Month: September 2011

As we head into the last day of the series tomorrow, I want to first take the opportunity to thank all of you for your inputs and the comments and the many emails you have sent for the contest.

Honestly, the volume of mail has been so much that it will not be possible to declare the winner, right after the close.I will go through all the mails after the close tomorrow and we will have a winner, as the prize goes to the closest prediction and not the exact one.

So on Saturday, one person will have in their inbox a welcome kit to Vtrender Live.

You still have time until tomorrow 12.00 noon to enter the contest or to change your entry.

Those of you who have sent me a range, let me remind you that I asked you to call out the series close and not a range. Please refine your entries to a figure, though I’ll accept a range of 5 points.

We had an inside day in the markets today, with most of the auction in the volume value area of yesterday.Such days tend to give violent breakouts and a break of value confirmed by a break of the previous day’s range is the best way to trade the day tomorrow.

The Vix formula which we employ at Vtrender gives a range of 5022-4860 in the futures for tomorrow, assuming that the vix remains stable for tomorrow and does not jump up and down 10-20 %.

Those who want to look up the calculation can check a post we did on the subject back in March 2010.

There’s another simpler way of calculating the day range. This you do by taking the vix and dividing it by 20 and multiplying it to the previous day’s close which is further divided by 100.

So you get 32 of the vix divided by 20 which is 1.6,  times 4941/ 100 gives us 79 points as the day’s movement tomorrow. If vix increases during the day, the range increases.

So within that 5022- 4860, today’s profile should put the range to 4961-4880.

But as I said in my post yesterday and as was pointed in the comments section by one of our readers, we are living in times of great disconnect between sessions. So it’s best to trade prices off the screen and let the arithmetic of the markets take a back seat.

But for one of you it will do well if you do all these calculations and come close to the expiry figure.

One month of Vtrender Live is the prize.

Winner awaited.

My best wishes….

.

September Expiry.

As we head into the close of Sept series, the market achieved it’s fairest price today.

The fairest price is always a converging developing point of control and a vwap which is a volume weighted average price.

When the two are together, it generally means that buyers and sellers shared honours for the series.

Have a look :

With 2 full sessions to go, the market is conveniently placed.

In the trading room, we have noted the disconnect of one trading session with the next .

The market it seems is playing out in three parts, with a session in the morning from 9.15 to 12.30 , then Europe decides the moves between 12.30 to 3.30 and finally the traders of the US decide the next day’s open by playing out from 3.30 pm to 9.15 the next day.

As you can see it’s kind of hazardous for me to talk about what will happen 2 sessions from now.

But if you are one better, I invite you to take a guess on the expected series close.

… And if you can do a good job out of it, the closest person will get one full month of Vtrender Live- Our Trading room absolutely for free from the coming Monday !!

If you are an existing subscriber and you nail it, you get for your self one month of credit into your next billing cycle.

The rules are simple- There are only 2.

a) Just call out the series close for September

b) You need to do it before 12.00 noon on Thursday 29/09/11.

You can either post your view here or send a mail to vtrender@gmail.com. 

Start thinking…

.

A flat series

Nifty Future September series :
Perspective : All eyes will be on the FED as it announces it’s decision at 11.45 pm our time.Whilst there is no expectation of a QE3 from the markets, pushing the can down the road like they did at Jackson Hole Last month will not help matters. Expectations are that the FED may announce a swap of shorter term government securities to longer dated ones, the size of which should be in the region of $200-$500 billion.
There is usually a modest drift higher the morning of FOMC meetings, then two or three violent whipsaws immediately after.
The day of the decision has been positive 5 out of 7 times, while the day after was positive only 2 out of the 10.
Back Ground : Bracket between 4910- 5170
Chart Speak :

1) Single prints upto 5080 are big support for the market from the longer time frame
2) Structure above 5130 needs a bit of repair and further auction.

.

Nifty Road Map 21/09/11