Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (10th to 14th May 2021)
14678 [ 14967 / 14592 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Value for the week was mostly lower at 14530-14560-14690 with that 14560 being an ultra-prominent POC which would act as a magnet in the coming days if Nifty stays below 14830. On the upside, sustaining above 14830 could lead to a test of the daily VPOC of 14904 and the extension handle of 14962 from 29th Apr above which the positional reference of 15052 would come back into play’
Nifty opened the week with a gap up above the higher VPOC of 14904 and even went on to tag the extension handle of 14962 not once but twice on Monday but could not sustain above it as it left similar highs at 14965 & 14967 indicating exhaustion coming in the upmove which started from last week as the auction formed a Gaussian profile and a Normal Day with a close around the prominent POC of 14937. Tuesday saw a big gap down of more than 150 points below the daily VPOC of 14830 confirming an Island Reversal on the daily time frame as the auction made a low of 14771 in the ‘A’ period and saw some short covering coming in resulting in a bounce back to 14900 till the ‘G’ period where it got rejected after a test of previous day’s range and formed a ‘p’ shape profile with another prominent POC at 14840. Nifty then made an Open Drive Down on Wednesday from just below the yPOC and went on to fall by 174 points leaving the largest daily range of the week as it made lows of 14650 in the ‘L’ period tagging the VPOC of 14690 in the process but left a 3-1-3 profile for the day giving a sharp bounce to 14696 into the close. Friday saw a higher open after the holiday on Thursday but for the third time in the week, the auction could not get above the previous day’s POC which meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was still to the downside and the probe to that ultra-prominent weekly POC of 14560 was on but the auction could only tag 14592 as the attempted Range Extension to the downside was rejected resulting in yet another 3-1-3 profile for the day as Nifty ended the week also with a Normal Day.
The weekly profile is a Trending One to the downside with multiple distributions as can be seen with daily VPOCs being left at 14753, 14840 & 14937 though the Value for the week was slightly overlapping to higher at 14615-14685-14835. The auction needs to sustain above 14685 in the coming week for any upside probe towards the 3 daily VPOCs as mentioned above failing which it could continue lower towards the weekly VPOCs of 14560 & 14315 with a daily VPOC at 14399 being an important level in between.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 14830 for a probe to 14904 / 14962 / 15052 / 15120 / 15196 & 15262
B) Accepting below 14820 could lead to a test of 14765 / 14690 / 14638 / 14564 / 14461 & 14399
NF (Weekly Profile) – 14715 [ 15023 / 14620 ]
NF opened with a gap up on Monday continuing the imbalance of previous week and even made multiple Range Extensions to the upside as it made new highs for the series at 15023 but continued the trend of both range & volumes contracting as it remained in a very narrow range of just 84 points forming a Gaussian profile with a close right at the day’s prominent POC of 14984. The auction then gave a big gap down open of 187 points on Tuesday confirming an Island Reversal on the daily timeframe when the bounce got stalled right at the lows of Monday after which it went on to trend lower for the rest of the week making a low of 14620 on Friday as it stopped just above previous week’s POC of 14609 and saw big volumes being traded at 14718 into the close which got this week’s POC also to shift lower from 14984. This week’s Value was overlapping to higher at 14643-14718-14868 with minor HVNs at 14765 & 14875 and a major one at 14984 which would be the references on the upside in the coming week whereas on the downside, NF would need fresh selling below 14718 for a probe lower towards the weekly VPOCs of 14604 & 14420.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (10th to 14th May 2021)
32169 [ 33297 / 32115 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The week started with a daily FA at 31906 after which it has formed a 4-day composite with Value at 32559-32813-32954 with the weekly profile itself being a well-balanced one in a relatively small range of 1353 points with overlapping to lower Value at 32370-32730-32970 with a good chance of giving a trending move in the coming week with the FA of 33455 & the weekly VPOC of 33660 as immediate references on the upside′
BankNifty opened the week with a gap up and remained above previous week’s Value but made the dreaded C side extension higher where it probed above previous week’s high and tagged 33297 but got rejected back into previous week’s range as it formed a very narrow range Gaussian profile of just 269 points with a prominent POC at 33172 displaying exhaustion on the upside which got further confirmation as the auction made a big gap down open of more than 500 points on Tuesday but took support at the weekly POC of 32730 as it gave a bounce to 33154 getting rejected from just below the yPOC indicating return of supply as it closed near the day’s prominent POC of 32853. BankNifty opened lower on Thursday giving a move down from previous Value as it made new lows for the week at 32352 forming a 3-1-3 profile for the day with yet another prominent daily POC at 32620. Friday started with the auction making an initial probe to the upside where it tagged the yPOC of 32620 but once again got rejected from previous day’s reference turning the PLR to the downside once again as it made new lows for the week at 32123 in the ‘F’ period after which the selling seemed to have got exhausted as BankNifty could not extend any further as it formed marginal new lows of 32115 in the ‘J’ period and formed a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with the dPOC also shifting lower to 32241 giving the third consecutive day with completely lower Value.
The weekly profile is a trending one to the downside closing around the lows after it began the week with a look up above previous Value and got rejected. Value for this week was overlapping to lower at 32130-32620-32880 and the auction would continue to remain weak below 32241 in the coming week for a probe towards the weekly VPOC of 31515 and the daily extension handle of 31074 from 22nd Apr whereas on the upside, BankNifty would need to get good buying above 32241 for a move towards the VPOCs of 32620, 32853 & 33172 in the coming week.
Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs a drive from 32170 for a rise to 32241 / 32415 / 32535 / 32620 / 32730 / 32853 & 33036
B) Accepting below 32130, the auction could test 31985 / 31906 / 31833 / 31722 / 31545 / 31411 & 31308
Extended Weekly Hypos
C) Above 33036, can expect higher levels of 33172 / 33306 / 33455 / 33660 / 33849 / 33958 & 34136
D) Below 31308, the auction could fall to 31216 / 31074 / 30955 / 30786 / 30555 / 30450 & 30319
BNF (Weekly Profile) – 32265 [ 33460 / 32184 ]
BNF did the opposite of previous week’s auction as it opened the week with a look up above previous week’s high as it tagged the VPOC of 33400 and recorded new highs for the series at 33460 but formed a Gaussian profile for the day with a prominent POC at 33306 and probed lower all week forming as it not only completed the 80% Rule in the weekly Value but went on to make new lows into the close at 32185 leaving a perfect Trend Down profile for the week all be it in a relatively smaller range of 1276 points. This week’s Value was overlapping to lower at 32193-32648-32991 as the auction filled up the lower part of previous week’s profile closing in an imbalance to the downside which could continue at open next week with 32007 & 31890 being the immediate references to watch below which the weekly VPOC of 31710 and the Trend Day VWAP of 31502 (22nd Apr) could come into play whereas on the upside, BNF would need to sustain above 32313 & 32402 and form higher Value on the daily time frame for a probe towards the daily VPOCs of 32706, 32925 & 33306.