Market Profile Analysis dated 9th Jan

Nifty Jan F:

NF opened with a gap of almost 50 points making a high of 10904 in the opening minute and could not move higher as there was no new demand and as the auction had opened away from the balance and did not get any follow through to the upside, there was good chance of NF getting back into the 2-day balance. This got confirmed when the auction could not sustain above this week’s earlier highs of 10895 and went on to break VWAP though in a very narrow IB of just 26 points. NF however kept probing lower breaking IBL & making a 2 IB range extension to the downside as it made a low of 10845 which was also the yPOC. NF then gave a bounce to get above VWAP & seemed to be going for the IBH probe but once again got resisted at 10895 levels and this failed breakout attempt in the ‘I’ period led to a big Inventory Adjustment Break as NF broke below VWAP and the earlier lows of the day and completed the 80% Rule to tag the VAL making a low of 10765 which meant that once again the auction had moved too far away from the balance but this time it was on the lower side. NF then got back into the Value Area & completed a reverse 80% as the auction for back above VWAP & then the IBL to close at the dPOC & HVN of 10878. NF has a tail at lows from 10791-10765 and is forming a nice bell profile on a 3 day composite so could either fill in this profile making it smoother or give a move away from this balance.

• • The NF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse
  • The day type was a Normal Variation Day (Down)
  • Largest volume was traded at 10878 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 10858 with volumes of 122.3 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10904-10765 for a range of 139 points 
  • NF had left a FA at 10678 on 04/01 and tagged the 1 ATR move of 10803 & closed above it. The 2 ATR target comes to 10928
  • NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged since the & is now strong support
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 10796 & 10741 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 10480 & 10580 respectively. It tagged the VWAP on 11/12 but closed above it
  • The VWAP & POC of 31/10 10250 & 10248 will be important levels going forward

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10850-10878-10900

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) A opening move away from POC of 10866 can bring 10895
b) NF has resistance at 10895 above which the auction can probe higher to 10930 & 10968
c) Sustaining below 10880-870, NF can tag 10845-835
d) NF has support lower at 10815 below which it can tag 10790

BankNifty Jan F:

BNF opened with a big gap up of 150 points making a high of 27762 but rejected the opening highs to move lower below VWAP & went on to close the gap to test the previous day’s spike high of 27632 making a low of 27624 but did not sustain below IBL inspite of the small range of 119 points. BNF then probed higher getting above VWAP building volumes at 27680 & went on to tag the IBH making a new high of 27769 but was immediately rejected leaving a probable FA at top. This breakout failure led to a big move lower in BNF & once it got below the HVN of 27680 the speed & range of the down move increased with BNF leaving an extension handle at 27624 breaking below the spike lows of 27589 & tagging yesterday’s extension handle of 27504. BNF went on to make a low of 27451 which was exactly the 1 ATR move down from the FA of 27769 and was also the yVWAP where it found support. The auction then reversed from here to first get back above the yVAH leaving a buying tail from 27535-27451 and then got back above that extension handle of 27624 & the HVN of 27680 to go on & make new high for the day at 27784 before closing around the dPOC of 27750 giving a Neutral Day.

• • The BNF Open was a Open Rejection Reverse
  • The day type was a Neutral Day 
  • Largest volume was traded at 27752 F
  • Vwap of the session was at 27651 with volumes of 36.5 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27784-27451 for a range of 333 points
  • The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively
  • The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively
  • 31st October’s VWAP of 24895 & POC of 24900 will be important levels going forward

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 27638-27752-27760

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF has made higher Value so PLR is up if stays above 27788 to tag 27844-850
b) Sustaining below 27750, BNF can probe lower to tag 27680 & 27615
c) Above 27850, BNF can probe higher to tag 27930 & 27975
d) Below 27615, BNF gets weak for a probe lower to 27535 & 27425

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