I’m done sifting through the various entries we had for the September Expiry closing contest.
Honestly I didn’t expect somebody to come so close to calling the series close, especially in view of the dis- jointed movement we have been having over the past few days
But here are the best five entries we received. :
1) Ravi Kumar through email :
Expiry will be near 5000 + _ 10
2) Venkateshan KR through email
Nifty September Series Close expected between 4995-5005
3) Nilesh through Blogger posted here
5034 from me, as it is the lower end of that small range and gap down.
4) Kailash through blogger also posted here
My guess for sep’2011 expiry is 5000 exactly, there may be 5 or 10 points here or there but positions will be at maximum pain @ 5000 so my guess is 5000.
5) Marughar through blogger posted here
5008 is expiry level that what I feel. thanks
Marughar happens to be Zankhu from the trading room.His view was posted last night at 8.00 pm and he held through the down move of the morning.
Congratulations you are the winner!!
As you are an existing subscriber, you just extended your subscription by one month.
We will send you a formal mail confirming the same.
September is done.
We closed at 5015 and there are quite a few guys who have close close to calling it.Off Hand I do remember 2 entries closer to 5005 and 5009, but I will check all the messages before I confirm that.
Once again I want to thank all of you for participating.
We had a great time in the trading room as well with a buy signal at 4930 enough to keep us all in high spirits !!
Overall it was a flat series, with the max returns made by the writers of 500 ce/ pe though some writers of today paid dearly in the end.
I’ll post the results of the contest later this evening.
As we head into the last day of the series tomorrow, I want to first take the opportunity to thank all of you for your inputs and the comments and the many emails you have sent for the contest.
Honestly, the volume of mail has been so much that it will not be possible to declare the winner, right after the close.I will go through all the mails after the close tomorrow and we will have a winner, as the prize goes to the closest prediction and not the exact one.
So on Saturday, one person will have in their inbox a welcome kit to Vtrender Live.
You still have time until tomorrow 12.00 noon to enter the contest or to change your entry.
Those of you who have sent me a range, let me remind you that I asked you to call out the series close and not a range. Please refine your entries to a figure, though I’ll accept a range of 5 points.
We had an inside day in the markets today, with most of the auction in the volume value area of yesterday.Such days tend to give violent breakouts and a break of value confirmed by a break of the previous day’s range is the best way to trade the day tomorrow.
The Vix formula which we employ at Vtrender gives a range of 5022-4860 in the futures for tomorrow, assuming that the vix remains stable for tomorrow and does not jump up and down 10-20 %.
Those who want to look up the calculation can check a post we did on the subject back in March 2010.
There’s another simpler way of calculating the day range. This you do by taking the vix and dividing it by 20 and multiplying it to the previous day’s close which is further divided by 100.
So you get 32 of the vix divided by 20 which is 1.6, times 4941/ 100 gives us 79 points as the day’s movement tomorrow. If vix increases during the day, the range increases.
So within that 5022- 4860, today’s profile should put the range to 4961-4880.
But as I said in my post yesterday and as was pointed in the comments section by one of our readers, we are living in times of great disconnect between sessions. So it’s best to trade prices off the screen and let the arithmetic of the markets take a back seat.
But for one of you it will do well if you do all these calculations and come close to the expiry figure.
One month of Vtrender Live is the prize.
My best wishes….
As we head into the close of Sept series, the market achieved it’s fairest price today.
The fairest price is always a converging developing point of control and a vwap which is a volume weighted average price.
When the two are together, it generally means that buyers and sellers shared honours for the series.
Have a look :
With 2 full sessions to go, the market is conveniently placed.
In the trading room, we have noted the disconnect of one trading session with the next .
The market it seems is playing out in three parts, with a session in the morning from 9.15 to 12.30 , then Europe decides the moves between 12.30 to 3.30 and finally the traders of the US decide the next day’s open by playing out from 3.30 pm to 9.15 the next day.
As you can see it’s kind of hazardous for me to talk about what will happen 2 sessions from now.
But if you are one better, I invite you to take a guess on the expected series close.
… And if you can do a good job out of it, the closest person will get one full month of Vtrender Live- Our Trading room absolutely for free from the coming Monday !!
If you are an existing subscriber and you nail it, you get for your self one month of credit into your next billing cycle.
The rules are simple- There are only 2.
a) Just call out the series close for September
b) You need to do it before 12.00 noon on Thursday 29/09/11.
You can either post your view here or send a mail to email@example.com.
We had a trend day in the markets today.
My good friend Viren used to say always- ” No target is too big for a trend day “
The day is marked always by a slower open which gives a very small IB , but the momentum picks up through the day climaxing at the very end !
For those of you who are wondering how our Orderflow did on a day like today- well it picked up the short moves on Wednesday itself and remained Red as Buyers were simply out-smarted in price today.
The moves of the market were picked at 5038 on Monday, we converted on Wednesday and Order flow kept us loyal to the trend right through the day ‘s close today.
Same example in the BankNifty also today.
In sum, if you want to kick the habit of losing money in the markets- just trade the Order flow.
1) Single prints upto 5080 are big support for the market from the longer time frame
2) Structure above 5130 needs a bit of repair and further auction.