| Nifty FEB F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. There is another failed auction at the lows on 19/01 at 8530 which should form another supporting base for the index
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
For the coming week the Nifty should be looking to get supports in the 8701- 8728 spot zone.( day low of 04/02 was 8704) Resistances to the upmove will be at 8883 and then 8930/60. 9018 is the objective if we cross over 8960 this week.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a normal distribution with a prominent POC at 8804 #) vwap of the day was at 8806 with volume of 98 L. #) Auction finished in a spike to 8755 from 8832. Spike rules apply at open #) Profile of 30/01 confirms what we stated based on the 28/01 profile that the up auction is moving into a sideways mode and price adjustments.We looks forward to the anomaly adjustments noted below. #) Scene of the crime is at 8958 which may suggest a move up to 8958 to check for business interests before any significant moves either way. #) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan. #) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8733, 8714, 8686 which need repair in the coming sessions #) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8590 on – 19/01 which has not been revisited and hence a support for FEB
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8815 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8815 then it will move to 8755 again to probe and below 8755 can drop to 8685 quickly . Sl for this view is at 8851 .
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8851 then it will move to 8895 and 8925 Sl for this view will be 8815.
BankNifty FEB F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
BN weakened considerably last week by exhibiting a drop below 20050 levels. We now feel that a test of support is called for in the 19250 to 19500 zone before any more upsides.
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week resistance to any move would be 19980- 20050 levels.( The high of 2/2 is at 19991) Further upsides in the index possible only if 20050 is scaled on closing basis. 19760 was an important level which got hit in friday’s selloff. We believe the structure below 19760 is very poor inviting quick drops to 19416 and 19232 during the week.( we hit 19113 today 04/02)
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a 2 way auction which trended lower , bounced and then again closed at lows #) vwap was at 19387 today with volumes of 35.9 L which was above average #) The much anticipated VPOC visit did not happen today again #) 18860 looks to be the target of the move before Friday if we auction below 19250 tomorrow #) Pull back high of 19710 in the profile of 3/02 is immediate hurdle on any move to the upside #) The profile of 30/01 left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F #) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256. #) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610 #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19320 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 19320 then it can move to 19416 and 19478 . Sl for this view is at 19265 now
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions below 19240 then it will move to 19006 and 18860 . Sl for this view is 19320. |