Nifty Spot – 16794 [ 17794 / 16203 ]
Monthly Profile (February 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The January 2022 profile was a Neutral one with overlapping to higher Value at 17310-17703-18326 with a daily FA at 17264 & the 27th Jan VPOC at 17010 as important levels on the downside whereas on the upside, Nifty will need to get above the daily VPOCs of 17604 & 17784 from 21st & 20th Jan above which the 19th Jan POC of 17921 could come into play before it can make an attempt towards that final frontier of 18261 from 18th Jan in the coming month
Nifty opened the month with a big 378 point range Budget session on 01st Feb where it broke below the daily FA (Failed Auction) of 17264 but in the process confirmed a weekly one at 17244 and went on to tag the first of the daily VPOCs of 17604 from 21st Jan leaving a Neutral Extreme profile and continued this upmove with a gap up open on 02nd Feb as well where it tagged the next higher VPOC of 17784 from 20th Jan while making a high of 17795 but remained in a very narrow 120 point range indicating poor trade facilitation as it formed a balanced profile with a prominent POC at 17745. The auction then gave a move away from this POC with a hat-trick of initiative selling tails in the IB (Initial Balance) over the next 3 sessions as it left new daily VPOCs at 17706 & 17546 and made a huge 417 point Triple Distribution Trend Day Down on 07th Feb where it broke below previous month’s Value hitting new lows for the week at 17119 and continued to extend further down on 08th as it hit 17044 but left a small responsive buying tail in the D period forming a balanced profile with Value completely inside marking end of the downmove.
Nifty opened higher on 09th Feb confirming another weekly FA at 17044 as it formed a narrow range ‘p’ shape profile with a small spike to 17477 into the close and continued this momentum the next day with a trending move to 17639 but stopped just short of the 1 ATR target of 17657 from the weekly FA of 17044 leaving similar highs which signalled exhaustion in the upmove as the day ended near the prominent POC of 17615 and the reversal of the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) to the downside got confirmed with a 150 point gap down open on 11th Feb where the auction took temporary support at the monthly VAL of 17310 but took this out with another big 300 point gap down on 14th Feb where it not only negated the weekly FA of 17044 & tagging the 27th Jan VPOC of 17010 but went on to close with a spike down to 16809. This spike however was rejected as Nifty opened higher on 15th and triggered a massive short covering move of 536 points resulting in a Trend Day Up as it confirmed the 3rd weekly FA of the month at 16809 and it went on to tag the 1 ATR objective of 17414 on 16th Feb but left a responsive selling tail from 17464 to 17491 forming a Neutral Centre Day which marked the end of the upside.
The auction then formed lower lows over the next 4 days as it left couple of daily VPOCs at 17386 & 17295 while making a low of 16844 on 22nd Feb where it took support in the initiative buying tail from 15th Feb & gave a bounce back to 17221 with a gap up open on 23rd but left a small initiative selling tail showing supply coming back which led to the biggest gap down open this month of more than 500 points on 24th Feb as Nifty not only opened below the weekly FA of 16809 but continued to trend lower all day closing in a big spike down from 16363 to 16203 tagging the August Monthly VPOC of 16255 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 16205 to the dot. The last 2 days of the month then remained above this spike zone as Nifty ended the month with a Trend Day Up re-visting that FA point of 16809 but was unable to close above it.
The Monthly profile is a Trending one to the downside with a big range of 1591 points with an extension handle at 17674 & overlapping to lower Value at 16891-17409-17619 with 16815 being the immediate reference on the upside for the coming month and as for the downside the closing Trend Day POC of 16704 along with the extension handle of 16506 and the daily swing low of 16356 would be the important levels to hold apart from the 24th Feb Spike lows of 16203 and a break of these could lead to a probe towards the next lower Monthly VPOC of 15809 from July 2021.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 17183 and the POC is at 17409
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 16251 F.
The VWAP of the January 2022 series is at 17669 and the POC is at 17703
The settlement day (Feb 2022) rollover volume point is at 17165 F.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 17169 and the POC is at 17240
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 17260 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 17635 and the POC is at 17961
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 17600 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 18036 and the POC is at 18155
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 17901 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 17519 and the POC is at 17365
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 17611 F.
BankNifty Spot – 36205 [ 39425 / 34991 ]
Monthly Profile (February 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is Normal Variation Up and resembles a ‘p’ shape with completely higher Value at 37110-38232-38490 and looks set to tag the November VPOC of 39404 if gets accepted above 38855 in the coming month but will need fresh volumes above it to continue higher to 39650 & 41157 where as on the downside, BankNifty gets weaker below 38232 for a probe towards 27th Jan VPOC of 37313 & the 25th Jan buying tail of 36928 to 36415‘
BankNifty started the month with a big gap of almost 500 points & went on to leave the first of the several daily FAs (Failed Auction) of the month in a typical C side rejection at 38803 on 01st Feb where it formed a big 1112 point range Neutral Centre Day but negated this FA on 2nd Feb as it made an initiative move to the upside scaling above 38855 and making new highs at 39387 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day. The auction then made an attempt to probe higher on 03rd Feb where it tagged the November VPOC of 39404 but got rejected confirming the second daily FA of the month at 39425 with the day ending as a Neutral Extreme one to the downside which changed the PLR for the month also lower. BankNifty then trended lower for the next 3 days not only completing the 2 ATR objective of 37971 but went on to make new lows for the month at 37319 where it left a responsive buying tail marking the end of this leg down and more confirmation of this came with a gap up open on 09th Feb which was followed but another higher open on the important RBI Policy Day on 10th where the auction left a rare C side extension handle at 38838 and went on to make a high of 39197 but formed a ‘p’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 39095 which meant it was only the shorts who were forced to cover.
The sellers struck back with a gap down open on 11th Feb well below 39095 & remained below the extension handle of 38838 as it formed a narrow range balanced profile with failed attempts to extend the range on both sides but another gap down open on 14th Feb confirmed a multi-day FA at 38790 with an initiative selling tail & completion of the 2 ATR target of 37133 with a spike lower to 36828 into the close and continued this imbalance on 15th Feb where it made new lows for the month at 36667 in the IB but the attempt to extend in the D period resulted in the 4th FA of the month at 36652 which was not just on the daily time frame but on the weekly one too resulting in a super fast move higher to the 2 ATR objective of 38345 which it tagged in the IB on 16th Feb but once again the attempt to make a range extension higher led to the 5th FA of the month at 38462 clearly showing that the sellers were back & also getting more aggressive. BankNifty then made a slow probe lower over the next few days and made a low of 36818 at open on 22nd Feb but left an initiative buying tail triggering a short covering bouce back to 37775 in the A period on 23rd where it left a small selling tail and closed with a spike lower into the close hinting that the bounce was over.
24th Feb then saw a huge 1300 point gap down as the auction negated the powerful weekly FA of 36652 and left a long initiative selling tail from 36309 to 36709 forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the first half of the day with lows of 35889 in the IB but made a massive fall in the second half as it not only made multipe range extensions lower but left a late extension handle at 35711 and spiked lower to 34991 into the close tagging the Dec Monthly VPOC of 35101 & completing the 1 ATR objective of 35006 from the weekly FA of 36652. The closing fall turned out to be more emotional as BankNifty opened well above the extension handle of 35711 with a 870 point gap up on 25th & left a buying tail in the IB to form value in previous day’s selling singles leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 36456 but made another big gap down open of 500 points on the last day of the month as it negated the buying singles of 25th forming lower Value displaying that the sellers were still in control.
The monthly profile is a Trend Down One with a massive range of 4434 points and has made an outside bar in terms of range although the Value was slightly overlapping to higher at 37200-37712-39180 as it was forming a balance for most part of the month before leaving an extension handle at 36780 which will be the immediate upside reference for the coming month whereas on the downside, the responsive tail of 35611 to 34991 will be the zone to watch.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 37712 and the POC is at 37712
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 35296F.
The VWAP of the January 2022 series is at 37772 and the POC is at 38232
The settlement day (Feb 2022) rollover volume point is at 38240F.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 36082 and the POC is at 35100
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 35240 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 38047 and the POC is at 39404
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 37555 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 39368 and the POC is at 41157
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 39650 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 37100 and the POC is at 36633
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 37596 F.