Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Oct)
Spot Weekly – 11762 [ 12025 / 11661 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Trend Up one with a big range of 486 points and completely higher Value at 11598-11877-11931 but as it goes with trending profiles, we do not look at Value but the important zones which would be the HVNs of this week that are at 11877 / 11730 / 11593 & 11528 and would serve as support levels for the coming week. On the upside, Nifty needs to form Value above the VPOC of 11955 to continue this upmove for a probable target of the higher VPOC at 12121 and the swing high of 12152‘
Nifty opened with a gap up on Monday above the VPOC of 11955 and went on to make a high of 12022 in the ‘A’ period but could not extend further which not only marked the end of the imbalance from previous week but started a fresh probe lower for most part of the day as it got back into previous week’s range and Value falling by more than 150 points and taking support just above Friday’s PBL (Pull Back Low) of 11860 from where it gave a retracement back to 11945 before closing the day around the dPOC of 11930 leaving a balanced profile for the day and confriming that the stage 2 of IPM (Initial Price Movement) has started. Tuesday formed an inside bar both in terms of range & value with an overlapping POC at 11935 and the expected move away from this POC came in form of a Drive Down on Wednesday as the auction made new lows for the week at 11827 in the IB (Initial Balance) but the sellers failed to extend any further resulting in the formation of a ‘b’ shape profile for most part of the day with couple of failed attempts to break lower in the ‘E’ & ‘I’ periods where it left similar lows of 11822 & 11825 which validated that fact that the selling was getting exhausted which in turn led to a big short covering move in the last hour as Nifty confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) at lows and made a high of 11997 and in the process went on to tag the 1 ATR objective on the upside as it made a high of 11997 leaving a Neutral Extreme Profile. Thursday open saw a rare occurence of a Neutral Extreme giving a follow up as the auction hit new highs for the week at 12025 with a gap up but established a classic ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) which in turn led to a perfect Trend Day Down as Nifty made an OTF (One Time Frame) descend all day to leaving a typical PBH at 11914 and an extension handle at 11872 as it went on to confirm a weekly FA at highs and completed the 1 ATR objective of 11667 on the same day itself closing the day around the lows of 11661 giving a huge 364 point range. This imbalance then paved the way for a balance on the last day of the week as Nifty remained in the lower part of the previous profile forming a nice Gaussian Curve and ended as a Normal Day with a close around the day’s prominent POC at 11761.
The weekly profile looks like a developing DD (Double Distribution) as Nifty gave a move away from the 3-day balance and the composite POC of 11937 it was forming with a small selling tail from 11822 to 11790 below which it formed the mini balance on Friday. Value for the week was overlapping to higher at 11823-11937-12003 and the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) remains to the downside as long as the extension handle of 11872 & PBH of 11914 are not taken out. On the downside, we have the HVNs of the previous week’s Trend Up profile at 11593 & 11528 as important references.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11773 for a probe to 11825-872 / 11937 / 12003-042 & 12102-152
B) Immediate support is at 11877 below which it could test 11835 / 11787-730* & 11684
NF (Weekly Profile)
11765 [ 12014 / 11663 ]
NF opened higher this week continuing the imbalance of previous week’s Trend Up profile as it made a high of 12014 in the ‘A’ period but with no fresh demand coming in, it started a OTF move lower for most part of the day as it tagged the first weekly HVN of 11870 where it took support and gave a bounce back to 11951 leaving a balanced profile for the day and it continued this balance on Tuesday where it made an inside bar. The auction moved away from this 2-day balance with the composite POC at 11945 on Wednesday as it made new lows for the week at 11817 but invited lot of late sellers who were forced to cover in a Neutral Extreme set up as NF made a high of 12003 after confirming a FA at lows. Thursday open did not give a follow up to the Neutral Extreme close and in fact made a OTF move down which only gained in momentum as the day progressed clearly indicating that the auction was now in complete control of the sellers after the weak hands were taken out the previous day resulting in a big Trend Day Down of 336 points where NF made a low of 11663 testing the initiative buying tail of 7th Oct. As expected, the Trend Day paved way for a balance on Friday as the auction remained in a relatively narrow range of 125 points forming an inside bar and a Normal Day filling up the low volume area of the previous day’s profile and closing right at the prominent dPOC of 11765.
Value for the week is at 11792-11942-12008 with an extension handle at 11817 which would be the first reference on the upside along with the Trend Day’s references of 11864 & 11904 as supply points for the coming week. On the downside, negating the buying tail could lead to a test of the lower weekly HVNs of 11590 & 11520.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Oct)
Spot Weekly – 23533 [ 24190 / 22971 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated one with a range of 1657 points with higher Value at 22250-22640-23220 but it will be the HVNs which will be the important references on the downside for the coming week and the same are at 23670 / 23320 / 22923 / 22640 & 22430. On the upside, BankNifty needs to stay above 23845 for a probe towards the selling tail high of 24051 above which there are the PBHs of 24115 & 24290‘
BankNifty opened the week much above the level of 23845 and continued to probe higher in the ‘A’ period on Monday as it got above the selling tail high of 24051 as well as the first of the PBHs (Pull Back High) of 24115 but the upmove began to lose steam with the ‘B’ period making an inside bar after which the auction started a fresh leg lower as it got back into previous week’s range making multiple REs (Range Extension) as it went on to tag 23552 before closing around the dPOC of 23713. Tuesday saw Value being formed completely lower as BankNifty made new lows of 23431 and followed it up with a gap down open on Wednesday where the probe lower seemed to be stalling as it formed a narrow 200 point IB range which was the lowest in 2 weeks followed by a failed attempt to break lower in the ‘E’ period which resulted in a rejection from 23149. This rejection then triggered a big short covering move from the ‘K’ period onwards as the auction confirmed a FA at lows and went on to quadruple the IB range as it made a high of 23963 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 23679. BankNifty then gave a dip to 23639 at open on Thursday from where it resumed the imbalance higher as it hit 24088 in the B period but ended up with tails at both ends indicating that there were 2 equal forces fighting out for control resulting in a balance being formed till late afternoon before the sellers took complete control and drive the price lower from the ‘H’ period onwards as it left an extension handle at 23640 which forced all the buyers to liquidate as the FA of 23149 got re-visited and new lows for the week were made at 22971 in a spike close. This spike was rejected on Friday as BankNifty opened higher and went on to make multiple REs on the upside to test that extension handle of 23640 before closing the week at the dPOC of 23533.
Value for the week was higher at 23370-23550-23990 as the auction seems to be forming a balance over the bigger time frame which could continue in the coming week with the 2 HVNs of 23255 and 23888 being the immediate references to watch for volume or range expansion in either direction.
Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 23566 for a probe to 23640-715 / 23810-888 / 23935-990 & 24090-199
B) Accepting below 23795, the auction could test 23667-540 / 23450-377 / 23320-250 / 23190 & 23100-063
Extended Weekly Hypos
C) Above 24199, BankNifty can probe higher to 24290-350 / 24410-555 / 24625-747 & 24810-918
D) Below 22845, lower levels of 22770-625 / 22560-430 / 22350-280 & 22200-130 could come into play
BNF (Weekly Profile)
23584 [ 24217 / 22995 ]
BNF made a drive like open giving a 300 point rise from previous close in the opening 10 minutes where it hit 24217 which was a positional supply point because of the FA of 24211 it had left on 1st Sep and had not been re-visited since and this zone once again invited fresh supply resulting in a probe lower over the next 3 days and a fall of more than 1000 points which was halted by the FA at 23212 on Wednesday. The FA then retraced almost the entire fall as the auction gave a pull back to 24140 on Thursday but once again was met with aggressive selling resulting in yet another big fall of more than 1000 points as it formed a Trend Day Down tagging the vPOC of 23000 which marked the end of the downside for the week. BNF opened higher on Friday and shaped a mini DD (Double Distribution) higher as it tested the Trend Day extension handle of 23684 before giving a close at 23584. This week’s Value was completely higher at 23394-23604-23982 and has a HVN at 23730 which would be the level to watch on the upside.