers coming to replace reluctant sellers at 5194.These confident buyers managed to take the Nifty up to 5328 in one continuous move measuring 134 points.

The BN got resisted at VAH early in the morning, but once it broke through there was no stopping. I tried to take a counter trend trade around 10265 levels, but had to quickly give up to persistent buyers for a minor 30 points of profits.When the previous highs around 10290 were taken, there was no looking back.

The profile charts of today throw interesting possibilities for Monday, many of which we will discuss in the webinar tomorrow.

So if you have not registered for it yet, try the link at the top right of the blog or send a mail to vtrender@gmail.com.

Market profile is one study which can call the major levels and the moves of the market right, 90 % of the time.So if you are still struggling in your trading, start reading up about profile.Your trading will get the edge it requires!

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Order Flow : 11th FEb

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