Month: May 2012
We came into the morning session with a sell call in the Nifty at 4975 yesterday and a sell in the BN at 9640.
Both calls were generated near the close, as the seller moved in.
Today's profile is Neutral extreme in the NF and a move below today's low will keep the sell intact.
Here is the composite profile for the current UP auction along with the vwap of the structure
The Market profile theory states that every period of imbalance ( a trending move) is followed by a period of balance where prices will consolidate and form value.
We are seeing the biggest volume developing currently at 4980 NF.
This is the balance developing and an end of the previous auction. From here another move should begin which is another period of imbalance.
That's the market flow always : imbalance to balance back to imbalance.
Here is the Profile chart on the Nifty May future
We had a neutral extreme day in the markets today.. The closing was on a spike higher. Generally such days require an open above the day high for continuation the next day.
Should that not be the case, the spike zone can be auctioned. Also the failure of the DPOC to rise would mean that a move back to test 4940 will be on the anvil.
That's shorter term, but on a larger level, the ability of the market to stay above 4940 tomorrow will put it back to test the bracket lows of April at 5160 zone.
We are seeing value going higher and the market doing range extensions on the upside. As long as the NF stays above the VAH of the previous day this will continue as a process.
Now that we have made new 2012 lows in the Euro/ USD pair, let's look at what lies below. Data courtesy Viren ( @virenrasquinia)
1) 1.3050 worked as support in April 2012 and also in March,
2) 1.2873 is the previous 2011 low set in January
3) 1.2660 was a double bottom during January 2012
4) 1.2623 is the previous 2012 low and remains important, now as resistance.
5) 1.2330 is another historical level made in October following the global financial meltdown in 2008
6) 1.2144 was the level two years ago, when Greece received its first bailout.
7) 1.17 was the level of the launch value of the euro to the dollar in 1999.
8) And finally 0.8227 is the life time low level hit in October 2000.
Further a weekly chart shows that more bottoms have happened in July in the Euro than any other month.
Please refer to the instructions to read the chart in the post made on 23rd May : https://www.vtrender.com/content/composite-picture-usdinr
In the previous chart we saw that the move was extended and was above the 2SD line of vwap. It meant that those longs were not enjoying value and could be pushed out easily.
We also spoke about 55.54 as the first objective which was met today.
Today's downmove halted at the LVN in pink shown in the above chart.
Below this level we will see a movement towards 54.65 mentioned ion the previous post.
The scenario is still a classic reversion to the mean set up after a parabolic move higher. As noted the short term was extended and once the index pulls down it will be a classic buying opportunity for higher levels .
Longer term we see 53.75- 53.97 as strong support for any falls and as long as these two levels are protected, this index has a big risk to run even higher.
The OrderFlow system had printed a BUY yesterday at 4815.
We knew the open would be around the close as we had a prominent POC which always gets a visit the next day. After a touch at the POC immediately after the IB the NF raced straight up, covering last week's value area in the process.
Today's move again met all our parameters for the buy viz vwap/ dpoc / vah etc.
A little bit of attention paid to inter market relationships also helps when you know what the OrderFlow is elsewhere like in Currency etc .
Here is a composite profile of USDINR showing a profile from Jan and a second profile from May.
View of the chart is short term.
From the left :
a) In Blue is the larger composite volume structure from January. This shows the high volume zones in green and low volume zones in pink as horizontal lines.
b) A second profile in yellow is on the right and shows the structure from 07/05 which ended the drop from 54.17 to 52.91.This depicts the volume by price of the rise from 52.91. dated 07/05 as a new auction.
c) We have vwap in blue from this same point with 2 standard deviations ( SD) above and below
d) The purple is the POC ( point of control ) of the profile from 07/05
e) The white horizontal line is the POC of the larger composite from January.
The chart shows that the current price at 56.05 is large and extended and way above the 2SD line . It's not been backed up by a big increase in volume.
55.54 is the first objective on any move lower, followed by a test at 54.65.
The lack of movement in the 2 POC's towards the resting price is an indication that the new price is not value
It tells me that short term inventory is extremely long at this point and short term traders are piling on to the bandwagon with no regards to risk . Longs from lower levels will consider moving out now leaving the train to new entrants .
Again not an indication that price will not move higher, but a safe trader will not see current prices as a good scenario to trade with fresh longs..
*** Shai **, Welcome to the Vtrender conference room!
[08:54] Pasi C: GM all
[09:02] Jitender Chhabra: GM Shai & friends…
[09:02] Shai C: GM all
[09:02] Jitender Chhabra: Hi Rm,Pasi:-)
[09:02] Jitender Chhabra: Shai…wat levl to short USDINR…
[09:03] r m: Good Morning folks!
[09:03] r m: Hi Pasi, JC, Shai 🙂
[09:04] Shai C: Jitendra 56.5 is still expected
[09:04] Jitender Chhabra: k….
[09:04] Shai C: but we have to be careful now as dollar is making new highs too
[09:04] Jitender Chhabra: tx
[09:11] Vicky M: GM everyone 🙂
[09:12] Vicky M: hello RM 🙂 Shai 🙂 JC
[09:12] Shai C: 4852 is ref for all longs. No upmove poss till that is taken out
[09:12] Shai C: Hi Vicky
[09:12] Shares Trader: Hello All…GM
[09:13] r m: Hi Vicky, ST 🙂
[09:13] Vicky M: hi ST 🙂
[09:13] Vicky M: Shai.. we are heading to 4788 ?
[09:15] Shai C: yes
[09:18] Jitender Chhabra: Hi Vicky…
[09:23] Pasi C: Hi jc
[09:25] Shai C: auction below pdl
[09:26] Shai C: lots of uncertainty in the currency mkts now
[09:26] Shai C: yen, dollar, euro and INR all news driven
[09:27] Shai C: has an indirect effect on equities
[09:27] j g: we can have steeper falls – because in such times only big players make huge money – here bears have a genuine reason
[09:27] j g: even if mkt tanks 1000 pts in 3 days – no one will question or doubt
[09:28] Shai C: let's be careful. these are difficult times
[09:36] j g: NS having a premium is baffling – what could be the reasons shai?
[09:41] Shai C: June 17th is the election in Greece. Global money will watch that result
[09:42] Shai C: yes JG same thing as having a discount, got to do with cost of carry, then expected dividends etc etc
[09:44] Shai C: OAOR
[09:45] Shai C: 4830 to4852 is one possibility the other being 4808- 4788
[09:51] Pasi C: 4808 coming
[09:57] Shai C: still roatations around vwap/dpoc
[09:59] jiignesh -: silver chart plz
[10:02] jiignesh -: silver snached almost 2k
[10:08] Shai C: @ RM does NSE have a plan to introduce options for the other currencies?
[10:08] r m: have not read about that, probably not much demand for other currencies
[10:09] jiignesh -: GM all
[10:09] r m: Hi jiignesh
[10:09] jiignesh -: hi r m
[10:14] j g: rs. does 50 paise everyday – at this rate – it will reach 70 in a month – that is waht Pakistan rs. is at present 1 $ = 70 rs.
[10:18] r m: @jg, but that makes life very simple na! Just short INR every morning at 9AM and cover at 5PM, then you will be totall hedged against USDINR movement 🙂
[10:26] j g: short? or buy?
[10:30] r m: usd buy, inr short
[10:32] r m: Buying USDINR futures is like shorting INR
[10:32] j g: ok
[10:33] r m: don't take me seriously, was just joking on your observations about INR losing 50 paisa value everyday 🙂
[10:33] Shai C: that break below IB is not good in NF as BN remained higher
[10:33] Shai C: need to see both do it together
[10:34] Shai C: still no OTF post open
[10:38] j g: the best would be hang on the positions taken on red of?
[10:40] Shai C: yes
[10:40] Shai C: 4853 is swing sl
[10:48] j g: shai which level wud create stampede in bulls? 4775?
[10:50] Shai C: Bulls – are there any left?
[10:50] Shai C: it's just bears and there short covering
[10:51] Shai C: People still holding stocks for months are ignorant of market action
[10:51] Shai C: I mean they don't follow it daily
[10:54] Shai C: big addition at 4700 pe
[10:54] Shai C: but 4800 pe is still not cutting
[10:55] r m: USD breaks out
[10:55] j g: is that bullish?
[10:57] j g: some foreign funds might be taking rs. down ? political nexus ?
[10:57] Jitender Chhabra: shai wats yr brok for currency/lot…
[10:58] r m: @jg, mostly it is USD demand from importers, largest being oil marketing companies
[10:58] Shai C: abt 3 paise
[10:58] Jitender Chhabra: k..tx, mine is 5 per lot….
[10:58] j g: ok
[10:59] Shai C: intra move is abt 20 paise
[10:59] Shai C: so try to reduce it
[11:00] Jitender Chhabra: is it 3 paise per lot…
[11:01] Shai C: yes roughly
[11:01] Jitender Chhabra: k..tx
[11:02] r m: @JC, rkg is 1 rs per lot and Zerodha is 20 rs per order or .01% whichever is less
[11:02] Jitender Chhabra: sure…tx
[11:06] Pasi C: NF may print sell now
[11:06] Jitender Chhabra: shai..es hit 1329(apprx) & came back…so back to 1287 now..
[11:07] Pasi C: chances of trend day ?@shai
[11:08] Shares Trader: wht Subbu sir doing ?
[11:08] r m: early lunch 🙂
[11:08] Shai C: Pasi I'll like to see BN lower also
[11:09] Jitender Chhabra: @ST…tere r reports abt $20bn being already exhausted by RBI till now with no effect.
[11:09] Pasi C: u mean BN not in sink with NF/@shai
[11:10] Shai C: yes
[11:13] Jitender Chhabra: [11:06] Jitender Chhabra: shai..es hit 1329(apprx) &amp; came back…so back to 1287 now..
[11:13] r m: That 20bn $ has also sucked out Rupee liquidity from markets, RBI will be buying govt securities thru OMO on friday
[11:13] Jitender Chhabra: :=
[11:14] r m: to provide liquidity
[11:15] Jitender Chhabra: i just hope all this is rotating money & not one way out of India…
[11:16] r m: old news – http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rupee-liquidity-rbi-to-buyback-g-secs-worth-rs-12000cr_707879.html
[11:16] Jitender Chhabra: k…
[11:16] Shai C: Did we hit 1329 yesterday
[11:17] Shai C: there is weakness below 1309 today, should tgt 1301 again and below that 1295
[11:17] Jitender Chhabra: i think the high was1328.5
[11:17] Shai C: ok
[11:17] Jitender Chhabra: tx Shai
[11:18] Shares Trader: thr is also news of Bank NPA incrased by 54%
[11:18] Shares Trader: real reason to worry
[11:20] j g: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Reebok-alleges-Rs-8700cr-fraud-by-sacked-MD-COO/articleshow/13401909.cms
[11:24] Jitender Chhabra: indians r best with jugaad….
[11:25] j g: it takes special balls ( a la raju) to do a 9000 cr fraud
[11:27] Jitender Chhabra: j g..know sumbody higher up in reebok…its actually a 500-800cr fraud. The fig of 8700 cr is being pushed thru media to write off sum bad no's in books.
[11:39] Shai C: 4792
[11:39] Shai C: BN still at IBL wheras NF made 2IB
[11:45] Shai C: No w Bn is moving lower
[11:47] Pasi C: nf tgt shai
[11:53] Shai C: abt 4766 now
[11:53] Shai C: usd-inr- perma bull
[11:54] Shai C: every dip is being bought
[12:00] Pasi C: "no need to worry till 60 " I red in one news paper
[12:00] r m: 🙂
[12:00] Shai C: U have to be carefull when you see those headlines
[12:01] Pasi C: 🙂
[12:01] Shai C: It generally marks the end of a bull run
[12:01] Shai C: there's a lot of trading interst suddenly in USDINR
[12:02] r m: in the end retail will be left holding all the RBI Dollars 🙂
[12:02] Shai C: Lol
[12:02] Shai C: it's been a parabola from 54 to 56
[12:08] Shai C: vwap
[12:09] Shai C: just befor e eu open
[12:09] Shares Trader: http://i50.tinypic.com/312ehdh.png
[12:10] Shai C: 55.95- 55.88- 55.84 needs to be broken in that order for USDINR to come lower
[12:11] r m: Thanks ST
[12:11] Shares Trader: frm Nest RM
[12:12] r m: yes ST, i feel envious 🙂
[12:12] Shares Trader: im getting to knw all new thngs daily 😀
[12:12] r m: you are getting level 2 quotes for free 😀
[12:12] Shares Trader: nothng to envy..i dnt knw hw to use tht stuff
[12:12] Shai C: 31 points
[12:12] Shai C: strongest bounce of the day
[12:13] Vicky M: Shai i am long from 4788 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
[12:13] Vicky M: what shall be the target?
[12:13] Vicky M: 4827 ?
[12:13] Shai C: yes
[12:13] Vicky M: thanks
[12:13] Shai C: 4856/ 54 also poss
[12:13] Jitender Chhabra: cool vicky…
[12:18] Shai C: signs of change- first move abv vwap at dpoc now
[12:18] Shai C: Bn at IBH/ PDL
[12:20] Shares Trader: whts Vix high
[12:20] Shares Trader: 26.31 nw
[12:21] r m: 26.69
[12:21] Shares Trader: ok thnx RM
[12:29] Shai C: 26.11
[12:29] Shai C: 40 point up down
[12:31] Shai C: 4800 pe started adding up again
[12:31] Shai C: second such move from 4788
[12:32] Shai C: last time it halted here at 4830 and then zooned 50 points more
[12:32] Shai C: *zoomed
[12:33] Shai C: europe's open is a disaster= http://www.forexpros.com/indices/indices-futures
[12:38] Shai C: vwap key again
[12:39] Shai C: first touch from up
[12:39] Shai C: failure send it to day low again
[12:43] Shai C: already a neutral day
[12:44] Shai C: interest is to see if we close neutral centre or extreme
[12:44] Shai C: neutral center will be dpoc / vwap currently 4812-20
[12:46] Shares Trader: neutral extreme may b
[12:47] Pasi C: which side ST
[12:48] Shares Trader: up
[12:48] Shares Trader: 🙂
[12:49] Pasi C: ok
[12:50] j g: BN in nautanki mode
[12:51] Pasi C: nautanki?
[12:51] j g: it has no other option but to tank – lets c how long its nautanki lasts here?
[12:51] Shares Trader: or may b ppl expectign subbu to intrevene
[12:52] Pasi C: subbu will sleep till 60 ST
[12:52] Shai C: from the web- Banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain saw decline of €80.6bn or 3.2% in household+corporate deposits end 2010 to end March 2012
[12:52] Shai C: just what we were discussing yesterday
[12:53] Shai C: but maybe the figures are even higher
[13:06] Pasi C: NF abv IBL,Vwap,DPOC & below pdl
[13:10] Shai C: Bn is the clear driver today
[13:10] Shai C: has been bullish v/s nf
[13:11] Shai C: At mkt lows we like to see Bn taking a lead
[13:12] Shai C: es is recovering- neutral extreme in play at 13.12 pm
[13:21] j g: bn shd tank big time here
[13:22] Shai C: JG pdl and vwap breaks then it's on
[13:23] j g: brek them man – only u can do it
[13:23] Shai C: 🙂
[13:24] Shai C: I'm not the one with the Mauritius connections
[13:24] j g: ok pdl i've done for u now – ur turn
[13:24] Shai C: Kris is a big bull now
[13:24] Shai C: I think Girish psyched him so much that he refuses to see the other way
[13:25] r m: 🙂
[13:25] r m: Girish has totally disappeared from the scene
[13:25] j g: girish himself refuses to either way
[13:25] j g: 🙂
[13:25] j g: se
[13:26] Shai C: time to step back- one abv IB and one in IB, one below PDL and one abv
[13:27] Shai C: JG if the yellow dev value gives way you have IB low and dev value low coming
[13:28] Shai C: also pdl and IBH so lots of new long stops may be there
[13:33] Shai C: USDINR ready for one more swing up
[13:34] Shai C: jg may get his wish now
[13:34] Shai C: BN longs tighten stops
[13:34] j g: any chances of 8800-8300 band getting hit bef. expiry?
[13:35] Shai C: JG with the kind of news flow we are getting, better to take 2 days at a time
[13:35] j g: [13:34] j g: any chances of 8800-8300 band getting hit bef. Friday? 🙂
[13:36] Shai C: No
[13:36] Shai C: 9140- vwap
[13:37] Shai C: 9125
[13:38] Shai C: booked
[13:38] j g: yday around this time mkt started falling from 4940 and did 100
[13:38] Shai C: got 50
[13:38] j g: why booked shai?
[13:39] j g: 9085 is on
[13:39] j g: atleast
[13:39] Shai C: Bn has a buyer below
[13:39] j g: chalo dekhte he
[13:40] j g: 9075 is on – sorry
[13:40] j g: 🙂
[13:41] Shai C: Hmm
[13:41] Shai C: sell came
[13:42] r m: Looks like jg abducted the BN buyer 🙂
[13:42] j g: i converted him into a seller ;
[13:42] r m: hmmm, religious activity 🙂
[13:43] Vicky M: Shai is it a buy again at 4788 ?
[13:44] Shai C: No vicky
[13:44] Vicky M: whats can be the next support now?
[13:44] Shai C: we should test 4760
[13:44] Shai C: USDINR
[13:45] Shai C: [13:33] Shai C: USDINR ready for one more swing up
[13:45] Shai C: JG try the green in USDINR with pink in BN
[13:45] Shai C: almost faill proof
[13:46] j g: ok sir
[13:46] j g: USDINR is having steep green/blue – will run to 60 in no time
[13:46] Shai C: but fall will be swift
[13:46] Shai C: lione nov dec
[13:47] Shai C: Like*
[13:47] Shai C: somehow BN is not breaking down
[13:48] Shai C: USDINR at 2IB
[13:49] Shai C: @Vicky the erason I said No was that currency mkt is not showing life for equity bulls
[13:50] Shai C: see USD/ Euro and INR
[13:50] Vicky M: thanks shai
[13:51] Vicky M: Shai USINR is going beyond vwap band.. a visit to 55.9 should come?
[13:52] Vicky M: plus USDINR is at PR3
[13:53] Shai C: yes may come down a bit but more to do with profit booking than selling
[13:53] Shai C: today no seller in USDINR
[13:53] Shai C: see the pink lines
[13:53] Shai C: every dip is used to buy
[13:55] Vicky M: yes
[13:57] Shai C: 4804 spot if it breaks we get 4760 spot quikly
[13:57] Shai C: 56.20
[14:02] Shai C: Vix at 27
[14:06] Shai C: profile is looking like a bell now
[14:08] Shares Trader: 4818 and 4794 nearly same volm shai ?
[14:08] Pasi C: h0ld bn short shai
[14:09] Pasi C: ?
[14:11] Shai C: Pasi exit
[14:11] Pasi C: ok
[14:11] r m: Looks like jg has bought truckloads after getting frustrated with bears 🙂
[14:11] Shai C: crazy
[14:12] j g: pink pe becho – green pe boughto
[14:12] Shares Trader: nt my day today…longd 4800 CE @ 66..scartchd @ 68 n the moment it gt filled ran to 82 🙁
[14:13] j g: rbi selling dollars – rumour
[14:13] Shai C: has been tough to trade today
[14:13] Shares Trader: RM thoda jaldi spread karna na tha na rumour 🙂
[14:14] Pasi C: it went up after viren tweet ST
[14:14] Shares Trader: wch ws ?
[14:14] Pasi C: Still is a neutral day with BN not staying down below 9080.Onlt 2 things matter now, a close at the center or at the extremes2:00 PM – 23 May 12 · webReplyRetweetFavoriteOptionsTweets: V2OF
[14:14] r m: @ST 🙂
[14:14] Shares Trader: ok thnks
[14:15] Shares Trader: Shai, 4786 gt protectd twice today
[14:15] j g: rumour also says that subbu after his visit to dehradun – decided to sell dollars, his own house, clothes, etc. and settle there ;
[14:15] Shai C: yes ST
[14:15] Pasi C: if it fails at center may be extreme down
[14:15] r m: good for Subbu, he can line the roads with rupee notes, they are in any case cheaper than Bitumen 🙂
[14:16] j g: rm visit asr site – and tell me that guy in one of the pictures – is that subbu? ASR puts him up in differnt avatars daily
[14:19] j g: http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/usdinr-spot-stoploss-56-13-56-25-sell-usd-nse-traders-watch-55-975-level-very-carefully-unexpected-selling-from-rbi-or-xxx-to-start-anymoment/
[14:19] j g: who is this guy in the link?
[14:19] r m: all you want to know about Subbu except his picture 🙂 – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duvvuri_Subbarao
[14:20] r m: 🙂
[14:20] r m: Subbu the Sumo 🙂
[14:21] r m: @jg, so you get your targets from asr, no wonder they are huge 🙂
[14:21] Shares Trader: buy signal in NF
[14:22] j g: extremely wicked sense of humor – everyday subbu is in a diff. avatar there – http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/bank-nifty-last-hope-9153-break-will-create-panic-selling-who-will-save-central-bank-below-71-ivrcl-slide-upto-36-then-rs-25-22/
[14:23] j g: no rm, i read all the blogs but religiously follow shai's MP OFs
[14:23] j g: ASR is – entertainment, entertainment, entertainment
[14:26] j g: check this rm – http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/usd-against-inr-firework-to-continue-dont-fight-with-trend-our-advice-to-rbi-fm/
[14:26] Shai C: what is the NF doing today?
[14:26] j g: shai i said bn needs to give 9075 – so unless it gives me that….:-)
[14:27] Shai C: you got 9072 in the morning?
[14:27] j g: my only worry is subbu's visit to dehradun
[14:28] r m: @Shai, jg wants it ever couple of hours 🙂
[14:28] j g: lol
[14:28] j g: i got 9080 at 1.50 pm
[14:28] j g: aur ek bar
[14:29] j g: shai nf is making higher lows or lower lows?
[14:29] j g: or lower highs?
[14:29] r m: both
[14:30] r m: lower lows and lower highs
[14:30] j g: ok
[14:30] r m: sorry higher lows and lower highs
[14:30] r m: confusing stuff 🙂
[14:30] j g: confooz
[14:32] Shares Trader: lower lows/lower highs
[14:32] Shares Trader: btw wch TF ?
[14:32] r m: lol
[14:32] r m: choose your time frame 🙂
[14:32] Shares Trader: 2 mins its higher lows 😛
[14:32] r m: 5 minutes also higher lows
[14:34] Pasi C: last hour hope no surprises
[14:34] Shares Trader: ys ..nw needs high above4835
[14:34] r m: @Pasi, maybe NF will frighten with a lower low this time 🙂
[14:35] Shares Trader: RM i hv hopes frm volm spikes @ 4786
[14:36] Pasi C: diff to trade
[14:36] r m: Yes ST, normally speaking hopes are right but this USD is a pain 🙂
[14:37] Shares Trader: yeah u r right..again hope subbu manages it today
[14:37] Vicky M: 6 IB trades in todays range
[14:37] j g: but if FII are sellers – how long will subbu defend?
[14:37] r m: today was supposed to be the last day for conversion of 50% position by exporters, maybe they also want to convert at highest value!
[14:38] r m: @jg, FII are not taking the money out so far this year, net FDI + FII is in positive
[14:44] r m: aha, thank you Subbu 🙂
[14:45] Shares Trader: ahha suni meri baat
[14:45] r m: Subbu ko ek chocolate bhejo 🙂
[14:46] Shares Trader: jane do ..sugar problm hoga shayd
[14:46] Shares Trader: 😀
[14:46] j g: chocolate companies ke shares bhejo
[14:46] r m: mandatory for such high positions – sugar problem i mean not chocolate 😀
[14:48] r m: but jg has begun buying more at 56.02 🙁
[14:48] j g: ST u will get it – ….in crude
[14:48] Shares Trader: hehehe
[14:48] j g: it is in free-fall mode from 5500
[14:49] r m: fat profile today
[14:49] Shares Trader: JG i hv no idea abt crude..only heard its super volatile
[14:50] j g: next to silver
[14:51] Shares Trader: Jg nw OFl changed to buy..ab to party change kar lo
[14:52] j g: ST, this mkt goes down and down till expiry
[14:52] j g: so sell on every rise
[14:53] j g: and if that doesnt happen – blame on subbu
[14:53] Shares Trader: 🙂
[14:54] r m: @jg [14:23] j g: no rm, i read all the blogs but religiously follow shai's MP OFs
[14:54] r m: 🙂
[14:54] Shares Trader: thts why i said to chnage him party 😛
[14:54] j g: so i was long from 9090 – booked at that yellow line at 9160 and reverse
[14:54] j g: ab bolo 🙂
[14:55] j g: sell on rise sir sell on rise
[14:55] r m: hamne kya bolna hai sirjee, aap to hamari bolti band kar dete ho na 🙂
[14:55] Jitender Chhabra: 🙂
[14:55] Shares Trader: ok sir ok sir
[14:55] j g: 3-3.10 is a gamble – period
[14:56] j g: or subbu-period
[14:56] r m: Subbu wakes up after 3:30, post lunch sleep is important to avoid stress 🙂
[14:56] j g: lol
[14:57] j g: my tsl at cost 9160 – might just get hit 🙁
[14:58] j g: because i am holding against the of
[14:58] j g: this is called – emotional (read "disastrous") trading
[14:58] j g: i could have booked at 9110
[14:59] r m: a neutral centre close would keep you in profit
[14:59] j g: ok
[15:01] Shai C: prominent POC 4812-20
[15:01] Shai C: good chances of a flat open
[15:01] Shai C: which is a big statement ion these days of extreme volatility in overseas mkts 🙂
[15:02] Vicky M: shai huge OI addition in 4700 PE
[15:02] j g: which means 4700pe buys?
[15:03] Vicky M: no.. i personally feel gap up tomorrow maybe 🙂 but shai is the boss
[15:03] Vicky M: [15:01] Shai C: prominent POC 4812-20[15:01] Shai C: good chances of a flat open[15:01] Shai C: which is a big statement ion these days of extreme volatility in overseas mkts 🙂
[15:03] j g: shai is subbu of stock mkt?
[15:04] r m: don't make Shai angry, he will trigger your BN sl 🙂
[15:04] Shai C: Vicky seems to be half buyers and sellers
[15:04] j g: 🙂
[15:05] j g: i've given up on that trade rm
[15:05] r m: ok
[15:05] j g: sl at cost
[15:05] j g: niot hoping anything
[15:05] Shai C: heading for a neutral center
[15:08] j g: eu in deep red
[15:16] Shai C: dpoc holding movement
[15:20] j g: still some players hoping for a turnaround?
[15:22] r m: nobody wants to sell here
[15:24] Shai C: USDINR should print a sell soon
[15:24] r m: @Shai, is it possible to keep the USDINR pane open till 5 PM?
[15:26] Shai C: yes I 'll transfer it to the MCX tab
[15:26] r m: Thanks
[15:26] Shai C: there's big vol hitting every day near 4.45
[15:27] r m: yes
[15:27] Shai C: JG's gone?
[15:28] j g: no still holding bn short – carry?
[15:28] j g: major gap down
[15:28] Shai C: No man's land for me
[15:28] j g: US will tank tonight
[15:28] j g: rm will buy USDINR at 4.45 – so all in my favor
[15:29] Shai C: us plays one tune between 7-10 and another tune after europe closes
[15:29] r m: 🙂
[15:29] Shai C: closing at vwap
[15:30] Shai C: 4810/ 9134
[15:30] r m: Thanks Shai, bye all, have a great day!
[15:30] Shares Trader: Bye all…
[15:32] Shai C: usdinr in lower pane along with crude and copper
[15:32] r m: thanks
[15:33] Jitender Chhabra: shai..wat level u expect a sell in USDINR
[15:36] Shai **: 56.65 is still a possiblity as it is an HVN
[15:36] Jitender Chhabra: k…tx
[15:36] Shai **: but sell signal is is below dpoc 55.95 today
[15:37] Jitender Chhabra: does currency also adhere to the volume funda or is it more of tech indicators…
[15:38] Shai **: The volumes are good in USDINR comparable to BN
[15:38] Shai **: as long as volumes are good then MP will work
[15:38] Jitender Chhabra: k…tx
What is it about the 4852 level that the market has closed there 3 times in the past five days?
We understand it as the composite HVN and on friday at the close as the market drove up higher, I was adamant that value was not traveling with price and that break above 4852 would not materialize.
These were my words from the weekend post – https://www.vtrender.com/content/profile-check-monday
As can be seen in Fridays' profile the value and the closing are far apart which to me means that the late buyers did not enjoy value or are not of the institutional kind and the event of a move down can be forced to liquidate rather quickly.
Should that not happen we will see a movement of price towards value and a potential meet up of price and value can happen again at the previous high volume node of 4852 marked in the chart above.
Should it continue above immediate target remains 4939.
Here'as the updated chart
Well the market got to 4939 first before 4852 and has nixed the argument just a bit for me here.
Needles to say we are at an important juncture and 4852 and 4939 will be important for our bias.heading into the next few sessions.Surely the seller is back below 4852, but if it stays above then the march to 4939 will have more confident buyers this time around.