Long liquidation set in today at the 8330 POC of 2015 we have been following for trend confirmation/ pullback. But as the index dipped off that pivot point, our charts did not pick up aggressive selling at the lows or near midpoint of the session. On the basis of the profile of the day, we can conclude that the LT Buyer is on hold and the seller not yet active and RB moves around 8300 strike could be the theme for tomorrow and day after.
Nifty Oct F:
Background / Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: We have done a review on weekly charts at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-26-oct-30-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a b shaped long liquidation pattern.
#) vwap of the day was at 8287 with volume of 93 L in a trade which worked an 8339-8257 range of 82 points
#) Day POC was at 8284 levels
#) 8284 POC and 8296 pull back highs are the min levels for the bulls to recapture tom to stage a comeback.
#) Auction came back into the 2-day range of Tuesday/ wed and stopped at the POC of that mini balance at 8260F.
#) OrderFlow shows sellers at the highs but as we dipped lower the selling wasn’t aggressive. However, Nov F shows a lot more sellers active today than buyers.
#) Value areas are at 8296-8284-8262– for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit:http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
#) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players.
Hypothesis :
(based on Oct F)
K.R.A is 8340 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8285 it could move to 8314 and 8349. SL for this view is 8255
Hypo 2) IF NF auctions below 8255 it could move to 8224 and 8190 . Sl for this view is 8296
BankNifty Oct F:
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-26-oct-30-oct15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a classic b shaped profile
#) vwap was at 17860 with volumes of 28.9 L in a trade which worked a 18041-17786 range of 255 points.
#) day POC was at 17820 levels
#) Pull back highs at 17935 in the BNF today and would come into play for rest of expiry week
#) OrderFlow shows sellers at the highs.
#) Value areas are at 17868-17820-17802 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit: http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
( Based on Oct Futures)
K.R.A is 17650 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) IF BNF auctions above 17935 it could move to 17985 and 18040. . Sl for this view is 17855.
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions below 17780 it could move to 17720 and 17645. SL for this view is 17885.
All Hypos to be traded with the mentioned stops and mechanically. If in the trading room, can use the Order Flow to qualify the entry and exit for the hypos.