Month: December 2011

12 End 2011 Offer

Fellow Trader,

If you have been trading these markets for any amount of time, you would have noticed that currently the markets favor traders over investors by a stretch.

Come 2012, it will not change much.

If you are quick, disciplined and in a position to take some risk, there are great profits waiting to be made in 2012.

All you need is a great trading system, some live charts which you can peep into at anytime and a good community to support your decision making,

This is what VtrenderLive can bring to your trading in 2012.

  • -Full Fledged Trading Room
  • -Live Streaming Charts
  • -Live auto generated Buy/ Sell signals
  • -Signals sent to twitter and/or phones
  • -Market Analysis
  • -Trading Range
  • -Live Calls
  • -Trades On NSE Indices & MCX Commodities
  • -Interpretation for trades
  • -Support for existing Positions
  • -Chat Room
  • -Community Support
  • -Private website for subscribers

All this for a nominal INR 3999/- per month only.You can find details of our offer at Vtrender Subscriptions

Since we had a great year and are looking forward to an exciting 2012, we are now sweetening this offer for you.

Here’s the deal-

If you subscribe by Dec 30th, the last trading day of this year then,

a) On one month’s subscription we will add another 10 days free
b) On 3 months’ qtrly subscription we will add another 20 days free
c) On 6 months’ semi- annual offer we will add another 30 days free.
d) On 12 months annual offer we will add another 60 days free.

Subscriptions can be sent to the ICICI Bank account given in the link above or paid directly to Paypal links on to your right.

The free days will be calendar days added to whatever subscription period you choose.

So hurry. This is a limited period offer and will end on Fri- Dec 30th.


End 2011 Offer

Nifty Mp6 Profile Check

Here is a chart of the Nifty profile showing two composite profiles from the week 12/12 to 15/12 and week from 19/12 to 20/12.

Both of these composites were balances and will have important implications going forward.

The Profile dated 16/12 shows a move to the top of the balanced profile which failed and resulted  in a [panic bottom, in the next 2 sessions at 4537. It is important to note that again we saw evidence of a failed move producing a fast move in the opposite direction.

As we say at Vtrender often- from Failed moves come fast moves .

This profile will be an important reference point for the market’s behavior now.

Coming to the other balanced profile in the chart on 19/12 and 20/12 we are witness to a move which has created value higher. Also note the Buying efforts late on Friday and early this morning in the form of the single prints. The migration of value higher and the single prints at the base of  the profile are pointing to us that buyers continue to dominate the landscape in the short term.

We would have to see if sellers come back into the equation. This will be visible from a value which starts going sideways to down,, single prints at the top of the profile and a close below Value area low.

Till then it is safe to assume that buyers control the short term and any trades taken on the opposite side will be highly speculative.


Profile check

Here is the updated chart to the one which ws posted this morning

Nifty Mp5 Trend 21/12/11

One of the basic rules of market profile state that if a markets stays above Value area high, it implies that buyers are in control of the day’s action.

4617 which was the value we were tracking was never really broken though it was tested several times.

In the ends, the shorts were forced to cover, as nervousness on global greens prevailed

The OrderFlow was a buy since 9.15 am and the trend is in the chart below.

Em Nf 112 Trend 21/12/11


trend 21/12/11

Here is a 2 day profile of the NF:

Nifty Mp11 Market In Balance

The market is clearly in balance.

2 choices await our trading today :

1) The value area rule which will mean a trip back into the value area from current levels.The 2 day value area is the green lines and it’s the current lows of NF based on trading activity at 10.20 am .

2) Break of value and range which should set up the imbalance again.

Remember it’s balance to imbalance back to balance.

The Imbalance from Friday has been rectified and we are back in the mood to be in imbalance again.


Market in Balance

Here is a mini composite profile from yesterday’s morning session.

Nifty Mp4 Mini Composite

a) Shows the market balancing off the big move from Friday
b) shows a small short covering which took the market to gap fill and day highs late in the afternoon.

c) Shows the morning session and early rejection of the drive from noon yesterday.The move down was however arrested at the POC from yesterday.

From the post of yesterday-

“So far this morning we have seen a reaction off the lows of 4565 to 4598 or about 33 points. Still not quite there for the buyers yet.

What I expect to see later is for buyers to step up and take the market to twice reaction target of 66 points. This will show me evidence that buyers are interested at current prices. Failure to do so will keep the swing down”
Broader view : 
The buyers did show up and take the market to 4598 + 33 = 4631 which was what we expected for the noon session yesterday.The high of the day was 4633 incidentally.
The current activity above POC keeps the small up bias intact, but we need a decisive move out of value and range for the upmove to now continue. This would mean an auction back up above 4633.
At 4561 we saw a failed auction yesterday. Should the market succeed in taking that low out, all bets on the long side will be out.


Mini Composite

Nifty Mp3 Profile Check

Markets trend 30% of the time, but these 30% moves result in the most profitable times for day and swing traders.

These are the kind of moves generated by longer time frame players and generally come out of balance zones. They also come 1 or 2 sessions after a neutral day and hence we give neutral days a lot of importance at Vtrender.

The above profile shows a 2 day balance zone between 4730 and 4848 NF.

On Thursday morning, I had tweeted out this message-

4731/42 are lower ends of 3 day balance zone. After a neutral day possibility of new trend is higher

However later that day, the market reversed above the 4731 mark and went through the entire balance area the next day covering what we popularly call the value area rule or the 80% rule.

But there was a reversal later on Friday below 4730 and the markets went into imbalance immediately.

This is the truth of Market profile- Markets always go from balance to imbalance as buyers and sellers jostle for their perception of value.

What happens now?

The gap down open confirms a market still in Imbalance mode. The evidence we want to see if is a D shaped profile showing buyers coming back into the equation.

On Friday as the market moved out of the balance zone it put in an uncorrected swing of 180 points. Such uncorrected swings are generally the start or the end of a new trend.

The biggest reaction on that one way down by the buyers was 4626 to 4660 or about 34 points.

So far this morning we have seen a reaction off the lows of 4565 to 4598 or about 33 points. Still not quite there for the buyers yet.

What I expect to see later is for buyers to step up and take the market to twice reaction target of 66 points. This will show me evidence that buyers are interested at current prices. Failure to do so will keep the swing down.

Looking ahead to the week, a retouch of the balance zone and breakdown level of 4730 if and when it materialises will be another opportunity to get short into the markets.Above that the high volume node of 4848 will be a big resistance as we have seen all through the week.

For the day time frame players, we are watching 4624- the gap fill zone and the high volumes at 4627 for reactions. Lower down our immediate targets for the day are 4536 and 4523.

The Orderflow has kept us ahead of the trends.

Here is the updated record.

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Profile check