The Nifty went up 7.5% in March after dropping 5.04 % in Feb
The larger story not reflected in the above percentages was the rise in volatility and the war in Europe sending unease across the trading universe
But despite all that was said and done, it was a 5% correction in Feb which was recovered in March.
as we mentioned early in Jan, the year 2022 would stand out as a consolidation year.
We are just 3 months through however and the remainder of the year needs to follow through on our yearly outlook
but is is shaping up well and if there is a change in view or a big shift in the markets we will review of course
Our story in Feb
Feb was a tough series to trade with heightened volatility and abrupt moves.
We decided to cut the risk per trade in the 4th week of the month and went from 1 % of capital to 0.5% of capital whist being very selective of the trades we took.
There are times in the markets when return of capital becomes more important than the return on capital
we allowed the system to work and the process to tame the volatility.
We managed 6% return on capital during the month.
The month of March
By March we all had gotten used to the volatility of the markets and there were no additional surprises.
The Nifty put in a sharp rally in the second half of the month as baby bears and doomsday pundits were caught out off the majority trade.
We managed 9.4% return on capital during the month despite trading with 0.5% risk per trade for half of the month
The message of the market from Feb and March
By the time the RUS- UKR war became headlines in all media outlets, the markets had dropped substantially and people who had missed the early down were fed “news” by the media and entered bearish positions late in the cycle.
By the end of the month of March, they were wiped clean and taught a lesson to remember
Did the war get over?
Did the news change through March?
Then why did the market dip in Feb on “news” and then rise in March?
The short answer is that the majority trade does not work in the markets.
The early adopters get to keep the profits.
The majority is always wrong
The minority with an edge always win
if you are doing things , which everyone else is also doing, why would the market reward you?
Have an edge
The money is made by traders in the minority who have an edge.