Market Profile Analysis dated 27th Feb

Nifty Feb F:

NF opened higher and drove out of Value in the ‘A’ period getting above PDH and tagging the weekly vPOC of 10905 and continued to probe higher in the ‘B’ period as it made a high of 10920 in IB leaving a 50 point tail from 10903 to 10828. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction continued it’s OTF upside in the ‘C’ and ‘D’ periods where it made a high of 10942 but gave the first indication of a reversal as it closed at lows in the ‘D’ period. The ‘E’ period then confirmed the reversal as it not only stopped the OTF upside since open and got back below IBH but NF also went on to break below VWAP and got into the morning singles which started from 10903. When the VWAP of a Drive open fails, it is considered to be a bearish sign where one can expect that the day’s low can be tested again and this is exactly what happened as NF not just tagged the morning lows of 10852 in NF but went on to break below it giving a 100 point range lower in the ‘E’ period and followed it by another 80 points down in the ‘F’ period as NF made a low of 10746 completing the 2 IB range extension downside and also matching the previous day’s range. NF then started to make a balance after the 200 point imbalance as the next 2 periods ‘G’ & ‘H’ made double inside bars after which the ‘I’ period made an attempt to probe lower breaking below ‘H’ but got rejected at 10761 after which it gave a bounce to VWAP making an outside bar. The ‘J’ period continued the probe higher and got above VWAP but was swiftly rejected from just below the IBL as it left a pull back high at 10848. NF then remained in a narrow range for the rest of the day as the range kept contracting building volumes at 10800 level which was also the dPOC for the day as NF closed around it giving a Neutral Centre Profile which is looking like a good set up for the expiry day coming up.

• The NF Open was a Open Drive Up (which failed)
• The day type was a Neutral Centre Day
• Largest volume was traded at 10800 F
• Vwap of the session was at 10829 with volumes of 166.2 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10942-10746 for a range of 196 points
• NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10946 on 12/02 and completed the 2 ATR move down of 10699. This FA has not been tagged and could now act as strong resistance and today’s auction to the upside got stalled just below this.
• NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 06/02 11046 & 11035 was broken on 08/02 and the closed below them so now they are no longer support levels
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 31/01 is at 10793 & 10775
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 10480 & 10580 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10760-10800-10860

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 10784-782 below which it can move lower to 10760 & 10743
b) If NF gets accepted above 10821-833, it can probe higher to 10849 & 10866
c) Below 10743, NF can test levels of 10725 and 10701-690
d) Above 10866, the auction can tag levels of 10893 and 10908
e) Break of 10690 can bring 10663 and 10641 in NF on the downside

BankNifty Feb F:

BNF gave a gap up of almost 100 points & gave a drive at open as it moved out of yVAH and got above PDH to make a high of 27188 in the ‘A’ period. The ‘B’ & ‘C’ period then made narrow range inside bars confirming singles from 27130 to 26956. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘D’ period saw BNF attempt a probe above IBH as it made a new high at 27195 but the auction could not sustain above previous week’s high of 27170 and got back into IB but stayed above PDH. The ‘E’ period completely changed the auction as BNF not only probed into the morning singles of 27130 but went on to break the IBL of 27020 confirming a FA at top with a 1 ATR move down coming to 26940 which it almost tagged in the ‘E’ period itself as BNF made a low of 26955. The auction continued to trend lower in the next period also as BNF tagged the yVAL of 26744 completing the 80% Rule and looked set to tag the 2 ATR move down of 26685. However, BNF seemed to have got support at PDL of 26740 as post the ‘F’ period, it started to make a balance in the lower part of the day’s profile making a nice distribution below the day’s VWAP & PDL. BNF left a pull back low at 26740 in the ‘I’ period and a pull back high at 26917 in the ‘J’ period which will be the immediate levels to watch at open in the next session. BNF was an Outside Day and gave a Neutral Centre profile as it closed just above the dPOC of 26800.

• The BNF Open was a big gap down plus a Open Drive Up (which failed)
• The day type was a Neutral Centre Day
• Largest volume was traded at 26800 F
• Vwap of the session was at 26915 with volumes at 31 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27195-26723 for a range of 472 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27195 today and tagged the 1 ATR move down at 26940. The 2 ATR move down comes to 26885.
• BNF confirmed a multi-day FA at 26700 on 20/02 and tagged the 1 ATR move up at 26994. The 2 ATR move up comes to 27288. This FA is now at ‘T+7’ Days
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27384 on 12/02 and tagged the 2 ATR move down at 26736 on 15/02. This FA is now strong resistance.
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27716 on 23/1 and completed the 2 ATR move down hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 26725-26800-27034

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 26800 below which it can fall to 26740 & 26700-685
b) BNF needs to sustain above 26885 for a probe higher to 26918-950 and 27020-32
c) Below 26670, BNF gets weak for a move down to 26610-600 and vPOC of 26530
d) Above 27035, the auction can probe higher to 27071-93 & 27160
e) BNF has important zone at 26460-440 which if broken can bring 26297-26235

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