Nifty Spot – 15763 [ 15962 / 15513 ]
Monthly Profile (July 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘Nifty stayed above the extension handle of 15330 but formed the narrowest monthly range in the last 18 months of just 465 points as the imbalance of previous month led to a balance and a perfect Gaussian Profile with completely higher Value at 15618-15721-15834 with a close right at the monthly POC of 15721 and has a good chance of turning into an imbalance in the coming month provided it gives an initiative move away from this POC
Nifty did not give any inititive move as it made an OAIR (Open Auction In Range) start and continued the balance it was forming last month remaining largely in previous month’s Value all of July as it took support just above June’s VAL of 15618 in the opening 2 weeks and even made a look up above the VAH of 15834 couple of times even succeeding in making consecutive new ATH of 15952 & 15962 on 15th & 16th Jul leaving an overlapping POC at 15931 but could not sustain as it not only made a gap down open in the third week but completed the 80% Rule in the monthly Value hitting new lows of 15578 on the 20th but once again took support at 15618 triggering the 80% Rule to the upside as well with the auction making a high of 15900 on 23rd giving a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) close to the week. The auction could not get above this NeuX zone in the last week and the failure to take out that VPOC of 15931 then led to a big liquidation move on 27th & 28th Jul where Nifty formed the largest daily range for the month of 181 & 254 points respectively and hit new lows of 15513 taking support at the last initiative buying tail it had left on 18th Jun after making the swing low of 15451 it had formed the previous day with a responsive tail. This positional reference holding led to a good retracement back to 15863 into the last day of the month before it saw a quick drop of 100 points in the closing hour to get back to the monthly VWAP of 15780 leaving a Neutral Centre Month with an almost same open & close once again forming a Gaussian profile with slightly higher to overlapping Value at 15701-15804-15883.
Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of July on MPLite
Monthly Zones:
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 15780 spot and the POC is at 15810
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 15805 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 15721 spot and the POC is at 15721
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 15840 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 14945 spot and the POC is at 15094
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 15396 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 14576 spot and the POC is at 14375
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 14925 F.
The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 14816 spot and the POC is at 14737
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 14425 F.
The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 14893 spot and the POC is at 15115
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 15174 F.
BankNifty Spot – 34584 [ 35985 / 34115 ]
Monthly Profile (July 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 34660-35070-35460 and the last 2 months is now showing a Double Distribution profile with the zone of 34300 to 33300 seperating the 2 distributions
BankNifty also made an OAIR start to the month forming a 2-day balance with an overlapping POC right at the monthly VAL of 34754 where it made a base and moved away to the upside for the first half of the month as it first scaled above the monthly VAH of 35460 and then took out the swing highs of 35811 on 15th July triggering further short covering as the auction went on to hit 35985 but left similar highs forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day which meant there was no fresh buying seen in this positional supply zone which had a selling extension handle at 35988 way back on 12th Mar. The next day (16th Jul) gave more confirmation of the upside probe coming to an end with a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile and this gave the green signal (actually RED) for the shorts to come back in full force which they did triggering a big move to the downside over the last 2 weeks as it went on to make lows of 34115 on 28th Jul and took support in the initiative buying tail from 21st Jun and just as the ‘p’ shape profile signalled limited upside on 15th Jul, a ‘b’ shape profile on 28th was a sign that the move lower for the month was done with leading to a retracement to 34778 on 29th Jul before closing the month at 34584. The monthly profile was Neutral One with value forming an outside bar at 34470-34804-35490 and this 2 month balance where the higher of the 2 buying extension handles from May at 34170 being defended could lead to an imbalance in August.
Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of July on MPLite
Monthly Zones:
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 35096 spot and the POC is at 34804
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 34860 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 35012 spot and the POC is at 35070
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 35000 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 33568 spot and the POC is at 34828
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 35380 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 32260 spot and the POC is at 32490
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 33765 F.
The VWAP of the March 2021 series is at 34618 spot and the POC is at 33870
The settlement day (Apr) rollover volume point is at 33250 F.
The VWAP of the February 2021 series is at 35530 spot and the POC is at 35820
The settlement day (Mar) rollover volume point is at 36719 F.
