Month: April 2013
Here are the weekly profile charts of the Nifty and the BankNifty April futures for your weekend study.
Before I put them, a quick chart of the SPX which hit target 1 of 1538 given on Wednesday.
In doing so the profile was balanced at the close, giving a high probability of an inside day in the US markets today which should suit our open well on Monday.
However a break below 1531 will easily put 1500 cash on the radar (tgt 2) and may follow it to 1483.
Notice the rejections of the high volume prints at 1588 and 1573 as the market tries to auction lower.
Here are the weeklies of the Nifty and BankNifty April futures :
The close of Friday was at the upper end of the weekly range.
Monday's open is critical for this instrument with a close above 5774 promising an expiry around 5910. However there are lots of ifs and buts as also expiry pressures and orderflow will be important to track especially on Monday and Tuesday.
After a big upmove last week, even the BankNifty is critically posed with a further upmove putting 12600 on the radar.
Value areas in the above charts are defined in blue and the POC (point of control ) is purple.
Market Profile states that as along as price remains above the POC and the value high , the buyer will retain control.
Here's a composite structure of the SPX ( cash) in USD.
The selloff from day before met the composite POC at 1552 and closed at the upper value area of the previous balance.
Around 1587 earlier we had also seen huge volumes as long liquidation happened.
This would be the stop for all shorts.
A break of 1552 can set up a meeting at 1500 .
Here are charts which show the institutional change taking place in the Nifty yesterday and the BankNifty in the previous sessions.
The charts show the imbalance starting in the form of the single prints ( excess) from an old balance.
These remain the best examples of visualizing institutional activity as it happens.
We had another neutral day in the markets ( the third this week) and the markets finished just above vwap/ dpoc as both buyers and sellers tried to seize the initiative ahead of the weekly close tomorrow.
There is minor excess at the lows ( yesterday and today) of a responsive nature and huge supply at the highs , some of which was brought into play even today.
We also see a failed auction in bankNifty at the lows.
Here's an update to the charts posted yesterday- https://vtrender.com/content/nifty-profile-charts-0
We had a neutral extreme in the markets yesterday.
In a neutral extreme the value areas are not important as buyers and sellers contended for value but the decision was made in favor of one party at the close.
In the case of yesterday it was the seller who took price lower.
But today's auction is slightly different in the sense that the seller has not pushed price below the neutral extreme low.
So in such cases we watch out for the 1/3rd retracement of the range or the second and third deviations of price from yesterday.
That comes down to 5536 and 11034 in the April futures.
The Buyers have to move price above these points to gain control lost yesterday.