Nifty Spot – 15583 [ 15606 / 14416 ]
Monthly Profile (May 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘This balance & the Neutral profile on the higher timeframe inceases the odds of an imbalance and a big move coming in the month of May
Nifty opened the month with a big gap down of 150 points but remained in previous month’s Value and left an initiative buying tail from 14512 to 14416 on the first day of the month making it’s intentions clear as it gave a trending move higher all month as it not surpassed the ATH (All Time High) of 15431 with ease but also closed around the highs of 15606. Needless to say, the auction formed higher Value on the weekly timeframe as it left a string of weekly VPOCs of 14560, 14685 , 15090 & 15210 which would be the important references in case of any dip(s) in the coming months. The Monthly profile is a Trend Up one with overlapping to higher Value at 14990-15094-15176 along with an extension handle at 15330 and it remains to be seen how far this imbalance on the higher time frame plays out in the coming month.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 14945 spot and the POC is at 15094
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 15396 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 14576 spot and the POC is at 14375
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 14925 F.
The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 14816 spot and the POC is at 14737
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 14425 F.
The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 14893 spot and the POC is at 15115
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 15174 F.
The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 14288 spot and the POC is at 14569
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 13809 F.
The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 13528 spot and the POC is at 13528
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 14007 F.
BankNifty Spot – 35525 [ 35584 / 31906 ]
Monthly Profile (May 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘BankNifty closed the month just the way it started which was with a Neutral Extreme profile but this time it was to the downside as it confirmed a daily FA at 33455 which means the PLR is now to the downside with the monthly Value also forming lower at 31410-32490-33750’
BankNifty continued the imbalance of the 30th Apr’s NeuX (Neutral Extreme) close with a gap down open and almost tagged the 2 ATR objective from the daily FA (Failed Auction) of 33455 as it made a low of 31906 but made a dramatic turnaround into the close as it confirmed another NeuX but to the upside and along with it a new daily FA at lows. The auction then formed a big balance over the next 9 sessions before giving a move away from this composite with a Trend Day Up on 17th May which was followed by another mini balance over the next 3 days after which BankNifty gave the second breakout of the month to the upside on 21st May and scaled above previous month’s high as it entered the third round of balance which continued till the end of the month as it formed a ‘p’ shape profile on 31st May closing around the new highs of 35584. The Monthly profile is a Triple Distribution Trend Up one with overlapping to higher Value with coulple of extension handles at 33510 & 34170 with the monthly POC also shifting higher to 34828 which would be the important references in the coming month.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 33568 spot and the POC is at 34828
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 35380 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 32260 spot and the POC is at 32490
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 33765 F.
The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 34618 spot and the POC is at 33870
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 33250 F.
The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 35530 spot and the POC is at 35820
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 36719 F.
The VWAP of the January 2021 series is at 31597 spot and the POC is at 32062
The settlement day (Feb) rollover volume point is at 30445 F.
The VWAP of the December 2020 series is at 30270 spot and the POC is at 30766
The settlement day (Jan) rollover volume point is at 31389 F.
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We’re writing to inform you that on Nov 1, 2019, the list price of the Vtrender Trading Room will increase to INR 14999/- for the Monthly Plan, to INR 39999/- for the quarterly Plan and INR 99999/- for the Annual Plan.
There is a complete overhaul in not just the pricing, but also the structure of the Vtrender Trading Room.
The new packages would be education complete and have enhanced material with lots more educational content on Market Profile and the Order Flow concepts. There would be additional live webinars and concepts discussed online.
We aim to move forward with our mission on working closely with genuine traders interested in pursuing an edge with the Market Profile and the Order Flow.
Why are you increasing prices?
We introduced the original version of the Vtrender Trading Room about 10 years back . Since then we have added lots of enhancements to the charts and introduced newer concepts to the trading community.We are excited about this next phase which would bring a lot more changes and re-define our ability to read these charts better.
Introducing quants and systematic trading systems is just one of the many additions already processed and would fuel the next leg of our growth going onwards.
To keep pace with the value that Vtrender continues to provide, we’re increasing the list prices starting Nov 1, 2019.
What does this mean for me?
If you currently have a Vtrender Live subscription, the change goes into effect on Nov 1, 2019. If you are on the annual plan or quarterly , the new prices will go into effect the first time your plan renews on or after Nov1, 2019.
These changes will not impact your current contract or any renewal event prior to that date.
You can move higher to a longer duration plan at current rates on or before Oct 31st 2019. We can add the new credit to your existing subscription which will be topped up as and when your current plan runs out.
These rates are valid till Oct 31st only .
How can I learn more?
What is this term called Orderflow? and how does knowing it help my trading?
Orderflow simply means reading the demand and supply side of the market.
Because it is read live and based on current actual traded volumes of the market, we have what are called Orderflow charts.
Orderflow replicates the transactions taking at the exchange on your chart and can show you real time the actual demand and supply at the exchange.
A live reading of an Orderflow chart is the best way to understand the market activity or read the “Now” . This has to be contrasted against charting techniques which show what has happened in the past.
The order-flow is the present- the developing present. It is the “now”
The video below should explain more.
After my last post on Market Profile in May, I received a lot of email on the different theories and concepts which all get aggregated in one common term called the “Market Profile”.
Truth be told, there are 3 variations of the Market Profile and at Vtrender we follow all the 3 variations completely and we could be one of the very few markets in the world where all 3 variations work simultaneously as well as asynchronously. I’ll explain…
But first, what are these 3 variations?
Pete Steildlmayer, the founder of Market Profile as a study, has evolved the Market Profile from :
a) The Traditional Market Profile: Which was about 30-minute price and time ranges and the base concept was time x price= value.
b) Steidlmayer Distribution: It consists of the IPM ( Initial Price Move ) which is followed by the start of a Balance followed by short covering or long liquidation Imbalance ( sometimes both in the same bracket) and then another IPM again. We have written extensively on this –
c) SteidlMayer Volume Strips: Instead of using only 30-minute price ranges, Pete recommends using a set profile of 12 of 30 minute time period periods and a range of 9 to 30 minute time period to catch the imbalance moves better.
Why did Pete have to do this?
When Pete started off on Market Profile his basic premise was to search for “value” on a price vertical and time horizontal axis. It made waves because not many people had thought about plotting markets like that. The equation was simple then :
Price x Time = Value.
Let’s understand here that the concept of volume as we see it today, was not prevalent then.
Pete argued that the market was an auction process and under normal circumstances, you would fade movement away from value and under exceptional circumstances, you would buy new highs and sell new lows. The market’s job was to facilitate trade and be efficient and the best expression of that efficiency was the bell curve. Jim Dalton expounded on this in detail in his book “Mind over Markets” which till date remains the best explanation of the traditional market profile concept.
As Markets evolved and more volumes came in and changes started taking place in the timings at the US and European Exchanges, Pete felt that the institutional volumes and the 24-hour electronic markets created a lot more imbalances than earlier seen and the Steidlmayer distribution and the Volume Strips were a response to this. The change to screen-based trading from floor-based information in which locals were more powerful, now gave new powers to the institutions who with their algorithms fundamentally changed the control and hence imbalances became as important a part, as the balance or movement to value.
Next, as exchanges started giving out volume information fully, Value now could be easily seen through the volume traded at that price. Previously time defined price in the past tense but now volume was current information defining price at every step of the way. Time x Price was then Volume and since Volume became so freely available why would anyone use a surrogate for it? Per the Original Market Profile theory, if the function of the market was trade facilitation, then it would seek levels where opportunities for trade would be maximized ( volume POC). This maximization would also be reflected in the volumes and range of the day.
So what does all this mean for us now?
Fortunately, for us, not much has changed. Let’s remember again that Pete did these changes to the market he was trading which moved to a 24-hour environment. This made the concept of value, day types and Initial Balance not as useful to them as they used to be. But as dwelled upon in the last post, the key to understanding everything is context. And because we have a market which opens at 9.15 and closes at 3.30 we get to use all the 3 methods which Pete has handed over to us. We can still use them separately and I make an mention of day type in all my posts made in the evening and also we can view the profile as a composite and see if we are in an IPM or a balance. We use only composite profiles in all our posts.
At Vtrender, we build on what has been passed on to us. The Market Principles remain the same but the application of these principles needs to change over time. It’s about modifying the traditional theory to incorporate new insights and substituting with modern applications some old tools. Volume information has changed everything today and at Vtrender we were quick to see the Opportunity for insightful trading when the OrderFlow information came through. Quite simply OrderFlow meant to us looking inside the candle and see what the market was doing and instead of making educated guesses about lack of demand or no supply or even test of old supply or old demand we could see it live, working right in front of our eyes and the Volume opened the curtains to what the institutions were doing. Yes, we are incorporating the best of OrderFlow practices to see the auction market theory work live right in front of our eyes. So if the principles of Auction Market Theory tell us that xyz point is rejection we look for OrderFlow to confirm that rejection. It’s this marriage of Market Profile and the OrderFlow which is our defining edge in this fast-changing sphere of trading. They can build faster algos and move from cable to laser, but we see them and track them.
Our approach to the market is to build 2 hypothesis every day on the expected behavior of the market. This is what Market Profile tells us about what the market ought to do next ( I say “ought” not “will”) . Next, we interpret using the OrderFlow what the market is doing currently. The gap between the two is our trading opportunity. The closer the gap, the better is the trade.
I’ve often been asked why I pass on trading secrets and trading information to other traders. The truth is that there are no secrets out there. What we speak about in our trading room is common knowledge in every institution which works these markets. It’s a different matter that they don’t know that we know it too and that we see them and track them live and that’s our edge!
Trading is an extremely difficult profession but it’s difficult only for those people who do not understand how the system runs. Most people pay tuition to become a lawyer, doctor, engineer, accountant but ask how many traders read a book on Analyzing Markets or have made an effort to tuition themselves and the answers would tell you why this profession has a high fail rate. There is no literacy here.
I coined the subject of this post – Evolution. Pete Steidlmayer has evolved the Market Profile and adapted it completely to a changed trading environment. I’ve seen sharp traders unable to evolve losing out their edge eventually. Evolution is the only truth for us as traders. A pond refusing to allow fresh water to flow in will attract pests and eventually stink. Winning traders constantly refresh and renew their knowledge and add to their expertise. Trading is a place where there is no place for resting on laurels. Keep evolving.
True Success is a journey, not a destination.
If you want to expand your understanding of the Market Profile then we have a place where we not just look at the various concepts of the Market Profile but also put them to practice in a Live moving market.
Pricing options are at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/
Some more details at – https://vtrender.com/trading-room/
A quick link to join the Vtrender Trading Room is at – https://in.explara.com/e/vtrenderlive-trading-room
In the year 2016, our portfolio graph surged 124% through the year in a period of down, then up and then sideways markets.
In the first 2 months of the year when the markets were mostly down in Jan and Feb our Portfolio returned 23.5 % and 18.5% respectively. In a market which went up in March, we clocked a third straight win of 26.4%. Our best performance came in the Month of June when the market moved a narrow 387 points only ( lowest range of the first 6 months) and we clocked 30.9% in that month. Towards the end of the year especially in Nov, we had a few trades go wrong as the twin effects of a Trump Win and Demonetization, both exogenous events, played out a 500 point up- down range in 3 sessions and we gave back 24% to the market.
But in Summary, the year went well for the team at Vtrender and we are happy with the 124% on our model portfolio of 10,00,000/- we started with on Jan 1 2016. That portfolio is at 22,39,743 /- as the year drew to a close.
Our Belief is in Market Profile. It works in all kinds of Markets whether going up or down and even sideways. We also strongly believe in our risk management setups which allow only 3% risk for every trade and allow Time and the System to do the rest. There are very simple rules to trade the market. First is to define your risk and Vtrender believes in knowing the amount beforehand like 30,000 in our case for our 10 L model and then allowing Time for the market to do the rest. In fact, this is a business where you do not make Time your enemy and Market Profile is well known for documenting the importance of Time, Volume and Price. We have lived and breathed on those principles taught to us and are happy with where we are with it.
The Right setup + Proper Position Sizing + Correct Money Management= Growing Account
January Series :
- Total trades – 16
- Win-loss ratio – 11 W- 5 L
- Total gains in the Month – 2,80,770/-
February Series :
- Total trades – 20
- Win-loss ratio – 13 W- 7 L
- Total gains in the Month – 1,89,625/-
March Series :
- Total trades – 27
- Win-loss ratio – 18 W- 9 L
- Total gains in the Month – 2,64,165/-
April Series :
- Total trades – 17
- Win-loss ratio – 9 W- 8 L
- Total gains in the Month – 91,275 /-
May Series :
- Total trades – 17
- Win-loss ratio – 9 W- 8 L
- Total gains in the Month – 1,29,965 /-
June Series :
- Total trades – 22
- Win-loss ratio – 15 W- 7 L
- Total gains in the Month – 3,09,340 /-
July Series :
- Total trades – 15
- Win-loss ratio – 9 W- 6 L
- Total gains in the Month – 93,525 /-
August Series :
- Total trades – 12
- Win-loss ratio – 9 W- 3 L
- Total gains in the Month – 32,430 /-
Sept Series :
- Total trades – 14
- Win-loss ratio – 11 W- 3 L
- Total gains in the Month – 1,81,325 /-
Oct Series :
Nov Series :
Dec Series :
The performance report is on a 10L model, is only for swing and positional calls and is not- compounded. The effort here is to show how a good trade location marked with a well-researched entry point and a proper exit point along with correct position sizing and trade management are important for the growth of an account.
We do not risk more than 3% in Nifty trades and trade BNF Futures and Options with a 4% risk ( exception made only for BN) . We also do not add back the profit to the capital account for trading and every month we would stay with a 10L model to begin the month irrespective of what happened in the previous month.
The position size depends on the Stop loss we have at the time of trade entry. So for 100 points of risk in the Nifty, we will go with 4 lots and for 200- 230 points of risk in the BankNifty, we maintain 6 lots. If the SL is higher in the setup then we scale down the lot size and if the SL is less the lot size increases. In Nifty options for a risk of 30 points in the setup we would go with 14 lots and in BNF for a risk of 80 points, the lot size is about 16.