Month: June 2012

I didn't get a chance to pen down levels for the USDINR chart, where 56.50 was marked as an important level in the future in my last post here –


Hopefully many of our readers who follow Viren would have gathered the information from this tweet here :


57.45 HVN and 56.45 is LVN + vwap for the rise.56.01 easy tgt below 56.45.


The market did 56.04 as an easy move below 56.45.



OrderFlow was short at 57.19 yesterday.

USDINR updated chart

Here’s a look at a chart posted on Fri 8th June


I’ve highlighted a small area in this chart below, but the original chart can be found here :



And here is the updated chart as of the close of trading on Fri day 28th June.



Now mark these words from the post made on 8th June, a full 14 sessions back.-


The green composite picture on the right is the cumulative volumes in the Nifty as it has traded in the 5600- 4500 zone.


4860 below had the largest volumes and the next big one is at 5205 which should be the next resistance for this move,


I feel that the market can stay in this 200 point band for the rest of the month as it requires trading volumes.


4970 on the lower side and 5212 on the higher side should be the range the market should consolidate in.


There’s no better study which can give you an insight in price behavior than the study of volumes.


Markets do not trend all the time and areas of consolidation in low volume pockets are a traders worst nighmare.Such zones can be easily found out through a study of volumes as a trending move ends in a balancing one and such areas meet the requirement of the SteidlMayer distribution theory as the market tries to move towards efficiency.


The move from 4770 to 5194 represents the first imbalance followed by a balancing act which the market ha been doing over this month.


Using the principles of the SteidlMayer distribution the balance zone roughly between 4990 and 5190 when broken out of will give us another trending move or a period of imbalance as we like to call it.

It’s all about volumes

Here is an updated chart of the Nifty.


My last post on the subject is here-


In that post we had seen the market coming back to the POC at 5117 since it got slammed down by the news from RBI.



The updated chart shows the NF taking the entire week to repair the single prints from Monday immediately after the announcement.


This is a bullish development as it shows that the seller from Monday was neutralized gradually.


Today was an inside day in the NF but a look at the structure of today ( extreme right profile) shows the distribution in the upper half of yesterday's move and in the thin part of the profile.It gain points to a strength building exercise.


The day was a neutral day with a close at the upper end of the range. We always keep an eye out for neutral days especially the ones which are coupled with an inside day built in.


On a week-on-week basis, little was changed.



The purple line running through the centre of the 2 profiles is the POC or point of control. It's been flat for the past 15 days now.


Once again it shows how the option writers have a big hold on the market.. The writers of the 5100 pair have been the biggest winners of this week.

Nifty Profile check

It's June 20th and the market is waiting on news that the FOMC will announce a new QE today.


The last two meets on April 25th and March 13th have been quite affairs, but this one is different as Operation twist is ending later this month and  reference to that needs to be made today.


An extension of the ending operation twist seems to be the most likely outcome. Equity markets could be disappointed as this would not be an outright QE but the USD could still weaken and the markets would still expect new QE in the coming months.


Here's a look at the charts of Gold and silver which should get vertical moves today


Gold Comex :



Silver Comex :



The charts above are one year composites of Gold and Silver in dollar terms and show the Gold future at POC currently and the Silver Future at one year Value low.


Let's look at the gold and Silver charts in rupee terms as they are traded on the MCX.


Gold :



Gold has been on a steady uptrend since the lows in May and the POC line developing up shows the move has been accepted higher and is value.


It's currently trading at it's highest volume print and with an LVN below at 29800 there is adequate support.


Below 29800 we could see slight weakness to maybe 29430. Levels are all August Future.


Silver :



Unlike Gold, Silver has been relatively quieter in the past month and mote consolidating in a range after the sharp sell in early May.


It's best to play Silver on the Revision to the mean concept and any large move today may still bring it back to 54200- 54500 where the market has found fair price.


As in any news announcements, anything can happen a volumes driven by Greed and fear determine price movement.


If you are trading later in the evening, trade cautiously. Vertical moves cannot be ruled out.

Gold/ Silver ahead of FOMC

Here is the updated chart of the Nifty futures.


My last post is here-



The market stalled at the HVN of 5117-20 today preferring to trade on either side of it by about 20 points.


What we got by the close was another Gaussian distribution on low volumes with the bulk of the trading done by the day time frame or locals as we like to call them.


The day was neutral center to be expected on low volumes as there was no energy to pull it out of the Initial balance zone.


From a slightly longer term perspective the market is coiled up and ready to spring.


Today was a day of balance in a bigger balance zone.


We know in profile that the market goes from balance to imbalance and back to balance in all time frames.


We eagerly wait for the break of this balance zone tomorrow.


Exit of value area and range is the trade and the bias,


Nifty profile