Month: March 2012
The Month of March is over and we clocked a 1000 + change in NF.
This is for one lot with a stop as given by the alerts of the OrderFlow system and the target also derived from the same.
Our Prime levels tell us where to get off and where to keep our stops. This works in conjunction with the OrderFlow messaging and the two cannot be separated. The Prime levels are updated on the Today page and are availble to all readers everyday.
Together with the alerts delivered by OrderFlow, we have a winning combination as these figures show ;
The performance for the reamining instruments is on the Home Page under the "Latest" block as "Track Record"
Here are the Nifty and the BankNifty futures charts showing the movement in the indices through TPO's and their realtions to the monthly developing value and the Point of control.
In the charts below the yellow region is the value area and the Purple horizontal line is the fairest price also called the Point of Control.
The black horizontal lines are the High volume nodes from previous price points.
The bluish purple on the right is the developing structure.
Every day in the chart is represented by a new colour.
Here are the updated composite profiles.
In the chart above we have a composite profile on the left which considers the entire distribution of volume from the swing highs of 5670 NF March.
We also have green horizontal lines coming from this profile which represent the high volume points.
There are two vwap's one in Orange running from 5670 with it's standard deviations in light green.
The second vwap is in yellow and represents the seller from the session just before the budget day.
Thus the chart takes into consideration the first and the second sell offs.
The white bar running across the chart is the composite POC or the highest volume transacted for the entire selloff
It still stands at 5380.
We are seeing that the current levels in NF are at the bottom end of the two Vwap bands hence the market is not getting new sellers here as risk-reward is not very good for new shorts.
The yellow vwap does include a possibility of a move to 5150, but nothing more.
We have noted that reversion to the mean setups have worked well all through the month. They always work in balanced markets by the way.
The charts above show the profiles of the NF and the BNF ( daily) with the POC in dark blue.
A rising POC is the sign of an uptrending market whereas a POC going sideways is a sign of a market in a sideways or a consolidation mode.
In keeping with the Steidlmayer distribution theory we are in step two of the three step process between a balance and an Imbalance in the markets.
The markets always go from imbalance to balance and we may be witness to the end of the second stage of balance currently if the lower prices of the morning hold.
It's been a little over 18 months, since we started the trading room at Vtrender which we call Vtrender Live.
Our purpose was very simple- To provide you real time streaming charts which could explain the role played by Buyers and Sellers in the marketplace as also to provide to you a platform which could answer all questions you would have had about the market in real time.
It's been a learning and a growing curve for us. We started with a simple display of charts, introduced automated alerts in the room and outside to your phones, started 4 new instruments at the MCX and in the process moved from a 9- 3.30 pm offering to a 9- 11.55 pm one currently.
Throughout all that, we worked diligently to keep costs under control whist investing in network infrastructure and technology platforms.We've now reached a stage where we have to consider an increase in the subscription costs to ensure that you continue to enjoy the same value proposition as before whilst we continue to strengthen and re-invest for the future.
Effective April 2nd, 2012, our new rates to the Trading room will be as under :
- Monthly subscription – INR 5600/-
- Quarterly subscription- INR 14999/-
- Annual subscription- INR 45999/-
You will continue to enjoy all the services you have been used to through this time as well as a few more we will introduce through this year.
Let me quickly clarify here, that this increase does not affect our existing subscribers and those on a current plan with us.If your current plan is running out in the next few weeks, you can top up before 31st March and enjoy our current rates.
For new subscribers, the increase kicks in only on April 2nd.
If you have been contemplating on joining our Trading room, you still have a window of 8 days to join us at current rates.
Here are the OrderFlow charts for the day.
The day's down move began when Vwap was broken to the downside. A retest followed, which was again met by selling and the Sell signal had it's way.
And just reproducing here the comment stream from the Trading room as we watched the market flow.
( You may have to click twice within the chart to see the image)
One of the things I look forward to everyday is to interact with our wonderful community at Vtrender in the trading room. The joy of clocking a good trade increases manifold when I know that there are several others who have made the same good trade.
The markets are our primary focus and I take a lot of pride in having real time communication with our subscribers whilst looking at streaming charts on the screen.
At Vtrender it's always been about getting this communication going, and we always felt that we were more than just sending buy/ sell signals to all.
Come to think of it, it would have been very easy and simpler, but in the financial world we live in, we felt it was better to not just send alerts on the markets at important points, but also give you the opportunity to login and see for your self how the market and the alert was playing out, besides giving you a window to ask any question if you had on the market or other wise.
Here's a look at the charts we keep in the room-
A closer look at the same screen through the chat window which helps you communicate with us in real time.
I do chat a lot in the room and try to offer a real time perspective to the market action as it unfolds.
Trust me, it's not easy to do that in real time, but our winning methodology ensures that we look at the markets objectively and understand what the buyer and the seller is doing.We restrict ourselves to only one methodology- Market profile, as it helps to uncomplicate matters and has answers to all the questions thrown by the market. Somebody once said- If you want to cross these Oceans, ensure that you have both legs in one boat only.
Here's a look at what transpired in the room yesterday. Just some of my comments.
In our last update using the composite charts we had posted on Monday-
That vwap band is currently extended at 2 standard deviations off mean which give a 5 % probability to a new move below current lows.So a small pull back may be due here.
Today's charts show that the pull back worked out perfectly in the "reversion to the mean" trades we have been tracking.
These kind of trades work best when the market is balancing or is not in a trending mode.
The chart above shows a composite POC in white which is flat and the orange vwap line again flattening.
Today's close brings the market back to it's mean price and the open tomorrow will have cues for the market to stay above or below this all important reference point.
The BN profile shows a move above the vwap lines , but it was a spike in the last hour of the day which made it possible.
Spike rules apply in BN at the open tomorrow.
Here are some profile charts of Gold , Silver, Copper and Crude
The blue lines in the chart are High Volume points and overhead resistance. Click inside the chart to enlarge
A sliding POC ( blue horizontal bars) shows that there is not enough value buying happening in silver currently. Trend remains down as long as blue points down.
Copper has an ascending POC which shows buyers in control of the market. Chart shows that all dips to the POC have been bought.
The high volume zone from last week is the support as value is being established higher in crude this week.