Here is the volume profile of Nifty and BankNifty for the may series .
Value for the series developed between 6150 and 5950 and both would be important on closing basis for the next series.
Highest volumes were traded at 6062, followed by 6007 and 5970 all May F prices.
Vwap for the series is seen at 6040.
We see a trending move out of this value area for the June series which should put us near 6600 or back to 5500 depending on the drive we see from this value area.
The BankNifty has a vwap around 12720 and a dpoc around 12580 for this series.
Currently we are seeing the auction develop the low volume zone between 12720 and 12960 Future.
The repair got done as the market built in a balance and it accepted the lower price move from the day before.
The day high was around the 6038 figure pointed out in the morning post and the same will be used to cover shorts if the market decides to re- probe higher again tomorrow.
Orderflow data from yesterday showed sellers entering around the 6075 May F zone, but today's data shows long interest developing at the 5985/ 5990 May futures level.
Let's see how it pans out tomorrow, but it will be a good trade able setup with risk easy to manage.
On the 2nd of May we did a post on the open drive seen in the Nifty and the long conviction which was then yet to set in with this chart :
The post had projected targets of 6113 May which was hit and a correction immediately set in.
Fast forward to today and we are at similar levels again with the Nifty at a point where it can go down or up.
Let's look at the profile since
The Big trend day of yesterday saw a poor structure at the lows.
A student of profile will look at it and immediately think that it needs a repair. So we should see a move upto 6037 which should be able to strengthen the profile of yesterday.
In many ways 6038 May will be the pivot level for the next swing which can decide the tilt as back to 6100 + or down to 5900.
OrderFlow will be important as the market moves c loser to 6038 later today.
Here are the Nifty weekly profiles.
The blue shaded region is the value area and whilst looking at the weekly bars we need to understand where value has developed in the current week w.r.t the previous week.
Nifty's weekly bar is higher and just above the upper distribution of the DD of the previous week.
The bankNifty weekly profile is inside last week's profile.
A move away from the value area and range is an excellent risk reward opportunity in the banknifty in the coming week with risk being managed near the POC at 12520.
Here's an update to a post we did back in december which shows the bias for a particular day of the week and the net change for that day.
It's just a stat and the idea is to see if there is any advantage in approaching any day of the week with a fixed bias.
The last post on the subject is here : https://www.vtrender.com/content/nifty-daily-stats-3
Here is a continuation of the same with data from the 1st week of december to the close of trading on friday- 3rd May.
Day of week based change :
Ever since this rally began from 5500 levels, we have mostly seen a positive Monday, a flat tuesday, data is absent on wednesdays owing to holidays falling on that day twice, up thursday and a down friday.
This is data only for the rally from 5500 levels .
Even otherwise thursday seems to be holding a bigger positive bias than other days.
It's very unlike an RBI day to form an "inside bar" but we saw it in yesterday's trade in the Nifty, a move which displaced a lot of the single prints seen the day before.
The result was that we saw some long closure in the Nifty and some new short positions in the BankNifty.
The BankNifty also had a spike in the closing hour and spike rules apply at the open on Monday. The rules are mentioned in the glossary section : https://www.vtrender.com/content/spike
The charts above as helpful as they are (and Market profile helps tilt the balance to show us what happens inside the candle) are actually past data. We can derive only reference points from such data.
The actual market is the present and the buying and selling of the present sets up trade opportunities.
A good trader should find a way to mould the past and the present to take a call on the future.That can be only possible when you see the actual buying and selling happening at the known reference points which you may have put in your pre- market studies.
In the trading room, we have a mechanism in place which helps us tie the past to the present and you can actually see for yourself the buying and selling happening and who is in control at what point of time.
The markets of today are much faster than they ever were. Sample this fact- The NF covered 400 points from 5500 to 5900 in 10 sessions whereas the BNF did 1800 points in the same period. That is opportunity to a trader and if you haven't taken advantage or caught on the wrong side then you need to look closely at what you have been doing.
Like I said before, there is more opportunity in the present and a good tool which helps you to take advantage of this present is a need in every traders' arsenal.
In the premium section I always put up the trading room charts which help us to see the buying and the selling live. Here is the bankNifty chart from yesterday which at every point of time would have shown you who is controlling the market.
The auction of today -02/05/13 has characteristic changes and displays long additions in the form of buying tails.
The internals of the market had pointed to long liquidation in the bankNifty on tuesday and shorts built at higher levels in the Nifty on tuesday. All that quickly changes in the open drive we saw in the markets early today.
Have a look :