Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Jul 2021)
15923 [ 15962 / 15645 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile which was a Neutral Extreme Down one has exactly the same range as previous week with slightly overlapping to higher Value at 15738-15822-15906 and an overlapping POC at 15822 which would be the important reference in the coming week in case of a bounce as rejection from there would confirm more weakness whereas acceptance above it and the daily VPOC of 15837 could see bring the higher VPOC of 15896 into play along with new ATH. On the downside, 15636 would need to hold failing which Nifty could test 15546 & the important positional reference of 15451’
Nifty opened higher on Monday and sustained above previous week’s VAL of 15738 but made the dreaded C side extension as it got swiftly rejected from 15789 and went on to leave a selling extension handle at 15746 confirming a FA (Failed Auction) at top and falling by more than 100 points completing the 1 ATR objective of 15657 & almost tagging previous week’s low of 15632 as hit 15645 leaving a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) profile for the day. NeuX are known not to give a follow up most of the times and the same repeated on Tuesday as the auction opened with a huge gap up of 102 points and the attempt to probe lower in the ‘D’ period got aborted right at the test of previous day’s extension handle resulting in a FA being confirmed at the day’s low of 15745 turning the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) firmly to the upside and went on to make a high of 15821 leaving back to back NeuX profiles but even this one did not give any continuation as Nifty made a slightly lower open on Wednesday and remained in previous Value for the IB after which it made a C side extension higher where it tagged the overlapping weekly POC of 15822 and followed it up with another RE in the D period leaving a buying extension handle at 15822 signalling that the buyers were getting more aggressive as it went on to complete the 1 ATR target from FA of 15745 making a high of 15877 before closing the day near the dPOC which had shifted higher to 15861. It would be apt to mention here that the market had been in a bracket since mid of June forming a large balance over the last 17 days with Value at 15733-15827-15874 (Click here to view the MPLite chart) and was at the upper end of the composite with a good chance of moving away from here which it did on Thursday with a move away from the yPOC of 15861 with the help of an initiative buying tail in the IB and made the third and the most effective C side extension of the week leading to new ATH (All Time High) of 15941 in the ‘D’ period. Things however slowed down in this unchartered territory as the auction began to get accepted and formed a balance not just for the rest of the day but continued the same on Friday too where it made new highs of 15962 at open but could not sustain and formed a nice Guassian profile with similar Value with overlapping POC at 15931 while taking support just above the buying singles of 15882 to 15855.
The weekly profile is a trending one to the upside with overlapping to higher Value at 15771-15921-15951 and has an extension handle at that ultra-prominent POC of 15822 but the shifting of the POC to the upper part suggests profit booking and further upside would depend on Nifty getting fresh demand above 15931 in the coming week whereas getting accepted below 15921 could push back the auction into the old bracket with 15861 & 15822 being the levels to watch for apart from the HVN of 15765.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 15942 for a probe to 15993 / 16037 / 16081 / 16115 / 16165 / 16206 / 16245
B) Accepting below 15921 could lead to a test of 15882 / 15827 / 15789 / 15745 / 15688 / 15640 / 15599
NF (Weekly Profile) – 15936 [ 15970 / 15657 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down one with a close below the overlapping Value at 15735-15844-15921 and has formed a HVN at 15723 which would be the immediate reference on the downside in the coming week whereas on the upside, the extension handles of 15791 & 15845 will be the levels to watch’
NF opened higher on Monday and even got above previous week’s lower extension handle of 15791 with the help of couple of REs (Range Extension) but stalled right at 15812 which was the daily extension handle of 8th July triggering a big fall in the second half of the day as it left an extension handle at 15760 and made a low of 15657 before closing right at the dPOC of 15712 leaving a Neutral Centre Day which was also a Double Distribution profile. Tuesday saw a higher open as the auction rejected the DD singles of 15760 to 15739 and the attempt it made to get back into it later in the day was once again met with rejection leading to a FA (Failed Auction) being confirmed at 15758 as NF stopped just below the higher weekly extension handle of 15845 leaving back to back Neutral Days and this extension handle was taken out on Wednesday as the 1 ATR objective of 15878 was acheived with a short covering ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 15851. The auction not only remained above this POC at open on Thursday but for the first time in the week left a buying tail in the ‘A’ period which indicated fresh demand coming in and these new buyers then left an extension handle at 15908 and went on to make new ATH (All Time High) at 15967 before closing the day at the prominent POC of 15937. Friday open saw marginal new highs for the week at 15970 but the lack of demand led to a probe lower as NF took support just above Thursday’s IB singles of 15887 to 15866 closing the day at the overlapping POC of 15936 and ending the week with a nice 2-day balance. The weekly profile remained in a relatively narrow range of 313 points but was a trending one as it made higher highs & higher lows on all 5 days with the Value at 15788-15934-15962 and the HVNs for this week which are at 15934 / 15851 & 15712 would be the important references for the coming week.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Jul 2021)
35752 [ 35985 / 35060 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral Centre one though also resembles a Double Distribution profile with overlapping to higher Value at 34912-35080-35600 and has 2 prominent HVNs at 35695 & 35080 so staying above 35080 could fill up the low volume zone between these HVNs in the coming week before giving a move away from either of them. However, if the auction stays below 35080, the downside reference would be the previous overlapping 2-week POC of 34752
BankNifty opened higher and left an initiative buying tail in the IB from 35298 to 35209 as it began to fill up the low volume zone till 35400 as the dreaded C side extension where it made a high of 35394 stalled the upmove once it left similar highs in the ‘G’ period, the exhaustion to the upside was obvious and this triggered a long liquidation drop to 35060 but the weekly POC of 35080 held well and gave a big gap up open of 280 points on Tuesday and in the probe lower stopped just above the yPOC of 35339 indicating that the control was with the buyers. BankNifty then gave a buying extension handle at 35495 and also left a tail till 35567 after which it went on to tag the upper weekly HVN of 35695 while making a high of 35728 forming a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Day but made a lower open on Wednesday as it tested the DD singles and even negated the extension handle of 35495 while making a low of 35435 where for the second consecutive day, the downside probe stopped just above the previous day’s POC which indicated that the buyer’s objective was still not done and this led to a fresh extension handle at 35598 and new highs for the week at 35804 with the auction forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 35682. Thursday open saw a move away from this POC with the help of buying singles in the IB from 35736 to 35625 after which BankNifty made a big C side RE leaving an extension handle at 35802 as it made new highs for the month at 35927 and formed higher highs over the next 2 periods hitting 35985 but the range kept contracting suggesting poor trade facilitation at these new highs along with the fact that this zone had the positional selling extension handle of 35988 dated back to 12th March as it left yet another ‘p’ shape profile for the day with the POC at 35920 which was not a good sign for the upmove to continue. This fact was further confirmed on Friday as the auction left a selling tail in the IB from 35978 to 35889 and went on to negate Thursday’s extension handle of 35802 and even tested the buying tail of 35736 to 35625 as it formed a ‘b’ shape profile leaving a Normal Day and an inside bar with a close below the prominent POC of 35781.
The weekly profile represents a composite ‘p’ with mostly higher Value at 35488-35696-35968 with a low volume zone from 35595 to 35080 which resembles the stem and would be the reference on the downside below 35690 in the coming week where as on the upside the daily POCs of 35781 & 35920 would be the levels which will need to be taken out for a fresh probe higher.
Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs a drive from 35781 for a rise to 35890 / 35988 / 36163 / 36233 / 36381 / 36504 / 36655
B) Accepting below 35720, the auction could test 35598 / 35488 / 35339 / 35237 / 35080 / 34950 / 34828
Extended Weekly Hypos
C) Above 36655, can expect higher levels of 36756 / 36865 / 36961 / 37059 / 37181 / 37331 / 37480 / 37625
D) Below 34828, the auction could fall to 34725 / 34630 / 34486 / 34393 / 34296 / 34153 / 34039 / 33908
BNF (Weekly Profile) – 35856 [ 36076 / 35152 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral Centre one with Value mostly higher at 35014-35224-35714 and has HVNs at 35329 & 35742 which would be the references on the upside in the coming week whereas on the downside the weekly VPOC of 34908 would be the level to watch′
BNF opened higher on Monday above the HVN of 35329 and went on to tag 35569 in the opening minutes but stalled just below the 8th July Trend Day VWAP of 35602 indicating that the supply was defending this zone which led to a fall in the afternoon as the auction moved away from the dPOC of 35460 & made multiple REs but left similar lows of 35152 & 35160 indicating exhaustion to the downside as it formed a DD (Double Distribution) profile with the dPOC also shifting lower to 35326 right near the HVN mentioned above. Tuesday saw a gap up of 220 points as BNF stayed above the HVN of 35460 resulting in a short squeeze and an extension handle at 35569 after which it went on to tag the higher weekly HVN of 35742 as it made a high of 35815 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day. The auction tested the extension handle of 35569 at open on Wednesday validating the demand there and went on to probe higher making new highs for the week at 35885 but ended up closing around the overlapping POC at 35767 and gave a move away from here with an initiative buying tail in the IB on Thursday from 35718 to 35816 after which it made couple of big REs to the upside scaling above previous week’s high of 35944 and hitting new highs for the series at 36068 but could not extend any further forming yet another ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 36005. BNF made a marginal new high of 36078 but got rejected back into previous day’s range leaving the first initiative selling tail in the IB of the week from 36076 to 35969 and formed a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile for the day taking out yesterday’s extension handle of 35875 and testing the buying singles of 35816 to 35718 while making a low of 35737 before closing the day right at the prominent dPOC of 35856. The weekly profile once again formed a narrow range of just 924 points but was a trending one higher with mostly higher Value at 35580-35794-36060 and has a low volume zone between 35740 to 35510 which would be the immediate reference on the downside where as staying above 35856 the higher level on watch would be the upper HVN of 36005.