Nifty Spot – 17354 [ 17639 / 16410 ]
Monthly Profile (December 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The Monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down one with overlapping to lower Value at 17437-17961-18207 and has left an extension handle at 17688 which will be an important longer term reference and also has a small tail at lows from 16931 to 16782 which will be the immediate support zone to watch below which the other 2 extension handles of 16722 & 16375 from August could come into play along with the monthly VPOC of 16255 and buying tail from 16162 to 15834
Neutral Extreme profile did not give a follow through even on the monthly timeframe as Nifty not only opened with a gap up at 17104 on 1st Dec but continued to probe higher with an Open Test Drive on 2nd Dec where it entered previous month’s Value with a spike into the close to tag 17420 and continued this imbalance with another Drive open on 03rd where it formed higher high of 17489 but the failure of this Drive triggered an OTF (One Time Frame) probe to the downside as the auction formed a Double Distribution Trend Day Down and followed it up with another Trend Down profile on 06th Dec where it made new lows for the month at 16892 extending the fall to almost 600 points closing in previous month’s buying tail. The Trend Day of 6th Dec got negated the very next day as Nifty opened higher & left an initiative buying tail as it started a fresh probe to the upside which got more confirmation with another A period singles on 8th Dec where it got back into the monthly Value and formed the first 3-day balance of the month with Value at 17411-17459-17489 hitting new monthly highs of 17543 and followed it up with a gap up open on 13th Dec where it tagged the Neutral Extreme monthly VWAP of 17635 but could only form similar higher of 17639 in the IB (Initial Balance) which indicated exhaustion and sellers used this opportunity to strike back with full force as they made multiple REs (Range Extension) lower along with an extension handle at 17533 and swiped through the 3-day composite Value to form a Double Distribution Trend Day Down. The next 3 days from 14th to 16th Dec saw the auction making an attempt to get back into the monthly Value but was rejected as it formed the second 3-day composite of the month with Value at 17221-17260-17305 and gave an initiative move away from this balance on 17th Dec where it left a selling tail from 17153 to 17298 and made a low of 16966 and followed it up with a big gap down along with a Drive at the start of the next week on 20th Dec as it fell by a further 430 points breaking below previous month’s low and negating the first of the extension handles of 16722 and almost tagging the next one at 16375 while making a low of 16410 but left an important responsive buying tail forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day indicating that it was more of long liquidation rather than initiative supply causing the fall. The lack of supply got confirmed as Nifty opened with a gap up of 150+ points on 21st Dec and confirmed a multi-day FA (Failed Auction) at 16688 and resumed the upmove on Wednesday with another higher open and a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) profile where it confirmed another daily FA at 16819 along with an extension handle at 16920 and gave a rare follow up to a NeuX profile with a hat-trick of gap ups on Thursday which saw the auction completing the 1 ATR objective of 17058 from previous day’s FA and continued the trend of higher opens with another gap up on 24th Dec which was right in the initiative tail of 17th and saw supply coming back as it left selling singles in the IB but a C side extension lower stalled the move down resulting in another ‘b’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 16947 indicating that the morning shorts may have started to book out. The last week of December started with a gap lower and a probe down to 16833 at open on 27th but saw some aggressive buying coming in just above the FA of 16818 as Nifty left an initiative tail and made multiple REs higher getting accepted in the selling singles of 24th with the dPOC also forming higher at 17083 which was followed by the third 3-day balance of the month from 28th to 30th Dec as the new demand formed Value in the supply zone of 17th with the composite at 17206-17230-17242 and signalled a move away from this balance on the last day of the month with another initiative buying tail but settled down to form a ‘p’ shape profile with a close right at the prominent dPOC of 17356.
The monthly profile is a 3-1-3 one with mostly lower Value at 16982-17240-17472 and this month’s prominent POC of 17240 will be the level to watch in January 2022 staying above which Nifty could probe higher towards the monthly selling tail of 17544 to 17639 along with the November POC of 17961 whereas on the downside, breaking below 17240 could bring the daily VPOC of 17083 into play below which the FA’s of 16818 & 16688 will be the levels to watch.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 17169 and the POC is at 17240
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 17260 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 17635 and the POC is at 17961
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 17600 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 18036 and the POC is at 18155
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 17901 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 17519 and the POC is at 17365
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 17611 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 16455 and the POC is at 16255
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 16642 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 15780 and the POC is at 15810
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 15805 F.
BankNifty Spot – 35482 [ 37581 / 34018 ]
Monthly Profile (December 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is once again an elongated one with mostly lower Value at 36960-39404-40080 with a close around the lows where it has left a small tail from 35526 to 35328 which if taken out could lead to more downside in December‘
BankNifty opened the month slightly higher and made an upside probe for the first 3 days giving an Open Drive Up on 3rd Dec where it made a high of 36844 but the failure of this Drive led to a complete retracement of the rise as it came back to make a low of 35697 in a spike close on the 06th stalling right at previous month’s close but this Neutral Extreme Day not only got rejected on 7th Dec but also confirmed a Drive Up with a long initiative tail from 36280 to 36014 changing the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) to the upside as it formed an elongated profile of 807 points and continued this imbalance with a gap up on 08th where the auction made new highs for the month at 37385 with the help of a failed C side extension. BankNifty then gave an Open Rejection Reverse (ORR) start on 9th Dec after making marginal new highs of 37397 retracing the rise of previous day but for the second day running, a typical C side extension stalled the downside probe though the initiative selling tail remained at the top and this was followed by a rare Normal Day on 10th Dec in a very narrow range of 329 points where for the third day in succession sellers failed to make any meaningful extension after breaking the IB (Initial Balance) and all these shorts were forced to cover in the gap up open on 13th Dec as the auction settled down into an OAOR but went on to tag the November HVN of 37440 while making a high of 37581 in the B period. BankNifty remained in a narrow range for the first half building the POC at 37480 before the G period gave an initiative move away to the downside with an extension handle at 37286 and fell to 36862 into the close and continued this imbalance by dropping further to 36545 on 14th but the C side extension along with similar lows hinted at slight exhaustion which gave a bounce back to 37083 on 15th Dec where it formed a narrow 340 point range Normal Day and the gap up open on 16th was swiftly rejected giving the second ORR start of the month and this strong open led to a range expansion & a Double Distribution Trend Day Down with a new extension handle at 36791 and a fall to 36385. The Drive Down on 17th further accelerated the fall as the auction not only left a long selling tail from 36132 to 36550 but went on to close with a spike lower to 35535 confirming a daily extension handle at 35696 and made it a hat-trick of strong open by the sellers with a big gap down of almost 500 points along with a Drive on 20th Dec triggering a trending move lower till the H period as BankNifty first broke below August lows of 34588 and then the July low of 34115 as it hit 34018 and left a small responsive buying tail till 34100 marking the end of the downmove as the daily profile represented a ‘b’ shape with a prominent POC at 34348. The imbalance then turned to a balance over the next 8 days where the auction remained above 34348 & formed composite Value at 34791-35187-35259 before giving an initiative move away from this zone on 31st Dec with a buying tail from 35404 to 35113 but could only form a ‘p’ shape daily profile with another prominent POC at 35483 and a close right there.
The monthly profile looks like a Double Distribution one with a small selling tail at top from 37398 to 37581 and the extension handle of 35696 seperating the 2 distributions with a small buying tail at lows from 34233 to 34018. Value was completely lower at 34260-35100-36600 with 35696 being the immediate reference on the upside above which the daily VPOCs of 35880 / 36880 & 37480 could come into play whereas on the downside, BankNifty turns weak below 35259 for a probe towards the lower daily VPOC of 35066 & the HVN of 34348.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 36082 and the POC is at 35100
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 35240 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 38047 and the POC is at 39404
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 37555 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 39368 and the POC is at 41157
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 39650 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 37100 and the POC is at 36633
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 37596 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 35715 and the POC is at 35616
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 35699 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 35096 and the POC is at 34804
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 34860 F.