Month: April 2012

Vtrender > Forum > 2012 > April

These charts were posted last night in the premium section, but are still relevant

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The first day of the new series was welcomed by initiative buyers, then responsive sellers and then again responsive buying ( short covering) to have the markets close at the previous day's POC.

 

Since POC is considered the fairest price, the net result of the session was that buyers and sellers finished equals, not a good result considering that the market has been range bound for over a month.

 

 

We noticed in our earlier chart on Volume profile on how shorts are holding at higher levels. However we are also seeing that they are covering at the bottom of the bracket closer to 5160- 5180 levels.

 

One should be quick to take profits in such a market as a trending move is very elusive and not worth waiting for.

 

Friday's high at 5252 was the vwap for the month and a move above the HVN at 5262 would set the NF up for a positive week which should see higher levels of 5340. The seller is expected to be back around that level.

 

 

In the BN the seller at 10260 was once again dominant and pushed the index lower. If the BN manages to get above the 10270-10330 zone, it should get the next 120 points easily.

 

Overall in both charts we have noted an absence of a upper range extension in the past 6 sessions. If we do get an upper IB extension on Monday, it will mark a change and show that buyers want to push the index higher.

 

Tuesday is a holiday for the markets.

 

Profile View for today

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Here are some stats on the daily movement of everyone’s favorite trading instrument- The Nifty.

 

If you are an intra day trader or carry positions at STBT or BTST then you need to look at these charts again.

 

The charts are smoothed using an SMA to 3 to even out the data.

 

The charts are from June 2018 to Nov 2019 and envelop in a 15 month trading range.

 

Nifty average daily High- Low range :

 

The highest range has contracted from a  high of 180 to about 120 today

 

Nifty average relative volume :

 

The average daily volume traded is around 19 million . We monitor this figure in the trading room to look for OTF ( Other/ Longer time frame) activity.

 

Movements from Open Price :

 

The average move away from the Open price is about 77 today

 

Open- Previous High (low)  :

 

The market opens in the previous day’s range about 85% of the time

 

The difference between two successive closes has rarely been more than 60 points.

 

% time market stayed in previous day range :

About 10% of the time the market stays in the previous day range

 

We use statistics to back up our knowledge of the auction process and to gauge probabilities of what the market can do next.

 

For more information on how to use the information from the Market Profile and generate actionable trading strategies join up for a Level 2 model of advanced Market Profile strategies.  Visit- Vtrender Trading Room

Nifty daily stats ( 1 )

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Here's a TPO chart of 30 minutes duration for the 16 sessions traded in the month of April so far

 

 

 

 

The value flow for the month has been sideways and currently stands at 5244-5348-5354.

 

The market has not made any progress above the upper value area and has not found new selling below the lower value area so far this month.

 

We are very close to the 5169 support as of today's close .Selling will accelerate only on a move below 5168.

 

 

April TPO chart

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Here is an update to the chart posted yesterday

 

 

The past 2 sessions have not seen any excess which tells us that there is no OTF present now.

 

Big money is still on the sidelines .

 

The range for the month is just about 220 points.

 

WE are trading an inside day profile where an exit of value and range would mean that the longer Time frame may just step in to the new value.

 

If the break of range is good, we have an auction probing higher/ lower for new buyers/ sellers as the case may be. If it is rejected and comes back inside then it will probe on the opposite side.

 

Exit  of range is the best risk-reward for directional trading.Exit of value will provide the first clue.

Not going anywhere

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Here are the trades sent out today :

 

1) Sell BN 10630-10640, Sl 10679, tgt 10580/ 10530

2012-04-18 11:23:00

Exit BN shorts 10645- 10655.Market not showing any movement.

2012-04-18 11:56:00

 

2) Sell NF below 5339, sl 5355, tgt 5320/ 5305

2012-04-18 12:37:00

Exit NF short trade now at 5250/52

2012-04-18 13:27:00

 

One of the principles we follow is to cut the trade fast if it is not going immediately to plan. In hindsight we could have got both trades on tgt.

 

OrderFlow Charts of the past 4 days :

 

We have been locked in a 140 point range in the past 4 days. During these the OF produced 5 signals, one of which whipsawed immediately after the RBI announcement.

 

The trades taken were :

 

1)Sell NIFTY @ 5293 on friday

Covered same day part according to this message -NIFTY : at ps3 @ 5235 at 13:59:09

Gain- 58 points on first lot

 

2) Buy NIFTY @ 5245 at 13:02:28 on Monday

Covered next day according to this message – : NIFTY : at pr2 @ 5308 at 11:01:04

Gain- 63 points on first lot

 

3) Sell NIFTY @ 5253 on tuesday

Reversed same day at 5288

Loss- 35 points

 

4) Buy NIFTY @ 5288 at 14:01:55

Covered today part according to this message – : NIFTY : at pr1 @ 5361 at 09:54:54

Gain- 73 points

 

In all even with the whipsaw the trades would have clocked you a net gain of 159 points if you strictly went by the messages delivered to your phones or even the twitter tab,

 

Short point is follow the system.

 

We do not advertise our system anywhere else. You will not find us on other blogs or even Google ads. We are not looking for followers or subscribers. We just are a happy bunch of traders trading these markets as you do and happier to share a bit of what we know.

Come join us if you believe in our ways and we will show you how it can be done.

 

Viren’s trades/ OrderFlow in NF

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Here are the trades given on Viren's 20-40 advisory today.

 

Trades are chosen from the market profile methodology and by using sound principles of money management to put risk -reward in your favor

 

1) Sell BN 10570-10580, sl 10620, tgt 10500. Trade 50 % qty only.

2012-04-17 11:14:00

BN at tgt 1 10500. Book profits.

2012-04-17 11:24:00

 

2) Sell NF 5265- 5268, sl 5284, tgt 5247/ 5235

2012-04-17 12:00:00

Cover 50 % position near 5252 now and move stop to cost on balance

2012-04-17 12:30:00

Exit balance holding in NF at cmp. low made is 5239 against our tgt 2 of 5235

2012-04-17 12:41:00

 

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20-40 trades of today ( 17th april)

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