Month: July 2011

Nifty Future chart July Series :

Perspective : A inside day in NF July with a distribution which ended in a bell shaped curve with a prominent POC.
A inside day is generally crated when longer time frame players are not very active in the market and the trading is dominated by short term day time frame players.On such days value gets defined very clearly and generally the next one or two sessions can create big movements as longer time frame players enter the market depending on how they see the value developed.

Back Ground : We spoke about the single prints at 5687-5702 resisting up moves. The day high was seen at 5690.

Chart Speak :

1) An inside day with distribution in the upper incomplete distribution from friday

2) Monday’s profile shows a prominent POC at 5666

3) The 4 day profile is balancing now in the region between 5615 and 5714 which was a low volume zone in the previous down move.

4) Today’s trade can be between 5682 and 5639 with an easy 20 points if one of the level breaks.


The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com/

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Nifty Road Map 05/07/2011

Nifty Future chart July Series :


Perspective
: The first day of a new series was marked by a lot of cautiousness by both buyers and sellers in the market after a 500 point run-up in less than 2 weeks.There are plenty of triggers in July for market participants to think about which include earnings, impact of end of QE2 on global systems, global commodity cycles and domestic factors like inflation and moderating growth.

Back Ground : We spoke about the failed auction theory in our last post, targets for which were successfully met on the upside as well as downside.

Chart Speak :

1) An initiative seller at 5702 who drove the market lower with success

2) The failed auction point successfully visited and defended at the close.

3) The 5612-5618 zone is primary support for the market now and a close below it will be slightly bearish

4) Lower support is at 5546 for the week and resistances at 5742 and 5808 for the swing trader.

5) any upnmove today can run into resistance at 5687-5702.


The above post is for purpose of education only. Similar charts are posted for the BN, LT, RIL, ICICI, TTM, SBIN everyday on our premium website http://www.vtrender-2.com/

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Nifty Road Map 04/07/2011


This post just appeared as a comment on “Vtrender.com” post of Shai – link here

If you don’t understand failed auction concept, do visit Vandana’s blog on the topic

Shai had earlier in the day posted data about 32 “failed auction” or FA points in Nifty. He successfully carried out a short trade which was based on yesterday’s failed auction at 5620 Nifty July future. Gave us cool 32 points in profit. One more setup based on FA at 5620 remains (buy Nifty as close to 5620 as possible and keep Stoploss at 5605 and target 5720). The trade is not a 100% sure thing just like all other trades but if you can catch it low, the risk-reward ratio is really good.

I got to working with this data EOD and came up with some numbers. Those who don’t know Shai, he runs this trading room complete with real time charts, chat, sms and his trades that he walks you through. Not like those Brokerage analysts who give you a trade with entry price, stoploss and target price but literally “walk you through” the trade. Go to vtrender.com and check his stuff out.

Had an idea around 5 PM that one could use conditional probabilities based on 32 FA points shared by Shai, which is a decent sample size. Here’s a link to the sheet with conditional probs in “boxes”. Basically probability of FA being visited if “not done so far”

Interesting data. Probability is low on day 1 and 2 and day 5 and 6 but really high for days 3 and 4. I have never done a visual analysis of Market Profile with FA in mind but someone who can do so will be probably able to come up with good trading setups based on the same like Shai did. My 2 bits are there in the rightmost 2 columns in above sheet however.

One could develop elaborate plays such as

If FA visit not done on day 1 and day 2….
and Nifty already 100 points up from FA point,
then book profit on existing positional and wait for dip to re-enter
and if Nifty close to FA point,
then be ready to trade breakout of last 3 day range with tight trailing Stoploss

Setups have to be based on observation and experience though. A failed auction near lows may tell a different story from failed auction near highs. Probabilities can only tell us only so much so use with discretion.

Enjoy.

Chandrashekhar

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“Failed Auction Revisit” in Nifty today/ 5260/ July 1, 2011