Here is another chart showing the value area and vwap for the March series. as we head into the close tomorrow
The difference between this chart and ones posted earlier on the blog is that these are from the first trading day of the series which begins always on a Friday.
The charts show the value area as purple lines, the POC in Maroon and the vwap in Orange and the Vwap deviations in yellow.
The pane below this is the effective volume which is computed as the net difference between the volume traded on the buy side and the volume on the sell side.
The effective volume has slipped to it's lowest point today, showing a seller in control all through the month.
Both the charts are also at the second standard deviation which as discussed in the room today gives a low probability for a big down move to happen.
That being said, the expiration day is not about technicals but about an adjustment of inventory on actual time pressure. Weird things are known to happen when such inventory adjustments take place,
The best thing to do would be trade small tomorrow and follow OrderFlow for trades.