Nifty Spot – 17671 [ 18604 / 17452 ]
Monthly Profile (October 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile started with similar lows in the opening week & ended with poor highs in the closing week with Value being completely higher at 17276-17365-17766 along with a close right in the middle of the Value
Nifty opened the month with a rare follow up to a Neutral Extreme Down profile on the daily as it gapped down on 1st Oct and made a low of 17453 in the IB (Initial Balance) but could not extend lower forming a narrow 104 points range Normal Day with a prominent POC at 17518 (which was indidentally also previous month’s VWAP) indicating poor trade facilitation on the downside. The buyers then made their presence felt as the new week started on 4th Oct with the auction giving a move away from 17518 with the help of an initiative buying tail from 17651 to 17581 and followed it with a Trend Day Up on 5th Oct and extended this imbalance to the upside with a gap up open on 6th Oct where it made a high of 17884 but saw massive long liquidation happening resulting in a Trend Day Down as Nifty formed an outside bar negating the previous Trend Day Up & went on to spike lower into the close testing the initiative buying tail as it made a low of 17613 but more downside got negated with a huge gap up on 7th Oct with the auction filling up the low volume zone of previous day and forming a balance with the second narrow range day of the month of just 94 points leaving a prominent POC at 17806 and closed the week with a move away from here on Friday (8th Oct) but stalled just below the ATH (All Time High) of 17947 forming a perfect Gaussian Curve and a Neutral Day also confirming a FA (Failed Auction) at the lows of 17840. Nifty then gave the second initiative move on the weekly timeframe starting 11th Oct where it left a buying tail in the IB and went on to celebrate new ATH of 18042 with a double century but formed similar highs indicating short term exhaustion which led to a pull back into the close along with a test of the buying tail on 12th Oct as the auction formed a balance in the zone and the attempt to probe lower was met with rejection at 17865 resulting in a Neutral Extreme Up Day and a series of gap up opens for the next 4 days as Nifty left an important extension handle at 18042 on the larger timeframe and another daily FA at 18248 on 14th Oct and promptly completed the 2 ATR objective of 18590 in just couple of sessions forming an almost OH (Open=High) start at 18602 on 19th Oct which led to a profit booking and a huge liquidation drop of 204 points in the IB and the subsequent pull back stalled right at the 18590 zone three times indicating that the demand was now waning and sellers were clawing back and more confirmation of this came with another big fall into the close where the auction went on to make new lows for the day at 18378 and trended lower for the rest of the week making lower lows while testing the extension handle of 18042 on 22nd Oct. This imbalance to the downside continued in the last week as Nifty broke below 18042 convincingly and made a low of 17968 in the IB on 25th Oct where it formed a large range of 273 points and remained in the same indicating profit booking by the shorts. The auction then formed the third Neutral Extreme Up Day of the month on 26th as the downside RE (Range Extension) got rejected at 18099 but followed it up with a rejection of the upside RE on 27th Oct as it confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) at 18342 and this set up a trending move lower not just for the day but for the rest of the week as it not only completed the 2 ATR objective of 17952 but went on to make a low once again at 17613 before closing the week/month at 17671. The monthly profile is an elongated 3-1-3 profile of 1152 points with completely higher Value at 17773-18155-18347 with the buying tail at lows from 17581 to 17452 and the selling singles from 18543 to 18604.
Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of October as per above analysis on MPLite
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 18036 and the POC is at 18155
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 17901 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 17519 and the POC is at 17365
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 17611 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 16455 and the POC is at 16255
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 16642 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 15780 and the POC is at 15810
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 15805 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 15721 and the POC is at 15721
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 15840 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 14945 and the POC is at 15094
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 15396 F.
BankNifty Spot – 39115 [ 41829 / 36876 ]
Monthly Profile (October 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly Value was completely higher at 36480-36633-36780 with a low volume zone from 36750 to 37680 which it could fill up in the first few sessions of the coming month.
BankNifty opened the month with a downside probe to 36876 in the A period on 01st Oct where it confirmed an initiative buying tail and this happening at the start of a new month meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had turned firmly to the upside and more confirmation came on 4th Oct when the auction left another initiative tail on the weekly timeframe too following it up with a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day on the 5th where it made a high of 37787 and continued the imbalance to the upside with a RE (Range Extension) higher on 6th Oct which was not only rejected but got confirmed as a FA (Failed Auction) at 38107 signalling the end of upmove and a move back to balance for the rest of the week forming a prominent weekly POC at 37752. The auction gave yet another initiative buying tail at the start of the next week as it moved away from 37752 forming a Trend Day Up on 11th Oct which also resulted in new ATH being tagged at 38495 and made higher highs of 38609 & 38779 over the next couple of days before ending the week with another DD profile on 14th Oct where it left mid-profile singles from 38897 to 39120 before closing almost at highs of 39375 and continued this imbalance with a gap up open the following week as it made highs of 39947 on 18th and followed it up with another gap up open recording new ATH of 40011 in the A period but saw profit booking coming in which led to a balance being formed over the next 3 days with overlapping Value & POC around 39680. BankNifty then gave an initiative move away from this balance on the 21st with couple of extension handles at 39768 & 39983 as it made new highs even of 40200 & continued this mad run up on 22nd Oct where it formed higher Value and higher highs of 40587 with a close around the prominent POC of 40318 after which the upmove turned into euphoria on 25th Oct as once again the auction started the week with a buying tail forming a large IB range of 517 points scaling above the peak of 41000 for the first time ever and made huge REs to the upside in the C, E & F periods where it made a high of 41829 completing a huge 1322 point range in just half a day but also marked the end of the OTF (One Time Frame) probe higher with a responsive selling tail from 41699 to 41829 being confirmed at the completion of the G period which inturn led to a liquidation move back to 41030 into the close of the day. BankNifty then formed a balance over the next 2 days building a prominent POC around 41180 and gave a late move away from here as it spiked lower into the close on 27th Oct which signalled that the imbalance this time could be to the downside which got confirmed with a strong Open Drive Down on 28th Oct and the first meaningful initiative selling tail of the month which meant that the sellers were back in full force resulting in a Trend Day Down over a huge range of 1581 points as the auction went on to make a low of 39350 and continued this probe with another big fall of 1000 points at open on 29th Oct where it went on to test the daily extension handle of 38495 while making a low of 38426 where it was swiftly rejected leading to some good profit booking and a bounce back to 39775 where it stopped right at previous day’s extension handle from where the auction reversed to the downside for the day to leave a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 38788 before closing the day / week / month at 39115. The monthly profile in BankNifty also is an elongated one of 4953 points with tails at both ends and completely higher Value at 38280-41157-41340.
Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of October on MPLite
The VWAP of the October 2021 series is at 39368 and the POC is at 41157
The settlement day (Nov) rollover volume point is at 39650 F.
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 37100 and the POC is at 36633
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 37596 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 35715 and the POC is at 35616
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 35699 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 35096 and the POC is at 34804
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 34860 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 35012 and the POC is at 35070
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 35000 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 33568 and the POC is at 34828
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 35380 F.