Nifty Spot – 17618 [ 17947 / 17055 ]
Monthly Profile (September 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile is an elongated trending one to the upside with a huge range of 1319 points and completely higher Value at 16177-16255-16653 which has a long buying tail from 16162 to 15834 at the bottom along with the couple of extension handles at 16375 & 16722. However, the immediate zone to watch for the new month would be from 16951 to 17153 staying above which the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) would continue to remain to the upside
Nifty opened the month with a gap up hitting new ATH of 17225 on 1st Sep but saw good profit booking which led to a test of previous month’s spike zone of 17153 to 16951 as it formed poor lows at 17055 & 17059 on the first 2 days indicating that the downside was limited as it left an initiative buying tail on 2nd Sep and left a VPOC at 17177 to probe higher hitting new highs of 17436 in the second week but remained in a narrow 182 point range forming a weekly Gaussian profile with a prominent POC at 17368. This balance on the higher timeframe then gave way to a fresh imbalance of 524 points in the third week of September as the auction formed a Trend Up profile while tagging 17793 on 17th Sep but a small responsive selling tail triggered good weekend profit booking leading to a Neutral Extreme Down Day as it closed the week more than 200 points down at 17585. The third week started with yet another Neutral Extreme Day Down as Nifty got rejected right at the weekly POC of 17624 on 20th Sep triggering a fresh fall and a test of the lower prominent weekly POC of 17368 and the re-test of this important level again on 21st Sep saw a small responsive buying tail being formed contributing to a hat-trick of Neutral Extreme Days but the third one was to the upside indicating change of direction as it went on to give another hat-trick, this time of higher opens as well as higher Vaue over the next 3 days as it hit new ATH of 17947 on 24th Sep where it failed to make a RE (Range Extension) to the upside forming a balanced profile. Nifty opened the last week by forming similar highs in the IB on 27th Sep at 17943 & 17942 clearly showing exhaustion setting in the upmove and this triggered a liquidation drop to 17576 as the auction took support at the 22nd Sep VPOC and formed a balance on the last 2 days of the month but left a daily FA at 17742 on 30th Sep before closing at 17618 leaving the 6th Neutral Extreme Day of the month. The monthly profile started with similar lows in the opening week & ended with poor highs in the closing week with Value being completely higher at 17276-17365-17766 along with a close right in the middle of the Value.
Click here to view the daily Nifty chart of September as per above analysis on MPLite
Monthly Zones:
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 17519 and the POC is at 17365
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 17611 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 16455 and the POC is at 16255
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 16642 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 15780 and the POC is at 15810
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 15805 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 15721 and the POC is at 15721
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 15840 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 14945 and the POC is at 15094
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 15396 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 14576 and the POC is at 14375
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 14925 F.
BankNifty Spot – 37425 [ 38377 / 36151 ]
Monthly Profile (September 2021)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘BankNifty could not give an imbalance in August but has formed a short covering ‘p’ shape composite profile on the monthly with completely higher Value at 35400-35616-36240 and a close around the highs suggesting that the trending move on the upside could come in the month of September provided the auction gets fresh demand above 36240.
BankNifty opened the month with a gap up and formed a balance over the first 10 sessions above the monthly VAH of 36240 except for the one session on 07th Sep when it made an attempt to probe lower and got into previous month’s Value but was swiftly rejected confirming a FA (Failed Auction) at 36151 on the daily timeframe which set up the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) to the upside. The auction gave a move away from this 10-day composite of 36554-36633-36819 with a Trend Day Up on 16th Sep where it recorded new ATH (All Time High) of 37720 and continued this imbalance with a gap up open the next day but confirmed the second daily FA of the month at 38112 which not only signalled the end of the upmove but triggered a liquidation move over the next 2 sessions as BankNifty got back into the 10-day composite Value and left a responsive buying tail on 21st Sep marking that the downside was over with a 2-day balance with overlapping POC at 37014 from where it gave an initiative move away to the upside on 23rd Sep followed by a gap up on 24th as it re-visited the FA of 38112 in ‘T+5’ days but closed the week with a ‘b’ shape profile on the daily suggesting profit booking. The last week of the month started with a Normal Day on 27th Sep as the auction made new highs for the month at 38355 in the IB (Initial Balance) but could not extend and gave another gap up open on the 28th where it made marginal new highs of 38377 but confirmed an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start to the downside which led to the biggest fall of the month of over 1050 points in a single session forming a Trend Day Down and remained in the lower part of this profile for the remaining 2 days of the month as it confirmed the third daily FA at 37885 on 30th Sep suggesting the PLR for the new month would start being on the downside. The monthly Value was completely higher at 36480-36633-36780 with a low volume zone from 36750 to 37680 which it could fill up in the first few sessions of the coming month
Click here to view the daily BankNifty chart of September on MPLite
Monthly Zones:
The VWAP of the September 2021 series is at 37100 and the POC is at 36633
The settlement day (Oct) rollover volume point is at 37596 F.
The VWAP of the August 2021 series is at 35715 and the POC is at 35616
The settlement day (Sep) rollover volume point is at 35699 F.
The VWAP of the July 2021 series is at 35096 and the POC is at 34804
The settlement day (Aug) rollover volume point is at 34860 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 35012 and the POC is at 35070
The settlement day (Jul) rollover volume point is at 35000 F.
The VWAP of the May 2021 series is at 33568 and the POC is at 34828
The settlement day (Jun) rollover volume point is at 35380 F.
The VWAP of the April 2021 series is at 32260 and the POC is at 32490
The settlement day (May) rollover volume point is at 33765 F.
