Nifty JAN F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16). Until the 16th of DEC the largest drop was about 450 points for the entire rally from 5110 levels. The drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points . In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty had run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 to 8626 measured 903 points. The drop from 8626 to the low made on 17/12 of 7961 measures 665 points and violates the 450 points done previously. In such a case the market should drop by an extra 450 points and round off the correction by dropping a total of 900 pints.
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
The move of today broke through the support band of 8320 spot- 8290 sand collapsed to 8111 levels. The imbalance objective of the move was 8122 spot and the Nifty closed around this objective again after putting in a firm bounce from 8065. This region should provide a bounce for the rest of the week and the quality of the bounce may produce the next round of selling. Remember the medium term objective is still at 7723 spot levels for the correction as stated above.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was 2 timeframe today and visible in the first 15 minutes #) Volume was above the weekly average and measured 128 L in Fut #) vwap of the day was at 8147 well below yesterday’s 8238 as the market accepted the lower prices today #) Buying excess seen at 8358 F on 2/01 was replaced by selling excess from 8422 which negated the multi day value created from 29/12. #) Pull back high of the move of 06/01 is at 8257- 8268 and is new resistance for the index. #) Anomalies seen at 8178 was repaired and 8216 remains which the market should try to repair in next few sessions. ( revisit confirmed)
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8170 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8180 then it will move to 8216 and if 8216 is overcome on volumes we can see 8272 . Sl for this view will be 8157
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8123 then it will fall to 8091 and 8062 . Sl for this view is at 8160.
BankNifty JAN F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term-
18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
The BN collapsed below the support band of 18723 – 18610 today and fell to 18388. We have mentioned the importance of 18400 spot for the weekly trend up in BN above. The objective of the imbalance was seen at 18440 and the BN closed around there. The 18200 zone is new support below 18400 spot.. However if 18200 spot gets broken then BN can witness a bigger fall to 17820 region .
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF was a 2 time frame with a close near vwap #) vwap was at 18436 #) excess seen at 18920 on 02/01 was taken out by excess at 19024 on 6/1 #) Pull back high seen at 18817
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18490( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions above 18500 then it can move to 18625 and 18768. Sl for this view is at 18435 now.
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions below 18350 then it will hit 18290 & 18020. Sl for this view is 18450. |
