Month: August 2011

Vtrender > Forum > 2011 > August

Nifty Future chart September Series :


Perspective : Our markets factored in no QE3 from the FED on friday and most participants played for a move lower. We however noticed a poor structure for the last 50 points of the down move. The US markets actually rallied on no news from the FED instead of tanking as everyone feared. The global markets from Asia are reconciling to that move in US markets this morning.

Back Ground :-

1) Huge gap between 5325 and 5233 which is a single print seller.
2) A new IPM from 4817 which will resist all upmoves
3) break of 5 day balanced profile is downwards.

Chart Speak :

– Balanced profile broken downwards.
– structure of the second part of Friday is weak and should be addressed today
– 4817 and 4890 will be resistances to all up moves.
–

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Nifty Road Map 29/08/2011

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Nifty cracked nearly 2% today. The intensity of afternoon selling suggested that sellers were not expecting anything good to come out of FOMC meeting at Jackson Hole today. Bernanke spoke about 3 hours ago and within 10 minutes most markets were down. Nifty had already closed by then so I am talking about S&P, Bonds, Meat, Copper, Crude.

Just after initial nervous selling, a short squeeze began in nearly every tradeable commodity out there. S&P went up to 1176 after failing to break through 1136 level. As of this moment, almost all of above markets are yet to prove that bearishness is over but the intensity of buying is amazing. Its almost as if Ben had to simply show up and finish his speech for trading rooms across the world to go into a buying frenzy! Check the charts yourselves. Visit finviz.com or forexpros.com or any of the million charting sites.

I just checked broad figures of FII selling and buying at NSE today. Yes, FIIs were selling again in cash today but DIIs bought more on net basis for a change. In futures, FIIs were net buyers. So who was selling and to whom and why? Were these retail investors or did DIIs try outdoing FIIs in shorting? Today’s sellers may just end up facing a wall of gap up open on monday morning. Market may come back down eventually but leveraged sellers could have a tough time. Can’t wait for monday morning now!

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Will Nifty shorts find themselves in a hole monday morning?

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Nifty Future chart September Series :


Perspective : All eyes will be on Fed meeting later tonight and larger longer term participants can be expected to remain on the sidelines today as they wait for the decision. In a low confidence environment, it makes sense to remain on the sidelines, till a clear picture emerges.The larger market is in a sideways consolidation mode.

Back Ground :-

1) Huge gap between 5325 and 5233 which is a single print seller.

Chart Speak :

– Balanced profile yesterday within a 5 day balanced structure
– prominent POC at 4866 may stall movement in the initial part
– 4898 is PR1, above which the market turns up for 4932/ 4967
– 4830 is PS1, below which the market may move to 4795.

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Nifty Road Map 26/08/2011

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In one of my previous posts mentioned here, I had made a point that Gold was a parabola and parabolas do not last.

The reasons may have been different, but it was obvious that a big break would come which would send retailers scurrying.

Gold has sold off 2000 points in the last session and a half.

Fortunately for us, our OrderFlow caught the entire move, right near the top.

There was another big one in the other metal- Silver. This one has fetched about 4000 points so far.

I have mentioned several times, that the system of following the buying and selling of the market, is the best indicator of future prices.

The charts above testify.

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OrderFlow Gold

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