OrderFlow charts and Notes 25/09/14

[09:01]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:01]   Porus : GM
[09:02]   Sharad : GM
[09:04]   Shai : GM all
[09:04]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-25th-sept/
[09:05]   Shai : Today is expiry and volumes in sept and oct would match in terms of orderflow
[09:06]   Shai : So I would be paying more attention to the second screen which has the 2 orderflows of sept oct
[09:06]   Shai : the FP chart is only sept and may not give us the full picture for today
[09:07]   Shai : Yesterday’s charts- http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-240914/
[09:08]   Chiranthan : hypo 2 for NF , If we fall below 8015 then NF can again drop to 7985 , 7956?
[09:10]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:12]   Shai : yes hypo 2 is right
[09:18]   Shai : Yesterday’s charts showed delta as negative – hence there was no case to carry overnight longs
[09:19]   Shai : If you see that number as positive then you can carry longs or shorts if negative
[09:20]   Kathir : Good morning Shai RM and all friends
[09:20]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:22]   Sumit : hi Kathir
[09:22]   Kathir : @shai for hypo 1 nf what is the SL
[09:22]   Shai : take it below 8005 with sl of 8023
[09:22]   Kathir : hypo 2
[09:22]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:23]   Shai : 7985 tgt though 7956 may be difficult to come by
[09:24]   Shai : Buyers gain control if we cross over 8028 today though I would prefer 8037 cross
[09:25]   r m : BN proceeding nicely below 15740 hypo 2
[09:40]   Kathir : @RM any info about FII data yest?
[09:42]   r m : They are loading up on both sides as common during rollovers but bias is short so far
[09:43]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:44]   r m : thru sep FII net long index future OI is 12925 contracts and net short contracts are 111296!
[09:45]   Kathir : oh
[09:45]   r m : they have been busy booking longs in this series
[09:45]   Kathir : ok
[09:51]   Shai : path of least resistance seems to be downwards today
[09:52]   Shai : No buyers seen yet in sept or oct
[09:53]   Kathir : @shai nf below 7950 is possible today?
[09:54]   Shai : looks difficult
[09:54]   Kathir : ok
[09:54]   Shai : expiry market is always about taking what you get
[09:55]   Shai : don’t leave profits on the table for the market
[09:55]   Kathir : 🙂 ok
[09:55]   Kathir : last setlmnt nf close 7950?
[09:56]   r m : approx
[09:56]   r m : 7954 i think
[09:57]   Amit J : carnage in midcaps
[09:58]   Kathir : yeah nf fit setlmnt price 7,954.35
[09:58]   r m : Yeah, Mars Orbiter up the and Mc Osc going below 🙂
[09:59]   Kathir : july close 7721
[10:01]   r m : Hypo 2 done by bnf
[10:01]   Kathir : bnf below pdl
[10:02]   Shai : 7988 seeing some buying
[10:03]   Shai : close part hypo 1 shorts if taken
[10:03]   Kathir : delta was -60 and now +7
[10:04]   Shai : yes – perfect – that is what you have to see
[10:06]   Shai : BNF is still weak
[10:07]   Shai : yesterday BNF rose on a poor delta to 15820
[10:07]   Shai : it’s typical of orderflow to repair auctions
[10:07]   Shai : now back to previous lows again
[10:08]   Kathir : 80 now but price not moving up how to take this
[10:08]   Kathir : Shai
[10:09]   Shai : don’t read too much in that data today
[10:09]   Amit J : looks like short roll. big buying in current and selling in oct
[10:09]   Kathir : ok setlmnt date rollovers will confuse everything and everybody
[10:09]   Shai : (09:06) Shai :the FP chart is only sept and may not give us the full picture for today
[10:12]   Shai : first time since FEB we will not get a +200 nifty- (09:55) Kathir :last setlmnt nf close 7950?
[10:15]   Porus : lot of buying at 7992-4. So is a support building there?
[10:15]   r m : big bro got almost 200 points though, they covered most of the longs above 8100
[10:17]   Shai : Porus – if it’s buying we get confirmation only abv vwap/ val
[10:17]   Porus : ok
[10:17]   Shai : what we understand now – is that it can be short covering too
[10:17]   Shai : If it’s a buyer he will take it abv val/ vwap
[10:18]   Shai : intra sellers will use vwap to sell again
[10:19]   Shai : BNF reached pdl and no covering of shorts seen
[10:19]   r m : BNF marching to pre-rajan target!
[10:22]   Kathir : @rm to inform everything unchanged we need a goveernor
[10:26]   r m : he declared thru press the other day that he is not going to change rates on a few instances of WPI reduction, guess he wants a government guarantee of low CPI 😀
[10:27]   Kathir : bnf non stop
[10:28]   Kathir : @shai any downside suppot in bnf now
[10:29]   Shai : 15520- 15580 strong supp in spot
[10:30]   r m : @Shai, below that straight drop t 14850-15000 zone?
[10:30]   Shai : yes
[10:30]   r m : Thanks
[10:31]   Shai : oct F in NF and BNF is all about shorts this morning
[10:31]   Shai : try to track that OF today as it is longer duration
[10:33]   r m : bnf sep series thru aug-sep http://screencast.com/t/sfxWGAHmTC
[10:51]   Shai : BNf is real trouble
[10:51]   Shai : charts moving?
[10:51]   Narendra : not moving
[10:52]   r m : frozen
[11:00]   Shai : charts back
[11:01]   Shai : I’v e added OCT FP charts on second screen
[11:01]   Shai : Oct is heavy in the red as of now
[11:01]   Shai : and day is trending down
[11:03]   r m : charts still in lazy mode of motion 🙂
[11:03]   Kathir : 🙂
[11:04]   Shai : moving?
[11:04]   Shai : will catch up
[11:05]   r m : yes, maybe my bandwidth issue
[11:06]   Shai : some heavy tick flow came through in BN
[11:09]   Shai : BNF leading the downside
[11:09]   Shai : is extended
[11:09]   Shai : broken below 15520 spot supp
[11:11]   Amit J : now your view shai in banknifty
[11:11]   Shai : wiating to see if there is a bounce
[11:11]   Shai : 15467 sept F intra supp
[11:12]   Shai : can’t make out if this is only an expiry move or something bigger
[11:12]   Shai : OrderFlow firmly sell side and we may close at lower end
[11:13]   r m : good volumes, vwap sd3 band keeping out of reach of BNF!
[11:14]   Narendra : nifty at yesterdays low
[11:15]   Amit J : my sources saying only expiry move
[11:15]   Amit J : just looking on what level to buy for oct expiry
[11:15]   r m : ok, thanks
[11:16]   Narendra : where is vix today
[11:16]   Kathir : 12.7
[11:16]   Narendra : ok thanks
[11:21]   Shai : Could be Amit- expiry can do weird things
[11:29]   Kathir : @SHAI any views for todays close from here NF BNF both
[11:34]   Shai : 8000 pe writers are under pressure and the more likely scenario would be that they will now use a rise to cover positions
[11:34]   Shai : so in keeping with that we may close at lows
[11:39]   Kathir : ok thanks
[11:39]   Shai : 8000 ce has added 40 L today
[11:39]   Shai : That’s another problem now
[11:39]   Shai : if we climb above 8010 then straight 8050
[11:39]   Kathir : ok
[11:40]   r m : nobody told infy that today is expiry day 🙂
[11:40]   Kathir : lol
[11:41]   Porus : or TCS for that matter !
[11:41]   r m : yeah, cnxit is 1% up
[11:42]   Kathir : tcs 2% up
[11:42]   Kathir : IT is holding nifty
[11:43]   Kathir : @shai views on wipro intra long
[11:47]   Shai : wipro res at 595 cash
[11:47]   Shai : not a gpood place for a position actually
[11:47]   Shai : 582 support below
[11:48]   Kathir : ok thanks
[11:49]   Shai : This bounce in NF sept off 7956 is much better thanh the one yesterday
[11:50]   Shai : but OCT is still short
[11:52]   Shai : Buy 7900 pe and 8000 ce – net total is 16
[11:52]   Shai : as an expiry lottery with no sl
[11:53]   Shai : if we break below 7944 we may go to 7920 today which would double that option
[11:53]   Shai : and above 8010 we go to 8040 which will again double the play
[11:54]   Chiranthan : The total is 10.5 now
[11:54]   Narendra : its 7950?
[11:55]   r m : yes
[11:55]   Shai : sorry 7950 PE
[11:55]   Shai : 7950 pe and 8000 ce – net of 16
[11:56]   Shai : it trade remains under 8010- 7956 we lose everything
[11:57]   Shai : BNF is in a diff mode today so chances of not staying in this range are very good
[11:58]   Kathir : any levels for bnf
[12:20]   Kathir : DPOC shifted down in both
[12:23]   Shai : BNF sept 15469 supp
[12:31]   Shai : Buy a 15400 Pe sept at 13- 16 if 15470 breaks
[12:31]   Shai : can go tro 80
[12:33]   Kathir : ok thanks
[12:38]   Shai : yesterday BNF at close- http://screencast.com/t/2u0vT4fx
[12:38]   Shai : Today it is still neg
[12:38]   Shai : and even oct is still neg
[12:38]   Shai : so it tells us that shorts are still holding and not covering
[12:39]   Kathir : @shai if they in the eve then what would be the upside level bnf can reach
[12:40]   Shai : 15580 / 15760-15800
[12:40]   Kathir : ok
[12:40]   Shai : 15760/800 spot will be the big level to watch now into RBI day
[12:41]   Shai : It’s news based selling based on the fear of defaults
[12:42]   Kathir : you mean todays selling
[12:42]   Shai : from yesterday
[12:42]   Kathir : ok..so problem is the defualters
[12:43]   Shai : yes that the companies will not pay back the loans owed to banks vcreating an NPA issue
[12:43]   Shai : 7955
[12:43]   r m : oct 15500PE/CE valued at approx 600 Rs, so that is the range currently expected?
[12:45]   Anay : no new sellers below 7960?
[12:46]   Shai : no seller yet
[12:46]   Anay : ok
[12:46]   Shai : RM that’s 1 way of looking at it
[12:47]   Shai : 41 lakhs in oct against 65 L in sept
[12:47]   Shai : in NF
[12:47]   Shai : That Oct F will become more important in afternoon
[12:48]   Shai : cumulative orderflow is negative in Oct – so bottom may not be forming
[12:52]   Porus : sep delta at +500. What does this mean?
[12:54]   Amit J : hi shai what are your long term supports for next 2 mths
[12:57]   Shai : Porus shorts covered ins ept F
[12:58]   Shai : Amit I see 7900- 8300 as a range with a 50 point deviation
[12:59]   Shai : If 7900 holds through Oct on spot we finsih at 8550 by dec end of first 15 days of Jan
[12:59]   Amit J : thanks.
[12:59]   Chiranthan : Any sector which could lead this rally if it happens
[13:00]   Shai : OTOH if 7900 breaks then we slip to 7550
[13:01]   Shai : Chiranthan the feature of this rally has been that it has been extremely stock specific except the fist few days of June
[13:01]   Shai : so good stocks will still go up
[13:02]   Shai : One part of a sector which did extremely well was auto anc
[13:02]   Shai : it’s more to do with where value is than a particular sector
[13:02]   Chiranthan : ok
[13:03]   Shai : BN shorts holding but NF shows cobering
[13:03]   Shai : *covering
[13:03]   Porus : double bottom at 7955-57 has significance?
[13:04]   Amit J : power infra and manufacturing
[13:04]   Shai : that level of 7955 has been significant for us
[13:04]   Shai : It it breaks over 2-3 sessions then entire move abv 7900 is in trouble
[13:23]   Kathir : usd/inr above 61.10
[13:33]   Shai : 15400 oe active’
[13:33]   r m : yes
[13:34]   Shai : pe*
[13:34]   r m : 🙂
[13:34]   Kathir : @shai bnf trgt
[13:35]   Shai : 15331 spot
[13:35]   Shai : 7920 spot nifty
[13:40]   Porus : @shai, nf bounced off 7952. Is there strenght in this bounce?
[13:42]   Shai : a litlle- but higher levels to 7985 are used to short more or liquidate longs
[13:42]   Shai : Trade is now with options writers
[13:42]   Kathir : shai any SL for this 15400 pe
[13:42]   Shai : The futures are a side show now
[13:43]   Shai : Kathir let;s manage with sl of 15525
[13:43]   Kathir : ok
[13:45]   Porus : You mean that futures and options won’t be in sync? Or option movement will precede that of futures?
[13:52]   Shai : only for expiry
[13:52]   Shai : expiry day movement is mostly controlled by the writers
[13:53]   Shai : part of the reason BN is so down is that 16000 pe was built huge and liquidated now
[13:53]   Shai : that 16000 pe was 21 on monday
[13:53]   Anay : whoa
[13:59]   Porus : @shai, Can we know the option positions built up today for Oct?
[14:02]   Shai : yes
[14:02]   r m : buyer coming back in BNF
[14:03]   Shai : That will give you FII poistions inclusing fut and options both long and written
[14:03]   Anay : that link doesn’t open 🙁
[14:04]   Shai : just a min- will rectify
[14:04]   r m : http://tinyurl.com/OIAnalysis
[14:05]   Shai : Thanks RM
[14:05]   Anay : thanks rm
[14:05]   r m : welcome
[14:06]   Shai : RM manages all those charts- don’t know how , but he does them everyday in sickness and in good health !
[14:06]   r m : I am always in good health 🙂
[14:06]   Shai : Praise God!- Today and always
[14:06]   r m : 🙂
[14:07]   Shai : day is trending down
[14:07]   Shai : all rises used to exit sept positions
[14:09]   Shai : Nifty Oct F is seeing cobering now
[14:09]   Shai : so is Oct BNF
[14:15]   Shai : 15400 pe trade is looking at vwap of aug 15330 as a tgt
[14:16]   Shai : some profit booking also coming in oct F at lower levels
[14:16]   Shai : There is a max and a min in the tabs of the FP charts
[14:17]   Shai : and the difference would tell you how much is getting booked
[14:17]   r m : Thanks
[14:17]   Shai : NF is doing well comparatively’
[14:18]   Shai : so 8100 ce is a buy if the fig continues to improve into the close
[14:18]   Shai : 8100 ce oct
[14:18]   Shai : +600 against -200 in Oct would ttell us that shorts are not pushing ta the lower levels
[14:19]   Shai : and it is just sept liquidation creating the fall
[14:22]   Shai : time to look at 8000 pe
[14:23]   Anay : +600 is Sept and -20?0 is Oct rt
[14:23]   Shai : -228 now
[14:23]   Shai : yes oct
[14:24]   Shai : 8000 pe was written around 70- 80 in the middle of the month
[14:24]   Anay : ok
[14:24]   Shai : they are still in profit
[14:25]   Shai : 2 ways to know if shorts are covering
[14:25]   Shai : 1) is to look at the current price and displacement from max levels in FP chart
[14:25]   Shai : 2) the vertical blue bars will tell you if they are covering
[14:26]   Anay : how do u know that max writing happened between 70-80 on 8k PE?
[14:26]   Shai : price down below vwap with increase in OI
[14:27]   r m : @Anay, he monitors options OI everyday 🙂
[14:27]   Anay : 🙂
[14:30]   Shai : I look at OI but not the option charts
[14:30]   Anay : ok
[14:30]   Shai : 2 expiry trades are in plus now
[14:31]   Shai : 24 on the 16400 pe and 19 on the 8150- 8200
[14:31]   r m : 16400PE will be under price freeze at 40 for some time
[14:31]   Shai : oh
[14:32]   Shai : but today is expiry
[14:32]   r m : no freeze on expiry day?
[14:32]   Shai : don’t know for sure
[14:32]   Shai : I’m seeing an expiry trend day after 2 + years
[14:32]   r m : normally they take their own sweet time to open the price freeze
[14:33]   r m : opened fast 🙂
[14:33]   Shai : 45
[14:34]   r m : 52 next price freeze
[14:34]   Shai : (14:15) Shai :15400 pe trade is looking at vwap of aug 15330 as a tgt
[14:34]   Shai : froze
[14:34]   Shai : open
[14:35]   r m : now 70 next price freeze
[14:35]   Shai : Book out
[14:35]   r m : Thanks
[14:35]   Shai : 15356
[14:36]   Shai : book the 7950 pe also
[14:36]   Shai : 7920 spot is supp
[14:36]   r m : Great trades, thanks 🙂
[14:36]   Shai : keep the 8000 ce – we never know
[14:36]   r m : lol
[14:36]   Shai : 🙂
[14:40]   r m : this pink generated 85 points in BNF!
[14:41]   Shai : 🙂
[14:46]   r m : BNF has done 1000 points from 16364 on 11th sep
[14:47]   Shai : wow
[14:47]   Shai : out of the blue
[14:48]   Shai : usually an expiry range is 1200 in BNF
[14:48]   r m : ok
[14:48]   r m : still 40 minutes left 😀
[14:49]   Shai : selling has picked up again in OCT
[14:49]   r m : Europe is green, maybe there will be selloff in US tonight
[14:50]   r m : or more likely just an expiry event nicely catalyzed by SC ruling on coalblocks!
[14:52]   r m : spot below 7920
[14:59]   Porus : @shai, if FIIs have bought PEs in large qty today, what does that bode for the nex few days?
[15:00]   Shai : Generally Fii’s buy pe’s on expiry day and first few days of next series
[15:00]   Shai : that is insurance for their cash buys
[15:00]   Shai : We pay attention when Fii’s buy in the middle of the month
[15:00]   Shai : RM pointe dout the last event
[15:01]   Shai : BN is free BN is free fall
[15:01]   Shai : 7850 spot next
[15:01]   r m : (14:48) Shai :usually an expiry range is 1200 in BNF
[15:01]   r m : it is going as per your wishes 🙂
[15:02]   r m : 1100 and counting!
[15:02]   Porus : @shai, Do you have levels for ITC?
[15:03]   Shai : lol Rm
[15:03]   Shai : Sure Porus – what TF are u looking at?
[15:04]   Shai : BN is slicing through that zone u talked about earlier
[15:04]   Porus : daily
[15:04]   r m : yes, back to basics
[15:05]   r m : those 300 points were done in a single day 15225 to 15540
[15:06]   Shai : ITC supp at 366- 370
[15:06]   Shai : res to the m ove at 392
[15:08]   r m : MO going below -60 today
[15:10]   Shai : yes
[15:10]   Shai : still no sign of let off in oct
[15:10]   Amit J : shai, banknifty back in election range. does this mean long term rally over or we still have hopes
[15:11]   Shai : Amit we will bounce for sure and then we will lknow
[15:11]   Shai : 15580 has to cross for the rally to gain again
[15:12]   Shai : today is stuck pe writers caught pants down
[15:12]   Shai : 15500 pe too now
[15:12]   Anay : lol
[15:13]   Shai : I had 16000 pe from 360 – exiyed yesterday at 180 – never been more thank ful 🙂
[15:13]   r m : 🙂
[15:14]   Shai : 665 now
[15:14]   Anay : 🙂
[15:15]   r m : 11154 range in BNF sep, just 46 points left from that 1200!
[15:16]   r m : *1154
[15:16]   Shai : 1200 was 2 months in a row
[15:16]   Shai : so some affection there
[15:16]   Anay : Sept series ending flat
[15:16]   r m : yes
[15:17]   Shai : Nf has not flatlined yet
[15:18]   Shai : 3.15
[15:18]   Anay : not Oct CEs buying now?
[15:18]   r m : maybe NF has atleast 100 points in mind (from 7950)!
[15:19]   Kathir : @rm what will happen now bnf spot 353 fut 280 where they will close fut
[15:20]   r m : at spot last 30 minutes weighted average price is the settlement price
[15:20]   Shai : Yes covering seen
[15:21]   Shai : Buy 8100 ce in one part now
[15:21]   Shai : if we cross 8011 tom in oct we will add
[15:21]   Anay : ok
[15:21]   Chiranthan : 73 premium now
[15:22]   Shai : too much
[15:23]   Shai : market has been put in disarray
[15:23]   Anay : yes…very expensive
[15:23]   Chiranthan : I thought the premium was too much!
[15:24]   Anay : Oct FUT also at a premium of 60
[15:25]   Porus : 8400ce at 13.5
[15:28]   Shai : Nf BNf sytill short per OF
[15:28]   Shai : but some of them are taking profits
[15:29]   Shai : there is no bottom confirmation yet
[15:29]   Shai : and we have to visit lower again
[15:30]   Shai : Bye all
[15:30]   Shai : Have anice eve
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:30]   Anay : bye all
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:39]   Kathir : thanks and bye all