Month: July 2011

One of the better things we as profilers enjoy to do is to see the changing dynamics of the market relative to time.

In market profile, we get an excellent read on the market when we see Time on the Horizontal axis instead of price.In fact No study of the market is complete without understanding the movements of Price, Volume and Time.

At Vtrender we form our biases by looking at the intermediate time frame for the trend and understanding the role the smallest time frame player- the day time frame, plays with respect to that. We prefer to look at moves within a 3 month cycle- a preferred period of the NSE which operates contracts in a 90 day period.

The market becomes very easy to understand if you look at it from that time frame.

Here is a chart which shows Time Cycles for the Nifty Spot over the intermediate term.

The IT cycle for each instrument is different and is comprised of daily and monthly cycles. Each Intermediate Term ( IT ) Time cycle lasts on an average of 84- 99 Calendar days. The approximate duration for a half daily cycle is 15 days. Most people call the daily cycle of the market a Lunar cycle and it is not surprising to see Traders look at New Moons and Full Moons to get a bias from the market.At the risk of alienating such readers, the actual reason which moves the markets is the daily cycle lows and highs.

In the chart above, the blue rectangles represent IT cycles. Each box has the nos of days at the top and the range of the market during that time. The days are depicted as actual sessions, hence you would get numbers from 65- 74 in place of calendar days.

The time cycles are more useful to measure bottoms of the market than tops.

A right translated cycle is the one where a top is formed to the right of the center of the IT cycle.This is an extremely bullish event and can lead to a parabolic rise in the markets.The third rectangle from the left is an example of a Right translated cycle.

A left Translated cycle on the other hand has a top to the left of center and can lead to a sharp move lower.We had a left translated cycle in the month of January this year.The translated cycles can be easily spotted through failed daily cycles.

The last intermediate term low was at 5182 spot on June 20th.We are near the end of the first daily cycle with a daily cycle high and low already in place.The current daily cycle should be over in the coming week.

The projection for the current IT cycle would put a high in the 5950-6000 zone in the next two months.This is considering that we have not topped out already at 5730. If the top is in place, then the market should swiftly move below 5444 in the first 15 days of the next daily cycle.However if recent highs are taken out in the next half cycle then we should easily see 59xx levels before September end. More Importantly the bigger picture would turn bullish for the next IT cycle due between October to January.

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Price n Time

Here is an updated profile chart to the one which was posted yesterday

The market has remained sideways and 22800 and 23175 continue to be short term reference points.

A strong bull market consolidates rather than corrects after a big run up. We may be witnessing that consolidation now. I still maintain that 30 % upside I spoke about earlier this month, 10 of which have already been done!

OrderFlow :

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Gold OrderFlow

Nifty Future chart July Series :

Perspective : This market is clearly balancing with short volatile move in either direction failing to resolve the impasse.


Back Ground
:- A sideways movement as evidenced by a side-on Point of control (POC)

Chart Speak :

– Yesterday, we started the day on a 3 I concept which gives high odds for the market to make important lows in the first hour of the day.
– The market made it’s lows in the first 15 minutes before a rally in the first half which was met by selling pressure at higher levels.
– On global cues, the market is expected to gap up. We consider a gap to be an open outside the previous day’s range. It is important to see the market’s reaction to the gap( if one happens). You can read about gaps here
– 5607 separates the two distributions seen on 20/ 7 where heavy selling volumes had occurred.
– 5618 is PR3 for the day and prime resistance.

The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com

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Nifty Road Map 22/07/2011

Here is a profile chart showing Gold traded on the MCX at current price at 4.30 IST.

Back on July 9th, I had spoken about multi month lows being put in Gold and a profile chart which projected moves to new highs for the year ( already done)

The intra chart posted above projects strength now above 23170 which should easily put 23220 within reach immediately.

Over the weekend I’ll put up a bigger intermediate term chart, which clearly shows that this is the biggest bull market across popular instruments traded currently

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Gold Intra

Here is the OrderFlow chart of BN for the past 2 days.

We use this mechanical trading system in line with the analysis and the knowledge we have from Market profile.The OrderFlow is a conservative estimate of the buying and selling power of the market intra day, with a red denoting sellers in control.Once a signal is generated it needs to be part- booked at the closest PS1/ PS2/ PS 3 if short or PR1/ PR 2/ PR 3 if long.

Along with these signals, today’s trade was an easy 80 % rule trade day which went on to hit it’s objective at VAL in both the Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty.You can read about the 80 % rule trade in this post here. With an 80 % success ratio this rule cannot be overlooked.

A third point which I wanted to point out was the inability of the market to stay above PP0 in the first hour of trade. The PP0 represents a redefined value point for the day, with a market staying above PP0 being positive and a market below PP0 to be red.

Here is a 60 min intra day chart for the past 2 weeks which explains the importance of the PP0. Profits are to be booked at ps1/ ps2/ ps3 or pr1/ pr2/ pr3.

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Orderflow BN

Nifty Future chart July Series :

Perspective : This market is clearly balancing with short volatile moves last week in either direction failing to resolve the impasse.

Back Ground :- Larger bracket is seen between 5511 and 5675 with 5593 as the pivot for the week on closing basis.

Chart Speak :

– A normal distribution mostly within the value area of friday
– The lower volumes and lack of participation made it an “inside day”
– On an inside day we trade a break of value and range, as we wait for information that new activity wants to come and move the markets from current value.
– 5594 continues to be our reference point to the upside.
– 5547 would be watched on the downside.


The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com

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Nifty Road Map 19/07/2011

Nifty Future chart July Series :

Perspective : This market is clearly balancing with short volatile moves last week in either direction failing to resolve the impasse.


Back Ground
:On Friday, we spoke about “5584-90 zone as a pivot for the day’s trading around which a move to 5636 or 5547/ 5531 can take place” The first part of the move was over within the first few minutes of trade. We continue to see 5593 as an important pivot for this week.


Chart Speak
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– A b shaped profile, with a larger part of the auction below the previous day’s POC.
– Day’s value area 5598-5571 is important for new moves.
– Larger bracket is seen between 5511 and 5675 with 5593 as the pivot for the week.

The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com

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Nifty Road Map 18/07/2011

Nifty Future chart July Series :

Perspective : After the sell-off yesterday afternoon, most traders were scrambling to check the wires and the channels for news which had caused the slide to happen. That’s the kind of effect news driven environments have on traders and we are in one right now, so traders should not let go off their guard.

On another note, the warning from S&P and Moody’s on US debt needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, as these same agencies had declared mortgage based securities AAA before the credit crisis began. Overall it leaves me wondering whether they are just leaving the dour open for the FED to unofficially do another QE3 as the US fed will have to buy all debt finally, junk or otherwise.Incidentally the buying program has been going on for almost two years now.

Back Ground : We spoke about 5550 to support the market and ” above 5621, 5645 and 5668 can be done”. The highs of the day were at 5667.

Chart Speak :

– A 3 I day which gave up all gains at the close, something expected from the market the following session.
– a Large value area would mean a consolidating kind of day
– we see 5584-90 zone as a pivot for the day’s trading around which a move to 5636 or 5547/ 5531 can take place.
– larger bullish move can happen over 5636 to take the market to 5688.

The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com

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Profile charts for 15th July