Market Profile Analysis dated 27th Mar

Nifty Mar F:

NF opened at the top end of the Neutral Extreme reference taking support at 11516 at open indicating that the PLR is still to the upside as it probed higher to tag 11548 in the ‘A’ period. The ‘B’ period then made an inside bar leaving a very narrow IB (Initial Balance) of just 31 points which gave a possibility of getting a multiple IB day. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then made a range extension to the upside in that dreaded ‘C’ period but as we had a narrow IB, there were good chances that this RE could hold and this got confirmed once ‘C’ closed above IBH after which NF made a higher high in the ‘D’ period as it made a high of 11567 completing the 1.5 IB range extension and also the 2 ATR move from yesterday’s FA of 11363. This meeting of dual objective meant NF could give a retracement but what followed was a big move down as the auction broke below VWAP in the ‘E’ period and almost tagged the morning lows. The ‘F’ period went on to probe below the IBL making a new low at 11511 confirming a Neutral Day set up but was rejected back as it closed around VWAP. The ‘G’ period then probed higher to get above VWAP & went on to probe above IBH also confirming a new FA at 11511 as it made a new day high of 11574 which was also the weekly VAH. NF then consolidated in the next period ‘H’ making an inside bar staying above VWAP and looked like the supply was getting absorbed but it became evident that the sellers were much stronger as they chose the same ‘I’ period to strike back which the buyers had used to break out yesterday to not just break VWAP but went on to make the biggest range of the day as NF made new lows for the day negating that FA of 11511 to make a low of 11481 and in the process completing the 80% Rule on the weekly Value. This inventory adjustment continued in the ‘J’ period also as the auction continued the probe lower to make a low of 11421 completing the 4 IB move lower from where it was swiftly rejected which probably marked the end of the down move as NF then stayed above the Neutral Extreme low of 11441 as it gave a pull back high at 11504 in the ‘K’ period but was not able to get back above the day’s extension handle of 11511. The last 2 periods saw NF balancing within the Neutral Extreme zone confirming a small tail at lows from 11442 to 11421 which will be the immediate support to hold for the expiry day.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range (OAOR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day – Down (also a Double Distribution – Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11528 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11508 with volumes of 125.1 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11574-11421 for a range of 153 points
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11511 today which was negated and the 1 ATR move down comes to 11413.
• NF had confirmed a FA at 11363 on 26/03 and tagged the 2 ATR move of 11563 today.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 22/03 at 11532 & 11521 will now be the immediate resistance levels for the series. NF got above both these levels today but was not able to close above them.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 11/03 at 11165 & 11170 is important support levels for the series.
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 05/03 at 10946 & 10934 will be important levels for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series is 10830 & 10856 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 11484-11526-11568

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Staying above 11445 at open, NF can probe higher to 11469 and 11487
b) NF has immediate support at 11441 which if broken can bring lower levels of 11420-413 and 11398-385
c) Above 11487, NF can tag upside of 11504-511 and 11526-530
d) Below 11385, the auction gets weak for a move to 11363 and 11337-330
e) If 11530 is crossed & sustained, NF can rise to 11556 and 11574-585

BankNifty Mar F:

BNF opened with a gap up of 140 points to make new all time highs and took support at the spike high as it made a low of 30011 confirming the view that the auction to the upside it still not completed as it probed higher to make a high of 30184 in the ‘A’ period. The ‘B’ period then made an inside bar but stayed above PDH which meant the PLR was still up. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) BNF then probed higher in the ‘C’ period making an identical high of 30184 after which it made an range extension to the upside in the ‘D’ period as the auction made new highs of 30250. The ‘E’ period however could not sustain above IBH & probed lower and went on to break below VWAP as it made a low of 30062 but could not get into the morning singles of 30055 to 29970. The ‘F’ period then made an inside bar but closed above VWAP and the ‘G’ period saw BNF scaling above IBH again and went on to make new highs at 30275 tagging the 1.5 IB range extension. The auction then consolidated in the ‘H’ period staying above IBH making an identical high to leave poor highs at the top. The ‘I’ period again tagged 30275 at the start but could not get above it which confirmed exhaustion and hinted that the inventory had gone too long and this led to a big inventory adjustment move as BNF moved lower to get back into IB & broke VWAP to fall more than 200 points from the highs and this move continued in the ‘J’ period as the auction broke below IBL and spiked lower as it not only closed the gap but also went on to break the spike low of 29840 to make a low of 29780 but was very swiftly rejected from there as it closed above IBL. The ‘K’ period then tried to break IBL couple of times but was rejected as it made a low of 29982 and went on to get above VWAP making a high of 30164 and confirmed a tail at lows from 29982 to 29780. The last 2 periods remained in the range of ‘K’ as BNF made a nice balanced profile as it closed as a Neutral Day.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction Out of Range(OAOR)
• The day type was a Neutral Day 
• Largest volume was traded at 30123 F
• Vwap of the session was at 30111 with the highest volumes for the series at 42.7 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 30275-29780 for a range of 494 points
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 22/03 at 29810 & 29825 has been taken out and could now act as support
• The Trend Day VWAP of 05/03 of 27380 will be important level for the series.
• The VWAP & POC of Feb Series 27042 & 26978 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 30015-30124-30204

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) Staying above 30015 at open, BNF can probe higher to 30060 and 30125
b) BNF has immediate support at 29980 below which it could test levels of 29890-868 and 29780
c) Above 30125, BNF can move higher to 30165-205 zone and above it 30245
d) Below 29780, BNF can fall lower to tag 29730 & 29680
e) If 30245 is crossed & sustained, the auction can tag 30285 and 30355

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