Nifty Spot – 17094 [ 18096 / 16747 ]
Monthly Profile (September 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘The monthly profile was a trending one up for the first part but turned into a balance into the close forming just a 837 point range with completely higher Value at 17241-17530-17689 with the monthly series VWAP also being at 17530
- Nifty started the month of September forming a 5-day balance (01st Sep to 07th Sep) with the composite Value at 17548-17640-17672 and the fact that it remained above previous month’s POC & VWAP of 17530 meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was to the upside.
- The auction then made a trending move higher over the next 4 sessions leaving daily VPOCs at 17744, 17856 & 17952 as it scaled above August monthly high of 17992 & made a high of 18088 on 13th Sep forming a very narrow 73 point range Neutral Centre Day with a close around the prominent POC of 18068. The exhaustion & lack of trade facilitation at the new highs then caused an unexpected gap down of almost 300 points on 14th Sep where it negated the first 2 VPOCs of 17952 & 17856 but took support just above the third one of 17744 as it made a low of 17771 & saw the return of aggressive demand forming a big Double Distribution Trend Day Up hitting marginal new highs for the month at 18091 and saw the dPOC shifting higher to 18047.
- Nifty made a hat-trick of attempts to negate April’s small selling tail of 18089 to 18114 on 15th Sep where it started the day with news highs of Sep at 18096 but was swiftly rejeced confirming an Open Rejection Reverse Down as it left an initiative selling tail till 18049 along with an extension handle at 18014 and formed a long liquidation profile with the dPOC at 17919 signalling the end of the upside for the month and continued the fall with a lower open on 16th Sep where it left another initiative selling tail & completed the 80% Rule in the 5-day balance as it made a a low of 17497.
- The third week of the month started with new lows of 17429 on 19th Sep but left an initiative buying tail and formed a short covering ‘p’ shape profile showing that the auction was trapping some late shorts and this upmove continued on the 20th with a higher open but an irregular profile with similar highs at the 15th Sep long liquidation profile’s VPOC of 17919 showing that the sellers were back in control which got more confirmation with a trending move lower for the rest of the month as it made lower lows on the remaning 8 sessions leaving daily VPOCs at 17866, 17807 & 17452.
- The close of the month was similar to the start as Nifty formed a 5-day balanced profile in the last week as the fall of the first 4 days got completely negated with a big Trend Day Up on 30th Sep where the auction tested the July month’s higher extension handle of 16752 & gave a booming 439 point range to the upside as it made a high of 17187 but saw some profit booking coming in as it closed around the dPOC of 17087 which will be the immediate reference for the next session(s).
September’s monthly profile is a Neutral Extreme one to the downside with completely higher Value at 17332-17643-18088 but has left a selling extension handle at 17429 with a zone of selling singles till 17187 which will be the first zone of supply to watch out for in the coming month with the daily buying extension handles of 17005 & 16851 being the downside levels that would need to hold.
The VWAP of the September 2022 series is at 17500 and the POC is at 17643
The settlement day (Oct 2022) rollover volume point is at 16837 F.
The VWAP of the August 2022 series is at 17530 and the POC is at 17530
The settlement day (Sep 2022) rollover volume point is at 17580 F.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 16556 and the POC is at 15976
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 16963 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 15895 and the POC is at 15793
The settlement day (July 2022) rollover volume point is at 15720 F.
The VWAP of the May 2022 series is at 16270 and the POC is at 16340
The settlement day (Jun 2022) rollover volume point is at 16180 F.
The VWAP of the April 2022 series is at 17430 and the POC is at 17145
The settlement day (May 2022) rollover volume point is at 17265 F.
BankNifty Spot – 38632 [ 41840 / 37386 ]
Monthly Profile September 2022)
Previous month’s report ended with this ‘BankNifty formed a balanced monthly profile after July’s big imbalance with completely higher Value at 38040-38320-39600 and only three daily VPOCs at 37630 / 38259 & 38746 which will be the levels to watch on the downside in the coming month with the 19th Aug initiative selling tail of 39588 to 39759 being the reference zone to the upside‘
- BankNity opened the month with an initiative buying tail with an almost OL (Open=Low) start at 38803 & trended higher for the first half of September as it left daily VPOCs at 39506 & 39931 along with a weekly one at 39804 and went on to form a huge 1338 point range Trend Day Up on 14th Sep where it hit 41627 and continued this imbalance by making new All Time Highs of 41840 at open the next day but left an initiative selling tail forming a long liquidation profile showing that the longs were booking out.
- The auction then made similar lows of 40502 & 40509 on the 16th & 19th Sep indicating inventory going too short too soon as it formed a 2-day balance with overlapping POC at 41042 triggering a short covering ‘p’ shape profile on 20th giving a move away from the balance where it made a high of 41677 but could not enter the 15th Sep selling singles closing around the prominent dPOC of 41487.
- The sellers came back strongly leaving A period selling singles on each of the next 5 sessions as it started a fresh imbalance to the downside from 41487 and left daily VPOCs at 41241, 40785 & 39540 along with a weekly one at 41016 and negated the 3 lower ones of 39931, 39804 & 39506 formed earlier in the month with a big trend day down of 1116 points on 23rd Sep and continued to make lower lows on a daily basis till 30th Sep where it recorded lows of 37386 testing the July month’s spike low of 37414 and found renewed demand coming back leading to a massive 1425 point Trend Day Up as BankNifty went on to tag the monthly IBL of 38803 before profit booking saw it close the month at 38632.
The monthly profile is a Neutral one with overlapping to higher Value at 38940-40790-41640 and will remain weak below this month’s VWAP of 39910 with the mid-profile singles of July from 37221 to 36823 being the immediate zone to watch on the downside in October.
The VWAP of the September 2022 series is at 39910 and the POC is at 40790
The settlement day (Oct 2022) rollover volume point is at 37890 F.
The VWAP of the August 2022 series is at 38530 and the POC is at 38320
The settlement day (Sep 2022) rollover volume point is at 39035 F.
The VWAP of the July 2022 series is at 35427 and the POC is at 35099
The settlement day (Aug 2022) rollover volume point is at 37434 F.
The VWAP of the June 2021 series is at 33969 and the POC is at 33498
The settlement day (July 2022) rollover volume point is at 33380 F.
The VWAP of the May 2022 series is at 34570 and the POC is at 34477
The settlement day (Jun 2022) rollover volume point is at 35250 F.
The VWAP of the April 2022 series is at 37090 and the POC is at 36386
The settlement day (May 2022) rollover volume point is at 36515 F.