OrderFlow charts and Notes 16/10/14

[08:47]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:47]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-16th-oct/
[08:47]   r m : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-1410/
[08:48]   Porus : GM
[08:50]   r m : Results today – TCS
[08:51]   Sharad : GM all
[08:57]   r m : Bad data caused US markets to go into a swoon yesterday!
[09:03]   Shai : GM all
[09:08]   r m : looks like NF gets back to 7870 at open
[09:11]   Shai : 7868 is our ref line per hypos
[09:16]   Amit J : Gm
[09:17]   Shai : sgx printed 7950 and 7845 I think after we closed
[09:17]   Shai : That profile of tuesday was a 3-1-3
[09:17]   Shai : which means that range has to break for a move
[09:18]   Amit J : 80% in both?
[09:18]   Shai : NF into value area trade
[09:18]   Shai : BNf too
[09:19]   Shai : no sellers per delta at open
[09:19]   r m : for BNF Hypo 2 also suggests 870 above 75
[09:19]   r m : 750
[09:21]   Kathir : GM SHAI RM AND ALL
[09:21]   Sharad : Shai INR res 61.78 61.80
[09:22]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:22]   Sharad : want to sell INR
[09:27]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:32]   r m : BNF gets target 1 of hypo2
[09:47]   Shai : test
[09:50]   Shai : 61.74 was the tgt level in usdinr
[09:51]   Sharad : ok so can sell with stop ?
[09:51]   Shai : one dip to maybe 61.58 to test and then back up to 61.94
[09:51]   Sharad : ok thanks
[09:52]   Shai : below 61.50 it goes down to 61.20 again
[09:52]   Shai : NF and BNF both down with the 80%
[09:53]   Shai : There were some stats given by RM which said 80% works best and with amazing predictability if happens before 11.00 am
[09:56]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/n3sveo7
[09:57]   Sumit : vwap holding well
[09:57]   r m : that was done in first quarter of 2014
[09:58]   Sumit : good summary. thanks rm
[09:59]   Shai : Very good 1 RM
[09:59]   r m : Thanks!
[09:59]   Shai : It was amongst the first I saw with a time wise breakup
[09:59]   Sumit : nf obliging you again
[09:59]   Shai : and the 11.15 am hit was the most interesting
[10:03]   Kathir : @RM thnaks
[10:04]   r m : Welcome 🙂
[10:04]   r m : I have 20/20 hindsight 🙂
[10:06]   r m : NF quick on 80% both ways!
[10:26]   Shai : 2 way auction underway in NF
[10:26]   Shai : seller at 7896
[10:26]   Shai : same trade as tuesday
[10:27]   Shai : 7894 also a prominent poc and the sller is holdng there now
[10:29]   Shai : in the hypos we puts high probability trade below 7868 and above 7918 F
[10:29]   Shai : very 2 way beltween 7868- 7918 with 7894 as pivot line
[10:30]   Shai : since doing 7919 NF came to 7870
[10:30]   r m : BNF got support at 750 from hypo2 on it’s way back
[10:30]   Shai : delta is neg which means sellers more aggressive
[10:30]   Shai : but marginally neg
[10:31]   Shai : big moves happen when that delta fig is minus plus beyong 150- 200
[10:42]   Amit J : NF delta positive
[11:08]   Sharad : Shai Rocks… Inr 61.64
[11:08]   r m : 🙂
[11:09]   Sharad : now a days it is easy to trade intraday in INR
[11:09]   Sharad : then NF or BNF
[11:09]   Sharad : both very volatile
[11:09]   r m : yes
[11:10]   Manik : @ SHAI intraday levels for icici bank please
[11:12]   Shai : icici bank cash 1482 no trade
[11:12]   Sharad : NF for last one hout not trying to touch vwap also very lazy
[11:12]   Shai : possibility of 1493 is tere but keep tight sl at day low
[11:13]   Manik : ok thanks
[11:14]   Shai : NF looking upwards
[11:15]   Shai : NF buy abv 7887 with sl of 7867 for 7918
[11:30]   Clay : When does the pre-Diwali rally start normally every year,not saying that it will this year?
[11:36]   Shai : 3- 4 sesions before
[11:36]   Shai : I think tom or late afternoon today will be right
[11:36]   Sharad : delta increasing slowly in NF
[11:36]   Shai : Refer Monday’s dicussions we mentioned this point then
[11:39]   Shai : 8041 abv 7930 and 16158 tgt remains for the diwali rally
[11:40]   Clay : ok thanks
[11:40]   Shai : spx will be watched for a move abv 1865
[11:41]   Chiranthan : enter now or wait for som time in nf?
[11:41]   Sharad : spike to 7888 and came back
[11:43]   Sharad : Shai Apollo Tyre can short around 218-220 ?
[12:01]   Shai : yes apollo below 220 will tgt 209/206
[12:01]   Sharad : ok thanks
[12:02]   Shai : Chiranthan better always abv vwap for price to confirm buyer presence
[12:02]   Chiranthan : bought at 7889
[12:02]   Shai : ok
[12:02]   Shai : can add abv 7930
[12:02]   Chiranthan : ok
[12:03]   Chiranthan : sl hit
[12:06]   Sharad : could not go above vwap so SL hit drive came..
[12:06]   Sharad : covered @ 61.59 … Thanks Shai
[12:11]   Shai : yes that just teased our buy abv point and came down
[12:12]   Shai : dax F rising
[12:12]   Shai : orderflow at highs again
[12:13]   Shai : will try that long trade again abv 7894 but this time with sl of 10 points only
[12:15]   Shai : down to -169
[12:16]   Shai : So today if we are 200 + on delta at the close then we have confirmation that shorts are out of the system
[12:17]   Shai : 90 now + 160 = 250 actually
[12:18]   Amit J : BN spot at 15800
[12:19]   Shai : BNF is now -900 but most of that sellling is the first 3 columns abv 15860 : -299, -224, -306
[12:19]   Shai : there are no new shorts opened below
[12:21]   Amit J : what was the vwap of those 3 days
[12:22]   Shai : good question- let me check
[12:24]   Manik : @rm looking for the sellers @ 7888?
[12:26]   r m : no one is pushing hard on the peddle, maybe waiting for Europe open?
[12:27]   Manik : ok
[12:30]   Shai : 15873- http://screencast.com/t/XbPiX4Gv
[12:31]   Shai : 15899 was the high of tuesday and 15880 today
[12:31]   Shai : so short covering only abv that line now
[12:33]   Sharad : Europe open but not great positive
[12:33]   r m : ok
[12:34]   r m : it dropped in a deep well yesterday!
[12:34]   Sharad : yes but not bouncing back
[12:34]   Porus : Sharad, what do you use to cover foreigh market prices, without lag?
[12:35]   Sharad : i use falcon
[12:36]   Porus : ok thanks
[12:36]   Sharad : welcome
[12:36]   Shai : Porus there are several browser based ones
[12:36]   Shai : use- http://www.fxempire.com/charts/live-indices-charts/
[12:37]   Porus : thsnks
[12:37]   Shai : even ramonte- http://ramonte.com/browser
[12:38]   Sharad : i basically want super trend indicater… for that i am using it
[12:39]   Sharad : NF delta 130
[12:41]   Shai : buyers wanting to defend vwap
[12:42]   Shai : 7896 is the major seller at 208 now
[12:43]   Shai : 7908 is at 83
[12:45]   Shai : Most foreign markets have done a V
[12:45]   Shai : we were not open to do a V so flat lined 🙂
[12:46]   Shai : shorts would have missed a opportunity to offload at 7750- 60 yesterday
[12:46]   r m : Now our positional traders will have to keep hedged using SGX nifty 🙂
[12:47]   Shai : they already are
[12:47]   r m : ok
[12:48]   Shai : sgx is 320000 contracts now
[12:48]   Shai : was 180000- 220000 most of last year
[12:48]   Shai : up 50%
[12:50]   r m : only 318500 contracts in NF all series as of yesterday!
[12:50]   Porus : so does sgx nifty follow nse or vv?
[12:50]   r m : SGX is like Bhim’s son Ghatokach 😀
[12:50]   Manik : LOL
[12:50]   Sharad : SGX one lot = how much our NF
[12:52]   Shai : yes lot sizes are diff
[12:52]   Shai : was 10 some time back – not sure how much now
[12:53]   Shai : plus margins in USD were very large
[12:53]   Sharad : 10 means ?
[12:53]   Sharad : like we have 1 lot = 50 NF
[12:53]   Shai : 10 units against our 50
[12:54]   Sharad : so 500 NF right?
[12:54]   Shai : we will become btw
[12:54]   r m : they have 2USD per point
[12:54]   r m : so it is approx twice our lot size
[12:54]   Sharad : so our is 50 and sgx is 100 nifty per lot
[12:54]   Shai : ok
[12:55]   r m : roughly yes
[12:55]   Shai : NO 1 point is 50 bucks here and 2 USD there
[12:55]   r m : yes, it will be 100 if USD was at 50
[12:56]   r m : there settlement is as per our close at 3:30, sgx time 6pm
[12:56]   Sharad : so not big volume them 3,20,000 contract means only 32 lac open interest
[12:56]   r m : so howsoever they may jump, at bed time they come to same level
[12:58]   Shai : you are right Sharad- point was on contracts oustanding
[13:00]   Sharad : so they can not control our price as they are 1/5 of our open interest… we are at 1.5 crore nifty
[13:00]   Shai : true
[13:01]   r m : they can only influence, overall control in price is by underlying scrips
[13:01]   Shai : but ovre the years it has become a very reliable indicator for opens
[13:02]   Shai : Have seen price come closest to the sgx price at opens rather than the pre openings
[13:03]   Shai : dax starting to drop- http://screencast.com/t/SQxCNQrNcg
[13:04]   Shai : 7800 P and 7900 ce controlling- http://screencast.com/t/jkZkuKnX
[13:07]   Shai : back to 7870
[13:08]   Shai : here we have 763 buyers against 494+270 sellers
[13:08]   Shai : I’m looking at the extreme right of the FP chart which is cumulative vol at price
[13:09]   r m : @Shai, is it possible to plot a culumlative delta line along with delta bars in tick chart? scale is not important, it will give an easy view of agressive buyers actions in time terms too
[13:09]   Shai : in the tick chart or 10 min chart?
[13:09]   r m : tick chart top pane
[13:10]   r m : as we used to have some time back
[13:10]   Shai : possible will do it after clse
[13:10]   r m : Thanks
[13:10]   Shai : good idea . would be my pleasure 🙂
[13:10]   r m : 🙂
[13:11]   r m : if that is in sync with pink/green it will be easy to keep in the trade
[13:12]   Shai : ok
[13:13]   Shai : 10 min bar is huge red
[13:13]   Shai : delta gone back to 0
[13:21]   Manik : @ RM i hate vwap band when mkt starts to move 🙂
[13:22]   r m : 🙂
[13:22]   r m : you can always vote to have it removed 😀
[13:22]   Manik : lol
[13:23]   r m : there was good buying at recent lows in both NF and BNF
[13:24]   Sharad : that was 1.33 luyerac nifty b
[13:24]   Sharad : lac
[13:24]   r m : ok
[13:26]   Amit J : can be a FA
[13:28]   r m : bnf will have to handhold and literally drag the elder sister to make it a FA 🙂
[13:37]   r m : NF reaches first target of hypo1 7845
[13:43]   Shai : nig buyers below 7840
[13:44]   Shai : called to protect the NF now
[13:45]   Shai : *big
[13:47]   Amit J : shai just to understand – if nifty reach days high now than it will not be failed acution right as it is well acutioned now
[13:48]   r m : if it spends more than 30 minutes below IBL then no FA (no single prints) – technical explanation 🙂
[13:51]   Amit J : in current case whats your view
[13:51]   r m : it has spent more than 30 minutes
[13:51]   r m : there should be double prints below 7855 in MP chart
[13:52]   r m : L and M letter appearing there
[13:52]   Shai : text book definition will not be an FA
[13:53]   r m : but FA or No FA, if it goes above IBH, these single prints will be very important below 7850?
[13:53]   Shai : this does not show a lot of buyers at 7841 acc to FP
[13:53]   Shai : so one more visit down
[13:53]   r m : ok
[13:54]   Shai : Amit – 60 mins would be the balance of the day and sellers tried to probe below 60 min IB balance but failed and it was sent up again- then that would be an FA
[13:55]   Shai : how do we put a benchmark? By defining failure as inability to tay down for more than 30 mins and also a trip to the prevalent day high
[13:55]   r m : BNF delta good in last 2 ten minute bars
[13:55]   Shai : *stay
[13:56]   Amit J : thanks
[13:56]   r m : BNF is auctioning in the DMZ between two hypos 🙂
[13:57]   r m : back in value now
[13:57]   Shai : BNF has to move abv 15750 quickly to avoid the 15630 scenario
[14:01]   Shai : delta in NF at day low
[14:02]   Shai : buyers MIA
[14:04]   r m : DMZ and now MIA, it is a full fledged war in stock markets 😀
[14:05]   Shai : lol
[14:07]   Sharad : what is DMZ and MIA
[14:09]   r m : De-militarized zone and Missing in action 🙂
[14:09]   Manik : 🙂
[14:10]   Sharad : ok
[14:12]   Shai : the first thing the bull has to do is place usinr under 6150
[14:12]   Shai : everything else will follow
[14:12]   Shai : *usdinr
[14:13]   Sharad : but Shai first visit to 61.98 is pending
[14:13]   Shai : yes
[14:13]   Shai : 61.94
[14:13]   Sharad : ok good
[14:14]   Shai : Not muck conviction in this NF jump
[14:14]   Shai : 7868 still a ref
[14:15]   Shai : lloks like traders are looking at ES and making trades here
[14:16]   Sharad : Shai today is Expiry day in ES … so may be it bottom out today then we rally from tomorrow
[14:17]   Sharad : till then 61.94 visit can also complete
[14:18]   Shai : expiration is always friday there
[14:18]   Sharad : i think it is 3rd Thursday of every month and that too on opening price
[14:19]   Sharad : RM can you check Pl.
[14:19]   r m : sure
[14:20]   r m : but tomorrow is Friday na!
[14:21]   r m : tomorrow is expiry
[14:21]   Sharad : today is Thursday so expiry there today sorry
[14:21]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/kwzef3k
[14:21]   r m : this one is for option expiry
[14:22]   Sharad : ok then it is Friday Opening price is expiry
[14:23]   Shai : http://www.barchart.com/futures/expirations.php
[14:23]   r m : Thanks Shai
[14:23]   Shai : expiration price is fri close
[14:23]   r m : even poor man’s ES at NSE has expiration set for 17th OCT 🙂
[14:31]   Shai : back to 7844
[14:31]   Shai : ref- (14:14) Shai :Not much conviction in this NF jump
[14:32]   Shai : 7817 can come here
[14:32]   Chiranthan : short nf?
[14:32]   Shai : sl is deep
[14:33]   Shai : I’ll update
[14:36]   Shai : Sell NF below 7838 with sl of 7855 tgt 7817
[14:36]   Shai : trade 50% qty only
[14:37]   Sharad : INr @ new high 61.82
[14:40]   Shai : es slid down from 1857 to 1842
[14:40]   Shai : fear still at day highs of 15.77
[14:42]   r m : algo near 650
[14:47]   Shai : Not many buyers in that algo
[14:47]   Shai : still sellers
[14:47]   r m : ok, thanks
[14:48]   Manik : @ rm BNf delta not in sync with NF
[14:48]   Shai : plus at 16640 + 3sd band
[14:48]   Shai : *15640
[14:50]   r m : Yes Manik, first target of hypo 1 was 15622, it has come very close
[14:51]   Manik : waht would be the chances of gap down tomorrow ?
[14:51]   r m : 3sd band in bnf looks almost like a gold chain!
[14:52]   Shai : Mnaik can’t say yet
[14:52]   Shai : *Manik
[14:52]   Manik : ok shai
[14:53]   Shai : That always depends on what happens after 3.10
[14:53]   Shai : if it shows more shorts coming in then we may go down
[14:53]   Sharad : 61.89
[14:54]   Shai : we will cover shorts if we come closer to 7820 again
[14:55]   r m : 7820 cometh!
[14:55]   Sharad : 7820.15 low
[14:56]   Shai : yeaah better to bag it
[14:56]   Shai : shorts are not closing per delta
[14:57]   Shai : at day low of -256
[14:57]   r m : 15625
[14:58]   Shai : NF shorts are still holding
[15:00]   Sharad : 61.92
[15:01]   Shai : 61.57 low was also on dot 🙂
[15:01]   Shai : 7806 still sellers
[15:01]   Sharad : yeah sold 50%
[15:01]   Sharad : @ 61.92
[15:01]   Sharad : 61.94 now
[15:02]   Shai : (09:51) Shai :one dip to maybe 61.58 to test and then back up to 61.94
[15:02]   Narendra : now what?
[15:02]   r m : 🙂
[15:02]   Sharad : noe rest
[15:02]   Sharad : now rest
[15:03]   Shai : back down to 61.74
[15:03]   Sharad : i will take rest now shai enough for the day
[15:03]   Shai : 🙂
[15:04]   r m : This is where RBI Governor shoud come to get advise for stabilising currency 🙂
[15:04]   r m : 🙂
[15:04]   Sharad : aplollo 206
[15:04]   Sharad : on dot
[15:04]   Shai : There is a false tcik in usdinr at 63 something today
[15:04]   Sharad : nooo
[15:04]   Shai : hope the bulls don’t give Rajan sleepless nights
[15:04]   Sharad : 61.96
[15:04]   r m : not on CDS
[15:04]   Shai : ok
[15:04]   r m : that must be on MCX
[15:05]   Shai : It was on my esignal but got cleared as was 0 vol
[15:05]   r m : ok
[15:05]   Chiranthan : any nifty ce to buy now?
[15:05]   Shai : BNf bull holding 620
[15:05]   Sharad : 61.96 sold all
[15:06]   Shai : Not yet chiranthan
[15:06]   Shai : hypo1 is still open
[15:06]   r m : deep down to 7761!
[15:08]   r m : that spot virgin weekly poc at 7741 approacheth – http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/nsemo141014.png
[15:09]   Shai : finally minor buyers
[15:13]   Sharad : 62.01
[15:13]   Shai : this short is not covering yet
[15:13]   Shai : 7768
[15:14]   r m : bnf has joined too
[15:14]   Manik : @rm still not happy with BNF
[15:14]   Sharad : 62.04
[15:15]   r m : @Manik, you want minimum 100 poits below 630? 🙂
[15:15]   Shai : 16.60 vix
[15:15]   Sharad : Dax -200
[15:15]   Manik : @ you understand me better
[15:15]   r m : lol
[15:16]   Shai : 1821 spx
[15:16]   Manik : @ shai can we take shorts for tomorrow?
[15:17]   Shai : 7705 F tgt
[15:17]   Shai : but bounce can also come to 7820
[15:17]   r m : @Manik, happy now with BNF? 🙂
[15:17]   Sharad : 62.08
[15:17]   Manik : @ rm absolutely
[15:18]   r m : wonderful
[15:18]   r m : below 520 floodgates open for 15340 🙂
[15:19]   Shai : can’t think of new shorts here
[15:19]   Shai : but existing shorts holding
[15:19]   Shai : -244 against day high of 299
[15:19]   Manik : @ rm 1 kg of SKS brand mysurpa
[15:20]   r m : bnf sd3 band is running behind
[15:20]   r m : @Manik, what is that?
[15:20]   r m : aha, mysur paak 🙂
[15:20]   Manik : very famous brand of sweet
[15:21]   r m : Thank you!
[15:21]   r m : This way every time you score 100 points I’ll gain 1Kg 🙂
[15:22]   Sumit : rm, thats our khurchan 🙂
[15:22]   Manik : sure
[15:22]   r m : lol
[15:27]   Shai : some shorts closed in NF
[15:27]   Shai : chances of a gap down are less
[15:27]   Shai : but rise to 7820 is now res
[15:27]   Shai : rise to 7820 may be sold
[15:27]   Shai : 7820 F res
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Sumit : good bye everyone
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Clay : bye
[15:33]   Manik : bye all
[15:34]   Amit J : can you give your positional view on nifty.
[15:36]   Sharad : Bye all