| Nifty FEB F
|
| Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. There is another failed auction at the lows on 19/01 at 8530 which should form another supporting base for the index
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile consolidated in a narrow range early and broke higher into the close #) vwap of the day was at 8948 #) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan. #) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8733, 8714, 8686 which need repair in the coming sessions #) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8590 on – 19/01 which has not been revisited and hence a support for FEB
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8967 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8967 then it will move to 9015 and above 90155 the move is to 9065/ 9110 . Sl for this view is at 8942 .
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8941 then it will move to 8900 and 8872 Sl for this view will be 8967.
BankNifty FEB F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term-
18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile stayed below VAL for the most part today #) vwap was at 20592 today #) Anomalies in the profile of 27/01 at 20482 need repairs #) Long excess seen at 19700 on 21/01 is support on any pullbacks #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 20670 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 20670 then it can move to 20824 and 20976 again . Sl for this view is at 20591 now
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions below 20524 then it will hit 20368 and 20280 . Sl for this view is 20588 |