Market Profile Analysis dated 8th Feb

Nifty Feb F:

NF gave a gap down open below previous day’s low of 11060 negating yesterday’s buying tail and the FA turning the PLR down. The attempt to probe higher after open was met with rejection at 11065 after which it stayed below yesterday’s range confirming a Open Rejection Reverse open. The auction then went on to test the trend day VWAP of 11046 in the ‘A’ period but managed to close above it but the ‘B’ period probed lower breaking it again and tagging the VPOC of 11035 while making a low of 11028 leaving a very narrow IB range of just 37 points confirming another selling tail from 11052-11094 confirming initiative action. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The ‘C’ period went on to break the IBL completing the 1 ATR move down of 11023 from the FA of 11143 and got back into previous week’s range making a low of 11010 which was the 1.5 IB extension downside. The auction then made a narrow balance in the next 3 periods and the attempt to probe higher in the ‘E’ period was met with rejection at VWAP as NF left a pull back high at 11037 which indicated that the downside probe is not yet over. NF then trended lower in the ‘G’ & ‘H’ periods making a low of 10963 almost tagging the 3 IB range extension to the downside and this fast move called for a retracement as price had moved too far away from developing Value. The ‘I’ period began the pull back getting above VWAP and closed at highs and the ‘J’ period continued the move up but the range contracted and the auction got stalled at 11045 which was an important signal. The ‘K’ period got defended at VWAP but made a lower high confirming the new pull back high of 11045 and once the VWAP was broken in the ‘L’ period, NF made a fall of 90 points in the last 30 minutes to make lows of 10935 and completed the 1 ATR move down from the negated FA of 11060. The closing at lows meant that the imbalance could continue in the next session and the spike close of 10935-10963 will be the first reference to watch on Monday.

• The NF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse (Down)
• The day type was a Normal Variation Day – 3 IB (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 11030 F
• Vwap of the session was at 11015 with volumes of 112.9 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 11065-10935 for a range of 130 points 
• NF had left a FA at 10830 on 04/02 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11073. This FA is currently on ‘T+5’ days.
• NF had left a FA at 10710 on 04/01 and completed the 2 ATR move up on 15/01 and was strong support. The auction broke below this FA twice last week but has got back above it.
• NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 06/02 11046 & 11035 was broken today and the close was below this so now they are no longer support levels
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 31/01 10793 & 10775 will be important levels going forward
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 10480 & 10580 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10985-11030-11063

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF closed in a spike of 10963-10935 so spike rules will come into play at open
b) Above 10963, NF can tag 10985 & 11001
c) Below 10935-930, the auction can probe lower to 10901-10896 and the vPOC of 10870
d) On the upside, if NF manages to sustain above 11005, it can test 11025-30 and 11045
e) For the downside, any probe below 10870 in NF can take it lower to 10851 and the FA & swing low of 10830

BankNifty Feb F:

BNF opened with a gap down of 75 points which was also a OH (Open=High) start and probed lower in the first hour tagging that freak low of 27300 it made yesterday at open leaving a very narrow IB range of just 77 points. The ‘C’ period made that dreadful extension lower which is always suspect as BNF made a new low of 27285 which got rejected back into the IB. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) BNF then got stuck in a narrow range as it remained inside the ‘B’ period range for the next 3 periods ‘D’, ‘E’ & ‘F’ after which the auction probed higher in the ‘G’ period to get into the morning selling tail of 27349-27449 (including the gap singles) and probed above IBH making a new high at 27383 confirming a FA at lows but this probe outside IB was also swiftly rejected and the ‘H’ period traversed back through the narrow IB to make a low of 27294 but could not break the morning lows to close around VWAP. This rejection below IBL for the second time in the day triggered a big move to the upside in the ‘I’ period as BNF left an extension handle at 27383 to make new highs and negated the morning tail to make a high of 27495. The ‘J’ period continued this imbalance and made a new high at 27535 but could not sustain above yPOC of 27508 and a pull back high got confirmed when ‘K’ made a lower high indicating that this up move was more of an inventory adjustment. This got confirmed in the next period ‘L’ as BNF broke VWAP & got back below that extension handle to get back into the IB and went on to make new lows for the day in the last 15 minutes to give a Neutral Extreme profile. The BNF today built volumes at the weekly HVN of 27325 and could give a good move away from here in the next week.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction In Range
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 27325 F
• Vwap of the session was at 27382 with volumes of 25.8 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27535-27267 for a range of 268 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27353 on 06/02 and the 1 ATR move up comes to 27675. BNF closed below this FA today so could do the 1 ATR move down of 26965
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27716 on 23/1 and completed the 2 ATR move down hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 27278-27325-27407

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has immediate support at 27280 below which it can test 27230 & 27180-160
b) Staying above 27330, BNF can probe higher to 27380 & the scene of crime at 27430
c) Below 27160, the auction can fall to 27090 and 27030-20
d) Sustaning above 27430, BNF can move higher to 27488 & 27535
e) BNF gets weak below 27020 for a move to that vPOC of 26960 and 26900-885

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