Nifty Spot – 17464 [ 17560 / 15671 ]
Monthly Profile (March 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The Monthly profile is a Trending one to the downside with a big range of 1591 points with an extension handle at 17674 & overlapping to lower Value at 16891-17409-17619 with 16815 being the immediate reference on the upside for the coming month and as for the downside the closing Trend Day POC of 16704 along with the extension handle of 16506 and the daily swing low of 16356 would be the important levels to hold apart from the 24th Feb Spike lows of 16203 and a break of these could lead to a probe towards the next lower Monthly VPOC of 15809 from July 2021
Nifty continued previous month’s imbalanace to the downside as it opened March 2022 with a 200 point gap down negating the Trend Day close of 28th Feb as it remained below that day’s POC of 16704 on 02nd Mar forming a long liquidation ‘b’ shape profile with some short covering seen into the close. The auction made an attempt to get above 16704 with a gap up open on 03rd Mar but was swiftly rejected giving way to a long initiative selling tail from 16769 to 16674 & an extension handle at 16606 resulting in a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down and followed it up with another big gap down open on 04th Mar where it broke below the daily swing low of 16356 & tested the 24th Feb Spike low of 16203 while making a low of 16134 but saw some good short covering as it closed at 16245 forming a Neutral Centre Day.
The second week of the month started with another huge gap down of 377 points on 07th Mar as Nifty broke below the July 2021 Monthly VPOC of 15809 and made a low of 15711 but formed the second Neutral Centre Day indicating demand coming back in this zone and though the auction made new lows for the month at 15671 on 08th Mar, it closed at the highest point of the day regaining the 16000 zone leaving a Neutral Extreme Day which meant that there was a probability of a swing low being formed. More confirmation of this came in form of an initiative buying tail on 09th Mar as not only the NeuX profile got a follow up but ended in a classic Trend Day up making a high of 16418 and continued this imbalance with an enormous 412 point gap up on 10th Mar stalling just below the top of 02nd Mar’s selling tail triggering a retracement back to 16448 but left a responsive buying tail at the lows to indicate support which was further strenthened by an initiative one on 11th Mar as the auction left a buying tail to form an inside bar and a ‘p’ shape profile on the daily which meant that the supply was being forced to cover.
Nifty then opened the third week of March strongly with the second Trend Day Up for the month on 14th Mar where it made new highs of 16888 stopping just below previous month’s VAL of 16891 and the gap up open on 15th Mar above this level saw aggressive supply coming back resulting in a round of profit booking also by the longs as the auction formed an outside bar on the daily leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day Down making a low of 16555 but left a responsive buying tail in the 11th Mar singles signalling buyers making a comeback in this zone and they caused a gap up open of more than 200 points on 16th Mar getting accepted inside previous month’s Value as it formed a prominent POC at 16908 before closing in a spike higher to 16988.
Nifty made another 225 point gap up open on 17th Mar which also marked the end of the imbalance & the start of a balance inside the Value Area of Feb over the next 8 days where on the upside it got rejected from the Feb POC of 17409 on 23rd leaving a selling tail from 17408 to 17442 where as on the downside it defended the daily extension handle of 16988 not once but twice as it made similar lows of 17006 & 17004 on the 22nd & 28th Mar respectively. The auction signalled a move away from this 8-day compsite with another gap up of 140+ points on 30th Mar where it left an initiative buying tail but could only form a ‘p’ shape profile and continued to form a balance on the last day of the month hitting new highs of 17560 & building a prominent 2-day overlapping POC around 17500 from where it could give a move away in the next session.
The Monthly Profile is once again an elongated one of 1888 points and a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) one with a monthly FA at lows of 15671 which has completed the 1 ATR objective of 16780 and the 2 ATR target comes to 17889. Value was overlapping to lower at 16506-17255-17556 with a close around the highs & the NeuX zone reference for the coming month would be from 17353 to 17560 where as on the upside, Nifty will need to negate Feb extension handle of 17674 for a probable probe to the Jan Monthly HVN of 18193.
The VWAP of the March 2022 series is at 16753 and the POC is at 17255
The settlement day (Apr 2022) rollover volume point is at 17546 F.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 17183 and the POC is at 17409
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 16251 F.
The VWAP of the January 2022 series is at 17669 and the POC is at 17703
The settlement day (Feb 2022) rollover volume point is at 17165 F.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 17169 and the POC is at 17240
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 17260 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 17635 and the POC is at 17961
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 17600 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 18036 and the POC is at 18155
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 17901 F.
BankNifty Spot – 36373 [ 36827 / 32155 ]
Monthly Profile (March 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is a Trend Down One with a massive range of 4434 points and has made an outside bar in terms of range although the Value was slightly overlapping to higher at 37200-37712-39180 as it was forming a balance for most part of the month before leaving an extension handle at 36780 which will be the immediate upside reference for the coming month whereas on the downside, the responsive tail of 35611 to 34991 will be the zone to watch‘
BankNifty continued previous month’s imbalance to the downside with a gap down open of 823 points on the first trading day of March and negated the responsive tail of 35611 to 34991 as it made a low of 34897 but saw a short covering move back to 35546 into the close and opened with a gap up on 03rd Mar but left an initiative selling tail from 35365 to 35804 to resume the downside imbalance over the next 3 days which also included a huge gap down of 1129 points on 07th Mar culminating in lows of 32155 on 08th Mar which saw the auction reversing the probe to the upside with a Neutral Extreme Up profile on the daily as it moved back to 33263 into the close & followed it up with a Trend Day Up on the 09th where it made a high of 33969.
BankNifty then negated the 07th Mar gap down zone with a huge gap up of 1339 points on 10th Mar but the dreaded C side extension to 35374 triggered a long liquidation break of 1156 points and a NeuX Day Down and continued to probe lower at open on 11th Mar making an attempt to close the gap up but left an initiative buying tail in the IB which meant that the buyers were defending this zone & that the PLR was now to the upside. The auction then made higher higher over the next 3 sessions but stalled near the Monthly highs of 35804 on 16th Mar as it left a narrow 345 point range Normal Day with a prominent POC at 35645 and gave a move away from this balance with the help of a gap up of 554 points on 17th Mar where it formed another narrow range ‘p’ shape daily profile of just 350 points indicating poor trade faciliation as the inventory seemed to have gotten too long.
The third week of the month started with an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) Down on 21st Mar as the auction needed to find fresh demand which was missing & expanded the daily range to 700 points & continued the probe lower on 22nd where it made a low of 35469 in the IB but struggled to extend further as it could only tag 35385 which meant that now the downside was getting exhausted giving way to a big upmove in the second part of the day as it tagged 36469 into the close leaving the second NeuX Up Day for the month & gave a rare follow up to a NeuX profile with a gap up open on 23rd Mar where it hit new monthly highs of 36827 in the A period but saw swift rejection after hitting Feb’s extension handle of 36780 marking the end of the upside for the month. BankNifty continued to probe lower over the next 3 days with the downside getting stalled with a C side extension to 35016 on 28th Mar where it confirmed a FA leaving the third NeuX Day of the month and made higher highs over the last 3 days to tag 36591 on 31st Mar closing the month with a Normal Day of just 313 point range & a prominent POC at 36455.
The Monthly Profile similar to Nifty is an elongated one of 4672 points and a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) one with a monthly FA at lows of 32155 which has completed the 1 ATR objective of 35674 and the 2 ATR target comes to 39193. Value was completely lower at 34170-35648-36390 but has closed around the VAH so the PLR for the coming month would be towards the Feb Monthly VPOC of 37712.
The VWAP of the March 2022 series is at 34992 and the POC is at 35648
The settlement day (Apr 2022) rollover volume point is at 36550 F.
The VWAP of the February 2022 series is at 37712 and the POC is at 37712
The settlement day (Mar 2022) rollover volume point is at 35296F.
The VWAP of the January 2022 series is at 37772 and the POC is at 38232
The settlement day (Feb 2022) rollover volume point is at 38240F.
The VWAP of the December 2021 series is at 36082 and the POC is at 35100
The settlement day (Jan 2022) rollover volume point is at 35240 F.
The VWAP of the November 2021 series is at 38047 and the POC is at 39404
The settlement day (Dec) rollover volume point is at 37555 F.
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 39368 and the POC is at 41157
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 39650 F.