Market Profile Analysis dated 18th Mar

Nifty Mar F:

NF opened with a small gap up and an Open Drive up making it a hat trick to start the week with a drive and it probed above PDH which was also the previous week’s high making new highs of 11550 in the ‘A’ period. NF barely managed to made new highs of 11554 in the ‘B’ period but could not sustain & not only got back below the PBH but even broke VWAP and closed below it & this was a bearish signal as VWAP of a drive if broken can bring the lows of the day & more. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then trended lower in the ‘C’ period as NF made a low of 11466 completing the 1.5 IB range extension and continued to probe lower in the ‘D’ period making a lower low of 11455 which was also the weekly VAH and the auction seemed to be taking support there as it was tagged twice but could not break below. The ‘E’ period then probed higher making a high of 11494 but seemed to be getting supply just below VWAP as it closed at lows post which the ‘F’ period continued the move lower and went on to break the morning lows and tagged the yPOC of 11444 as it made a low of 11436 and in the process completed the 2 IB down. The auction then held on above the yPOC which was a sign that the down move may be stalling and NF then went on to balance for the next 5 periods as it stayed within the range of ‘E’ & ‘F’ meeting resistance at VWAP as it left a pull back high of 11486 in the ‘I’ period and then on the downside made a higher low of 11445 just above the yPOC of 11444 in the ‘K’ period. The ‘L’ period then continued the balance going back to VWAP but for the first time in the day post IB, the auction got above VWAP & this led to a small inventory adjustment as NF made a high of 11507 in the ‘L’ period & followed it up with a higher high of 11510 in the ‘M’ period to give a close above VWAP. The Value for the day was overlapping to higher with the dPOC also forming higher at 11467 which will be the level to hold for the auction to continue higher.

• The NF Open was a Open Drive Up (which failed)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11467 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11483 with volumes of 103.1 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11554-11436 for a range of 118 points
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 11/03 at 11165 & 11170 will now be the immediate support levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 05/03 at 10946 & 10934 will be important levels for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11448-11467-11509

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support in the zone of 11485-472 which if fails to hold the auction can test 11457 & 11439-436
b) NF needs to sustain above 11511 for a probe to 11533 & 11554-562
c) Below 11436, NF gets weak for a move to 11420 & 11399-386
d) Above 11562, the auction can tag higher levels of 11599 & 11615
e) If 11386 is broken and sustained, lower levels of 11364-361 and 11345 could come
f) Acceptance above 11615 can see NF rise to 11628-633 and 11649-655 levels

BankNifty Mar F:

BNF opened with a gap up of 140 points & right in that small selling tail of 29604 to 29658 it left on Friday and gave yet another open drive as it made a high of 29863 in the ‘A’ period giving yet another big range of 270 points in the first 30 mins. However the auction broke below VWAP in the ‘B’ period and even closed below it making an inside bar and the VWAP of a drive breaking means buyers were getting overpowered. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period saw BNF breaking below the lows of ‘B’ & getting back into previous day’s range which triggered a big move to the downside as the auction got into previous day’s Value & went on to tag the yPOC of 29424 in the ‘D’ period as it made a low of 29371 completing the 1.5 range extension lower inspite of the large IB range. Friday’s profile was a ‘p’ shape one & sustaining below the POC of that profile would indicate more weakness but BNF seemed to be taking support at the combo of the yPOC & yVWAP of 29424 & 29430 as it gave a bounce back to IBL in the ‘E’ period but got rejected. The ‘F’ period then probed lower but got stalled just above the yesterday’s VWAP as it made a low of 29433 and leaving a small tail at lows which meant that the downside could be limited & the auction could be making a balance here. BNF continued to balance between this tail at lows & VWAP building volumes at 29520 and even made an attempt to get above IBL & VWAP in the ‘I’ period as it made a high of 29654 but got rejected from the previous day’s high. The next 2 periods ‘J’ & ‘K’ stayed below VWAP & IBL making lower lows and the ‘L’ period started with breaking below them as it made a low of 29463 but the inability to break that morning tail led to a big inventory adjustment in the last 30 minutes as BNF gave a 225+ point bounce as it got above VWAP & made a high of 29740 & closed just above the PDH.

• The BNF Open was a Open Drive Up (which failed)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 29520 F
• Vwap of the session was at 29578 with volumes at 35.3 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 29863-29371 for a range of 492 points
• The Trend Day VWAP of 05/03 of 27380 will be important level for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 29433-29520-29695

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Immediate support is at 29615 below which auction can probe lower to 29564 & 29463-433
b) BNF sustaning above 29740 at open can test higher levels of 29810 & 29864-887
c) Below 29433, lower levels of 29370 and 29318 can be expected
d) Above 29890, BNF can move higher to 30000 and 30101-126
e) If 29318 is broken next important support in BNF is 29280 which if taken out can tag the extension handle of 29135
f) Above 30126, BNF can continue its parabolic run to the upside and could bring 30355

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