Nifty Spot – 18105 [ 18887 / 17774 ] ]
Monthly Profile (December 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is once again a Trend Up one which started off a narrow 220 points range IB between 18178 to 17959 but went on to complete the 3 IB objective of 18618 after leaving an extension handle at 18534 forming completely higher Value at 18039-18335-18417 with the spike zone of 18678 to 18816 being on watch as the last month of 2022 sets in
- Nifty opened the month with a gap up of 123 points recording new ATH of 18887 but failed to get fresh demand as it left a small A period selling tail & formed a narrow 109 point range 3-1-3 profile with a prominent POC at 18843 indicating poor trade facilitation though it managed to form Value above Nov’s spike high of 18816.
- The auction then made an Open Test Drive Down on 02nd Dec leaving an A period selling tail from 18721 to 18781 thus negating the spike and confirming that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had reversed to the downside as it formed lower lows all of second week between 05th to 09th Dec and even confirmed a daily FA at 18668 on the 07th closing the week with a Trend Day Down of 255 points while making a low of 18410.
- The third week began with new lows of 18345 at open on the 12th but saw the first meaningful A period buying tail signalling leading to a short covering ‘p’ shape profile as the bounce continued for the next 2 days but the formation of an ultra narrow 63 point range on 14th Dec meant that the upside was getting limited and more confirmation of a fresh imbalance starting came with an Open Test Drive start on the 15th resulting in the second Trend Day Down of the month, this time making a higher range of 265 points from 18652 to 18387 and continued this imbalance to close the week with new lows for Dec at 18255.
- Nifty then formed an Neutral Extreme down week in the fourth one after the buyers tried to come back on the first 2 days inspite of making lower lows first with another A period buying tail and then with a FA at 18202 on 20th but fell just short of the 2 ATR objective of 18503 as the gap up it opened to the next day stalled at 18473 getting sold into big time as it left an A period selling tail till 18415 which was also previous month’s VAH & then left an extension handle at 18339 which was just around November’s POC paving the way for the third Trend Day Down of the month and this time it was of 311 points. The imbalance continued for the rest of the week as the auction formed another 2 big down days hitting new lows of 18068 & 17779 closing the week with a huge 652 point range.
- The last week began with new lows of 17774 but confirmed an Open Rejection Reverse to the upside leaving a long A period buying tail till 17907 marking the end of the downside and giving a bounce back first to 18173 on the 28th after which it opened lower the next day but confirmed a daily FA at 17992 handing back the advantage to the buyers who then took it back to 18210 into the close forming a NeuX profile and giving a rare follow up by opening higher at 18259 on the last day but got rejected right at the A period selling tail from 22nd Dec resulting in a drop back to 18080 into the close with a spike.
The Monthly profile has formed an Outside Bar in terms of range with an initiative selling tail from 18782 to 18887 along with an extension handle at 18767 which are now important positional references for 2023 as the year 2022 has closed with a Trend Down Monthly profile with overlapping to higher Value at 18095-18584-18669 and has the daily VPOC of 18020 & FA of 17992 along with 17907 as important references on the downside as we step into a new year whereas on the upside, the extension handle of 18161 along with dPOC of 18227 from 30th would be the immediate levels to watch above which would be the selling extension handle of 18339 & the weekly VPOC of 18492 apart from this month’s POC of 18584.
The VWAP of the Decmber 2022 series is at 18337 and the POC is at 18584
The settlement day (January 2023) rollover volume point is at 18299 F.
The VWAP of the November 2022 series is at 18295 and the POC is at 18335
The settlement day (Dec 2022) rollover volume point is at 18650 F.
The VWAP of the October 2022 series is at 17350 and the POC is at 17260
The settlement day (Nov 2022) rollover volume point is at 17800 F.
The VWAP of the September 2022 series is at 17500 and the POC is at 17643
The settlement day (Oct 2022) rollover volume point is at 16837 F.
The VWAP of the August 2022 series is at 17530 and the POC is at 17530
The settlement day (Sep 2022) rollover volume point is at 17580 F.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 16556 and the POC is at 15976
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 16963 F.
BankNifty Spot – 42986 [ 44151 / 41569 ]
Monthly Profile December 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘BankNifty formed a Triple Distribution Trend Up profile for the month as it recorded new ATH of 43339 on 25th Nov and almost matched it on 30th with a high of 43332 before settling down at 43231. Value for the month was completely higher at 41070-42959-42630 with the 2 extension handles at 41948 & 42622 seperating this month’s lower distributions and would be the important positional references going forward as the auction looks to continue this imbalance to the upside‘
- BankNifty began the month on a subdued note forming a balance over the first 5 days taking support around the November POC of 42959 after which it confirmed a weekly FA at 42948 starting a fresh imbalance to the upside with a Trend Day Up on 08th Dec where it hit new ATH of 43640 and followed it up a move to 44151 on the 14th where it formed the narrowest daily range for the month of just 164 points indicating poor trade facilitation and exhaustion creeping in just below the 1 ATR objective of 44291 from 42948
- The sellers took advantage of this situation on 15th Dec giving 2 extension handles at 43927 & 43804 forming a Trend Day down and giving a range expansion of 742 points signalling the change of trend to the downside and went on to negate the weekly FA of 42948 with the help of another humoungous Trend Day Down of 1251 points on 21st Dec and went on to tag the 1 ATR target of 41606 while making a low of 41597 on 23rd.
- The auction started the last week with new lows of 41569 but left a long A period buying tail till 42060 not only marking the end of the downside for the month but triggered a big move of 1929 points to the upside for the week as it made a freak tick of 43498 on 29th before closing the month at 42986.
BankNifty has formed a Neutral Centre Monthly profile resembling a nice balance with overlapping to higher Value at 42510-43128-43590 closing right in the middle so will need a fresh move away from here with the immediate upside level being the PBH of 43203 along with the daily VPOC of 43310 and the main positional references at 43810, 43927 & the 15th Dec VPOC of 44043 whereas on the downside, 42927 along with 42827 would be the most recent supports apart from the daily VPOCs of 42553 & 42125 as we step enter the year 2023.
The VWAP of the Decmber 2022 series is at 43030 and the POC is at 43128
The settlement day (January 2023) rollover volume point is at 43420 F.
The VWAP of the November 2022 series is at 42150 and the POC is at 42959
The settlement day (Dec 2022) rollover volume point is at 43331 F.
The VWAP of the October 2022 series is at 39750 and the POC is at 38950
The settlement day (Nov 2022) rollover volume point is at 415100 F.
The VWAP of the September 2022 series is at 39910 and the POC is at 40790
The settlement day (Oct 2022) rollover volume point is at 37890 F.
The VWAP of the August 2022 series is at 38530 and the POC is at 38320
The settlement day (Sep 2022) rollover volume point is at 39035 F.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 35427 and the POC is at 35099
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 37434 F.