OrderFlow charts and Notes 02/12/14

[08:56]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:56]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-2nd-dec/
[08:56]   Porus : GM all
[08:56]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-0112-2/
[08:57]   r m : NF Hypo1 Below 8575➜8516➜8444 SL 8610 Hypo2 Above 8610➜8632➜8660 SL 8588 Above 8666➜8732 DEC Future levels
[08:57]   r m : BNF Hypo1 Below 18600➜18507➜18448➜18210 SL18650 Hypo2 Above 18672➜18718➜18764➜18934 SL 18608 DEC Future levels
[09:03]   Shai : GM all
[09:04]   r m : RBI rate decision at 11:00, investing.com forecast is “no change”
[09:07]   Porus : Any major movements exected before the announcement?
[09:11]   Shai : Mostly the marketes tend to go to previous day’s value and range’
[09:11]   Shai : signs of change will be 8575 and if it stays below
[09:19]   Shai : 8575 seems to be holding
[09:19]   Shai : too early but imp for the bulls t hold that 1
[09:20]   Shai : BNF can touch 18623 abv 18550
[09:21]   Shai : sl 18530
[09:21]   Shai : idea is the same- mkt looking to revisist yesterday’s range even yesterday val
[09:24]   Shai : Int view- http://www.livemint.com/Money/dfrdFPHBdHutpXs3m2L4uN/Analysts-and-markets-differ-on-whether-RBI-will-cut-rate.html
[09:30]   Shai : open is away from range and value toay
[09:31]   Shai : I woud not siggest hypo 1 yet
[09:32]   Shai : post RBI if 8560 is broken then we take shorts with sl of 8576 fr 8516
[09:38]   Assortz : Gm Shai, RM and all
[09:40]   r m : Hi Assortz 🙂
[09:40]   Assortz : feels like car chasing dog on the event days..all cars on the road looks terrible :))
[09:41]   Shai : 🙂
[09:41]   r m : 🙂
[09:54]   Shai : 8590 ref line for the bull now
[09:54]   Shai : weakness certain to 8514 if 856 breaks now
[09:54]   Shai : 8560*
[09:58]   Assortz : Is there a chance we can consider shorts below 8560 as positional or we will play it for intra? @shai
[09:59]   Shai : yes can turn positional
[10:00]   Shai : using drop theory this retrace will be biggest from 7723
[10:00]   Shai : 8623 spot to 8520 spot and hence bears crack a door open
[10:01]   Assortz : tks..in that case, can we consider keeping sl at 8590 or even 8610?
[10:02]   Shai : 8610 better
[10:02]   Assortz : fine
[10:03]   Shai : tgt can go to 8444 even 8372 F
[10:03]   Assortz : ok
[10:04]   Assortz : 8575 was friday’s buyers for Nf..could you pls advise similar level for BNF? I hope we breached that still just wanted to know..
[10:04]   Shai : 18240
[10:05]   Assortz : oops 🙂
[10:05]   Shai : plotted under obs in the blog
[10:06]   Assortz : oh..missed that today..will check..tks
[10:06]   r m : @Assortz, BNF ran up like a maniac on Friday 🙂
[10:07]   Assortz : @rm..yeah didn’t even notice that it had such run..always looking NF till friday..:)
[10:26]   Shai : 8575 broke but 8560 holding up
[10:26]   Shai : but still away from neutral extreme low so bear in command
[10:26]   r m : NF has created a mini balanced profile in IB period 🙂
[10:27]   Shai : last 30 mins – massive adjustment time for retail/ institutions
[10:27]   Shai : so expect swings
[10:32]   Shai : a bullish view – if 8560 F holds now and we enter abv 8605 then we can see 8732 F by tom or thurs
[10:33]   Shai : idea would be then to long abv 8605 with sl of 8560 for 8732
[10:38]   Shai : Over to Rajan
[10:39]   Shai : More likely : He does not do anything but makes the right noise to keep Jaitley/ Modi happy and hints a Feb cut
[10:40]   r m : lol, that will make him a better politician than many presently in parliament 🙂
[10:40]   Ravi V P : Many RBI Events witnessed at 10.50-11.10 a.m with wild swings. Better play with 8500PE and 8600CE in this time
[10:40]   Ravi V P : to make quick bucks with IV
[10:41]   r m : yes Ravi, if Rajan does nothing then pre RBI will be more volatile then post 🙂
[10:41]   Ravi V P : 76 PE 86 CE
[10:50]   Ravi V P : ICICI hdfc bank are inching
[10:51]   Shai : lots of buyers seen
[10:57]   Shai : here’s the swing
[10:58]   Shai : BNF is known to do 150 points in these last 5 mins
[10:59]   Shai : DD in NF surely by afternnon
[10:59]   Amit J : whats dd
[10:59]   Shai : question is whether it chooses 8514 or 8660 for the distribution
[10:59]   Ravi V P : double dist
[10:59]   Shai : another profile lke this morning
[11:00]   Shai : 11
[11:00]   Rahul G : charts are stuck
[11:01]   Shai : unchanged
[11:01]   Amit J : chapo
[11:01]   Amit J : fatega
[11:01]   Amit J : 8700
[11:01]   Amit J : very dovish
[11:01]   Shai : charts stuck?
[11:01]   Chiranthan : no
[11:01]   Shai : ok
[11:01]   Rahul G : sorry working now
[11:02]   Amit J : very very dovish
[11:02]   Ravi V P : icici hdcf bank
[11:03]   Shai : a change in policy early next year
[11:03]   Chiranthan : bnf up 200+ from lows
[11:04]   Amit J : lao
[11:06]   Shai : one good thing is the RBI guy is his own man
[11:06]   Shai : not succumbed to the pressure
[11:07]   Shai : BNF spike 18670- 18404
[11:07]   Shai : NF 8540- 8588
[11:07]   Ravi V P : even Reddy didn’t succumb to PC many times
[11:08]   Amit J : no he proved independence. said u do what promised than i would cut
[11:08]   Shai : he’s mentioned that he is open to cut outside the policy dates also
[11:09]   Shai : Deb cut should excite the bulls now
[11:09]   Shai : Feb
[11:09]   r m : which means that he may cut if next CPI data is also low
[11:09]   Porus : no cut this time?
[11:09]   Shai : No
[11:10]   Shai : policy unchanged – (11:01) Shai :unchanged
[11:10]   Ravi V P : event has become noevent
[11:10]   Mandar : possiblity of nifty touching 8511?
[11:10]   Ravi V P : nonevent
[11:10]   Amit J : failed auction
[11:11]   Shai : yes Amit
[11:11]   Shai : (11:09) r m:which means that he may cut if next CPI data is also low
[11:12]   Shai : Market waiting for Rajan to speak
[11:13]   Shai : Can move during his speech
[11:14]   Shai : First Q to Rajan : what did AJ tell you and what did you tell him ? 🙂
[11:16]   Amit J : this comment is better than rate cut for mkt.
[11:17]   Amit J : further psitive comment for psus
[11:18]   Amit J : any psu bank u like shai?
[11:21]   Shai : Keep that NF long on radar
[11:21]   Shai : sl will be 8560 tgt 8732
[11:22]   Shai : ths 1 – (10:32) Shai :a bullish view – if 8560 F holds now and we enter abv 8605 then we can see 8732 F by tom or thurs
[11:27]   Porus : Shai, in bnf, wait for H2?
[11:28]   Shai : can take h2 on that level of 672
[11:28]   Porus : ok
[11:28]   Shai : if we stay abv 610 today then BNF is back to bullish and likely to do 772 again
[11:34]   Shai : 18610 holding on that test
[11:36]   Amit J : view is very very dollish. mkt will respect it
[11:48]   Amit J : any view on ubl
[11:51]   Assortz : break of IB low of BNF – any chance to meet 18250 friday buyers?
[11:54]   r m : FAs galore in NF!
[11:59]   Shai : IB low break will give 18404 again
[12:03]   Shai : UBL moving into res at 792
[12:03]   Shai : possible dip to 772 if held can bring back 792/ 810 again
[12:07]   Mandar : Shai, below 8560– : possiblity of nifty touching 8511?
[12:09]   Shai : weak below 8575 invites 8540 and below 8540 we go to 8511 with sl of 8560
[12:09]   Mandar : thanks Shai.
[12:09]   Shai : wc
[12:10]   Shai : will avoid 8575- 8604 zone – upsde trigger abv 8605
[12:10]   Mandar : ok
[12:15]   Shai : NF/ BNF noisy now
[12:16]   Shai : 1 hour into RBI
[12:16]   Shai : positive is that we haven’t fallen from open price
[12:37]   Janak : shai is OTF a seller for a week’s timeframe?
[12:38]   Janak : like 770 to 250 zone belongs to him till 250 is reached?
[12:40]   Janak : rm did u slap gohar khan? ;;
[12:43]   r m : who is gohar khan? I recognize only Salman Khan 🙂
[12:44]   Ravi V P : might be aka ex rbi
[12:44]   r m : @Ravi ? gohar khan ex rbi? 😀
[12:45]   Janak : http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/hindi/tv/Gauahar-Khan-slapped-Reactions-on-Twitter/photostory/45335996.cms
[12:46]   Ravi V P : rcap
[12:46]   r m : i came across the news Janak, but did not have the faintest idea about who gohar khan was 🙂
[12:46]   Janak : an aspiring d or e or z grade model ;;
[12:46]   r m : Like Mamta di did not know about Amit Shah 🙂
[12:46]   Janak : mamt doesn’t know herself man
[12:46]   r m : ok, so now she has been upgraded from z to y 🙂
[12:47]   Ravi V P : airtel ril rcap
[12:54]   Janak : sell bn here?
[12:58]   Shai : No see the green
[13:00]   Shai : http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=32649
[13:00]   Shai : next excitement dose reserved for feb 3
[13:01]   Shai : 8588 and 18630 should have some stops of some bears
[13:06]   Amit J : thanks for upl
[13:06]   Amit J : ubl sorry
[13:09]   Ravi V P : 8000-8500PE writing and 8600-8800CE writing happening
[13:10]   Shai : welcome Amit
[13:11]   Janak : (11:28) Shai :if we stay abv 610 today then BNF is back to bullish and likely to do 772 again
[13:12]   Janak : go long with vwap as stop shai?
[13:12]   Janak : tgt 772
[13:16]   Shai : No- not yet
[13:16]   Shai : let is stay abv 630 for some time
[13:16]   Shai : short covering here – (13:01) Shai :8588 and 18630 should have some stops of some bears
[13:34]   Assortz : NF below IB low
[13:35]   Assortz : 8560 acts liks vacuum cleaner for the bears:)
[13:35]   Rahul N : @shai whats the levels for syndicate bank on the upside?
[13:35]   Rahul N : and axis bank
[13:35]   Shai : cash ?
[13:36]   Rahul N : yes
[13:41]   Shai : chart loading – 1/2 a min
[13:41]   Shai : Amit what’s up with UBL?
[13:41]   Rahul N : ok
[13:41]   Shai : now 821
[13:46]   Shai : Rahul still waiting on data to come. please bear
[13:46]   Shai : Looks like esignal having lunch 🙂
[13:47]   Rahul N : no problem
[13:47]   Rahul N : lol
[13:49]   Amit J : open offer possible
[13:49]   Amit J : i exited at shai level
[13:55]   Amit J : shai can u please check chart of frl
[13:57]   Shai : axis bank good abv 476 all week
[13:57]   Shai : abv 492.8 can rise to 504 by fri
[13:59]   Shai : dip to 473 are buys for tgts 513
[13:59]   Shai : 513 have to book profits
[14:00]   Shai : syndibank 136 is supply
[14:01]   Shai : if volumes spike abv 136 can rise to 143 and even see 165 abv 143 provided 133 holds once abv 143
[14:02]   Shai : Thanks Amit
[14:02]   Shai : Fri chart of ?
[14:04]   Shai : that vol came in UBL around 1 pm only
[14:05]   Rahul N : thanks shai
[14:05]   Shai : welcome
[14:05]   Shai : be back in 15 mins
[14:11]   Amit J : future retail
[14:24]   Janak : shai bn long tgt?
[14:29]   Amit J : all psus moved
[14:38]   Assortz : @Janak for positional, 772/934 is what Shai have said earlieer
[14:39]   Ravi V P : 13:01 Shai : 8588 and 18630 should have some stops of some bears
[14:43]   Shai : yes – only a cross over can bring shortcovering
[14:45]   Shai : Frl looking to move towards 94/ 98.4 in short term
[14:46]   Shai : 79.7 is a good sl from here
[14:46]   Shai : momentum comes abv 89
[14:46]   Amit J : thanks
[14:47]   Shai : UBL going to heineken?
[14:47]   Shai : mallya stake?
[14:48]   Amit J : thats rumor, open offer.
[14:48]   Shai : 880 is the offer
[14:48]   Shai : that vol was a block deal at 1 pm
[14:48]   Amit J : yes but i feel its rumor
[14:48]   Shai : ok
[14:48]   Amit J : yes it was a block deal
[14:49]   Shai : BNF leading up
[14:49]   Shai : this has to ne a neutral extreme day again
[14:49]   Shai : vwap sl now for a close at day highs
[14:50]   Mandar : shai, view on sun pharma pls.
[14:52]   Amit J : rbi policy was very good. mkt has to respect it.
[14:53]   Shai : sun phram 852- 832 consoildation break is 871.6 tgt
[14:53]   Shai : a close abv 846 should be good for that 871 in anticpation
[14:53]   Mandar : thanks Shai.
[14:53]   Shai : wc
[14:54]   Mandar : those are cash levels?
[14:55]   Shai : yes
[14:55]   Shai : cash
[14:55]   Mandar : ok
[14:55]   Shai : 18772 by close?
[15:02]   Shai : surprised to see 8600 pe offloading
[15:04]   Amit J : also calls IV coming down
[15:06]   Shai : yes
[15:06]   Shai : BN options down 30- 60 /- across the board
[15:08]   Shai : BN options : http://screencast.com/t/UsS9QrklHo7z
[15:09]   Shai : 18655 supp intra day in BNF
[15:09]   Shai : NF likely to close at vwap today but BNF could be in the higher end
[15:12]   Shai : 8540 FA today
[15:12]   Shai : and from the way we have auctioned this morning this FA may be visisted again within 5 days
[15:12]   Shai : s even if we climb higher today/ tom we are back here by next week
[15:13]   Assortz : same aplies to BNf 18404?
[15:14]   Assortz : *applies
[15:14]   Shai : BNF looks diff and if open is abv today’s range then likely more up
[15:14]   Shai : open tom*
[15:15]   r m : BNF did not look back, NF seems sniffing for that 8540 🙂
[15:15]   Amit J : call with governor ended. he is extremely positive
[15:15]   Shai : con call ?
[15:15]   Assortz : 🙂
[15:15]   Amit J : yes
[15:16]   Shai : cool 🙂
[15:16]   Shai : did anyone ask Rajan what AJ discussed wit him on rates? 🙂
[15:17]   Rahul N : @shai whats the level for state bank futures?
[15:17]   Amit J : his infaltion expectations seems lower than most analyst. so rate cut expectaion will be very high in next 2 mth
[15:17]   Shai : before feb meet?
[15:17]   Amit J : i am also AJ 🙂
[15:18]   r m : 🙂
[15:18]   Shai : 🙂
[15:18]   Amit J : yes he indicated that in statement that why i told in morning to buy. it was exactly when mkt was in panic
[15:19]   Amit J : good vol in FRL shai.
[15:19]   r m : @Shai, maybe AJ handed over the appointment letter to BRIC’s bank 😀
[15:19]   Shai : do dec 12 will be it or Jan 12 post inflation data?
[15:20]   Amit J : my view he is waiting for ministry to announce some reform, post which he would start
[15:20]   r m : ok
[15:22]   r m : @Shai, NF delta is plus since last 2 days, does that support buying CE’s 🙂
[15:23]   Shai : sbin looking good for 327.7 this week in dec F
[15:23]   Shai : dips to 311 are buys in sbin
[15:24]   Shai : below 309 can drop
[15:24]   Shai : all dec F levels
[15:24]   Shai : RM – no I suggest wait tll we cross abv 8595 at least
[15:24]   r m : Thanks
[15:25]   Shai : price is not confirming
[15:25]   Rahul N : tnx
[15:26]   Shai : wc
[15:26]   Shai : Yes FRL mon was a dip buyer at 81
[15:27]   Shai : BNF 18655 just holding
[15:27]   Shai : but close abv 610 still puts in in line for 772 tom
[15:28]   Shai : NF close at vwap
[15:28]   Shai : BNF is a neutral extreme
[15:28]   Shai : NF neutral center
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice evening
[15:30]   Chiranthan : bye
[15:30]   Shai : see you all tom
[15:30]   Porus : Bye all