Nifty Spot – 17158 [ 17173 / 15511 ]
Monthly Profile (July 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile was once again a Double Distribution Trend One Down with overlapping to lower Value at 15185-15793-16275 and has closed right around the POC and has the mid-profile selling singles from 15927 to 16172 which would be the reference on the upside for the coming month along with the daily VPOCs of 16215 / 16364 / 16568 & 16731 whereas on the downside the daily VPOCs of 15680 / 15562 / 15463 & 15298 would be the levels to watch for
- Nifty opened the month of July with a trending move to the downside as it tagged the daily VPOCs of 15680 & 15562 in the IB on 01st Jul but made the dreaded C side extension to 15511 where it not only confirmed a daily FA but went on to complete the 1 ATR objective of 15712 & made new highs of 15794 into the close leaving a Neutral Extreme Up profile with the dPOC at 15647.
- The auction then began the first week with another downside probe to 15661 on 04th July but confirmed another daily FA just above the yPOC of 15647 indicating that the demand was trying to take control over the supply leading to back to back NeuX Up Days which got a rare follow up with a trending move higher for the first half of the day on 05th as it made a high of 16025 in the G period where the OAOR start for the day confirmed reversal leading to a hat-trick of NeuX profiles but this time closed in a spike down from 15838 to 15785 stopping just above the yPOC of 15762 and as with majority of NeuX Days did not give any follow through & got back to balance forming an inside day on 06th Jul as it filled up the low volume zone while forming the dPOC at 15877 which was also near the June series VWAP of 15895 and closed near the highs after which it resumed the upmove with a gap up open on 07th where it hit new highs for the month but remained in a narrow range of just 105 points and confirmed a pretty late FA at 16045 forming a nice Gaussian Profile as well as a Neutral day with a prominent POC at 16107 and continued the imbalance with another gap up open on 08th Jul where it completed the 1 ATR objective of 16269 but made an OH start right at previous month’s VAH of 16275 and formed a ‘b’ shape profile signalling longs booking out.
- The second week opened lower but took support just above 16107 on 11th as the buyers made an attempt to come back and were even successful in leaving a late extension handle at 16175 to tag 16248 but stalled in the Selling Singles of previous profile as the supply overpowered the demand triggering a trending move lower for the rest of the week as Nifty not only opened below 16175 on 12th but confirmed a FA at 16159 and made sell side extensions over the next 2 days as it tagged the 06th Jul VPOC of 15877 while making a low of 15858 leaving a small but important responsive buying tail indicating demand coming back in this zone and followed it up with a gap up on 15th Jul where the sellers once again made extensions lower but buyers came back strongly to leave a Neutral Extreme Day Up along with an inside bar.
- Nifty then not only opened the third week with a gap up negating the FA of 16159 on 18th Jul but formed a Trend Up week of 610 points as it tagged the four higher VPOCs of 16215 / 16364 / 16568 & 16731 & made buy side extensions on all days including a huge gap of 222 points on 20th Jul closing the week with another NeuX Day Up with a FA at 16611 & hitting a high of 16752 as it stopped just short of the daily swing high of 16793 from 03rd Jun.
- This huge imbalance led to a small retracement at the start of the last week as the auction left initiative selling tails on 25th & 26th Jul and made small sell side extensions making lower lows of 16564 & 16463 after which it tested the Gap Mid-point from 20th Jul with a lower open on 27th but left an A period buying tail confirming return of demand and formed a Trend Day Up & continued this imbalance with a big gap up of 133 points on 28th Jul where it scaled above 16793 & formed back to back Trend Day Up tagging the 05th May VPOC of 16835 & revisting that day’s FA of 16945 and followed it up with another bigger gap up of 149 points on 29th where Nifty got into the 04th May profile where the higher timeframe imbalance had started and left another daily FA at 17018 to hit the April’s monthly VPOC of 17145 into the close ending the month just the way it had started which is with a NeuX profile.
The Monthly Profile is a Trending One to the upside with Value at 15523-15976-16123 and has an initiative buying tail from 15661 to 15511 along with extension handles at 16288 & 16752 in between which there is a zone of singles from 16438 to 16288 and a TPO HVN at 16562 with a spike close for the month from 16947 to 17173 which will be the immediate zone to watch in the new month.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 16556 and the POC is at 15976
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 16963 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 15895 and the POC is at 15793
The settlement day (July 2022) rollover volume point is at 15720 F.
The VWAP of the May 2022 series is at 16270 and the POC is at 16340
The settlement day (Jun 2022) rollover volume point is at 16180 F.
The VWAP of the April 2022 series is at 17430 and the POC is at 17145
The settlement day (May 2022) rollover volume point is at 17265 F.
The VWAP of the March 2022 series is at 16753 and the POC is at 17255
The settlement day (Apr 2022) rollover volume point is at 17546 F.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 17183 and the POC is at 17409
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 16251 F.
BankNifty Spot – 37491 [ 37754 / 33080 ]
Monthly Profile July 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The Monthly profile resembles a Double Distribution Trend One Down with extension handles at 34800 / 34620 & 34290 and overlappng to lower Value at 32400-33498-34620 with a small buying tail at lows from 32426 to 32290 which will be the support zone apart from the daily VPOC of 33152 for the coming month and staying above 33498, the auction could probe higher towards the daily VPOCs of 33919 & the immediate extension handle of 34290 as immediate objectives above which we have the daily VPOCs of 34622 & 34819 along with the extension handle of 35470 & top most daily VPOC of 35707 as higher targets‘
- BankNifty opened this month with a gap down & tested the daily VPOC of 33152 while making a low of 33080 but left a small buying tail and formed a Trend Day Up as it went on to make a high of 33666 to signal its intentions quite clearly.
- The first week then saw the continuation of this upside imbalance as the auction formed higher Value on 4 of the 5 days leaving couple of daily VPOCs at 33755 & 34120 while making a high of 35262 on 8th Jul leaving a big 1747 points range for the week.
- The second week continued the upside with an Open Drive Up on 11th Jul as BankNifty made a ‘p’ shape profile for most part of the day before leaving an extension handle at 35366 to tag new highs for the month at 35543 but left similar highs indicating exhaustion and this was taken advantage of by the sellers as they took control for the rest of the week making downside Range Extension on the remaining 4 days but also saw range contraction happening closing the week with a ‘b’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 34580 on 15th Jul which meant sellers were stuggling to extend further.
- More confirmation of this came in form of a gap up at the start of the third week on 18th which also saw a typical C side extension to 34804 as the auction confrimed a FA there forming a Neutral Extreme Day Up reversing the PLR once again to the upside as it followed it up with a big initiative buying tail on 19th Jul which also marked the move away from a 8-day composite and the start of a fresh imbalance which resulted in higher highs on 20th & 21st and a Double Distribution Trend Day up to end the week as it hit 36823.
- The last week started with news highs of 37011 on 25th Jul which was not sustained as BankNifty left an initiative selling tail in the IB and got back down to fill up the DD profile and continued the probe lower on 26th with another A period selling tail as it formed a ‘b’ shape profile getting into the Initiative Buying tail from 22nd and even made a look down below it at open on 27th Jul which was swiftly rejected as the demand came back in shape of a small buying tail & en extension handle at 36425 to form the third Trend Day Up of the month taking it back to 36808 and continued this imbalance with back to back 300+ gap up opens on the last 2 days of the month as the auction hit 37754 on 29th but left an A period tail till 37589 after which it made a big C side extension to 37221 but could not extend further closing the month with a ‘b’ shape profile indicating profit booking by the longs.
The Monthly profile is an elongated trending one of 4674 points with overlapping to higher Value at 33128-35099-35624 which started with an initiative buying tail from 33515 to 33080 and left 6 extensions handles at 33666, 34361, 35543 , 36248, 36823 & 37011 before closing in a spike from 37414 to 37754 which will be the immediate zone on watch.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 35427 and the POC is at 35099
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 37434 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 33969 and the POC is at 33498
The settlement day (July 2022) rollover volume point is at 33380 F.
The VWAP of the May 2022 series is at 34570 and the POC is at 34477
The settlement day (Jun 2022) rollover volume point is at 35250 F.
The VWAP of the April 2022 series is at 37090 and the POC is at 36386
The settlement day (May 2022) rollover volume point is at 36515 F.
The VWAP of the March 2022 series is at 34992 and the POC is at 35648
The settlement day (Apr 2022) rollover volume point is at 36550 F.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 37712 and the POC is at 37712
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 35296F.