Market Profile Analysis dated 28th Jan

Nifty Jan F:

NF began the day as an OAIR after opening around Friday’s close and inside Friday’s spike and moved higher to tag the spike high of 10820 but got rejected from there giving first signs that the imbalance to the downside could continue. This got confirmed when NF broke VWAP & went on to probe below the spike lows of 10761 with the A period closing at lows. The auction then trended lower in spite of leaving a big IB of 102 points till the E period making a low of 10680 after which it made a small balance for the next 3 periods when ‘H’ left a pull back high of 10715. The ‘I’ period resumed the down move breaking the lows of ‘H’ and went on to make new lows for the day as ‘J’ followed it making a low of 10642. The ‘K’ period stalled the move down holding above day lows and probed higher to tag VWAP but could not get above it leaving a pull back high at 10705. The auction then balanced inside the K period until close leaving a ‘b’ profile for the day. NF has a selling tail from 10747 to 10822 with pull back highs at 10715 & 10705 and a wide POC at 10695 which will be the levels on the upside to watch. Break below today’s low would mean the imbalance will continue to the downside.

• • The NF Open was a Open Auction In Range
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ Profile)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10695 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10708 with volumes of 113.5 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10822-10642 for a range of 179 points 
  • NF completed the 1 ATR move down of 10710 from the negated FA of 10811 and closed below it. The 2 ATR move down comes to 10611
  • NF had left a FA at 10678 on 04/01 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 10803 & closed above it. The 2 ATR target of 10928 was tagged on 15/01. The auction broke below this FA today but the close was around it
  • NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 10796 & 10741 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 10480 & 10580 respectively.
  • The VWAP & POC of 31/10 10250 & 10248 will be important levels going forward

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10650-10695-10727

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has immediate support at 10650 and sustaining below it can probe lower to 10633 & vPOC of 10608.
b) Sustaining above 10690, the auction can probe higher to tag 10715-720 and 10745
c) Below 10608, NF can test the extension handle of 26/12 at 10590 and the vPOC of 10566
d) Above 10750-760, NF can move higher to 10790 & 10820

BankNifty Jan F:

BNF opened with a gap down but stayed inside the spike after which it probed higher to almost tag the spike high of 27185 but reversed from 27177 which meant that the auction has not yet completed it’s downside probe which began on Friday. BNF then trended lower breaking below previous week’s low in the A period itself followed by another big move lower in the B period making a low of 26885 leaving a huge IB of 292 points. A big IB generally leads to some balance and the next 2 periods saw BNF balance in a narrow range below VWAP after which BNF resumed the trend down in the ‘E’ period leaving an extension handle at 26868 to make lows of 26720 in the ‘F’ period after which it again made a balance in the next 2 periods before giving another similar break lower in the ‘I’ period making a low of 26680. The ‘J’ period saw lower highs & lower lows but was a very small range bar which indicated that the move down could be a bit too stretched. The ‘K’ period made similar lows but did not go below ‘J’ which gave the possibility of a move to VWAP and BNF gave a good bounce of 165 points but got stalled just below VWAP & the morning extension handle of 26868 leaving a pull back high at 26827. This rejection led to a sharp move down as the auction went on to make fresh lows of the day at 26647 but bounced back to the wide dPOC of 26780 at close giving a ‘b’ shaped profile which has a selling tail from 26995 to 27177.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day – Down (‘b’ Profile)
• Largest volume was traded at 26780 F
• Vwap of the session was at 26835 with volumes of 31.4 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27177-26647 for a range of 530 points which was the largest range since a month
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27611 on 23/1 and closed below the 2 ATR level of 27153 hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively, today’s close has been around the Dec VWAP
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively
• 31st October’s VWAP of 24895 & POC of 24900 will be important levels going forward

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 26655-26780-26925

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has resistance at 26780 above which it can probe higher to 26825 and 26870
b) BNF has immediate support at 26685 below which it can fall to 26636-610 & 26536
c) Above 26870, the auction can test higher levels of 26930 & 26995
d) Below 26510, BNF can fall to 26440 and 26350

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