Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (18th to 22nd January 2021)
Spot Weekly – 14372 [ 14753 / 14222 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 14454-14526-14586 but for the first time in several weeks has closed below the weekly Value so the PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside’
Nifty opened the week with a Drive Down from previous week’s VAL (Value Area Low) of 14454 on Monday falling by almost 200 points in the first 3 periods after which it formed a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile with a prominent POC at 14312 and went on to spike lower into the close from 14263 to 14222. This spike was completely rejected as the auction opened with a big gap up much above the POC of 14312 on Tuesday indicating that the selling got too emotional hence trapping the late shorts and inviting fresh longs leading to a Trend Day Up as it got back into previous week’s Value and went on to tag the weekly POC of 14526 to the dot an in the process confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) on the weekly time frame. Nifty continued this imbalance on Wednesday first leaving a buying tail in the IB (Initial Balance) where it made a high of 14588 as it completed the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value after which it made multiple Range Extensions higher completing the 1 ATR target of 14609 from the FA and even went on to make new highs for the month at 14666 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with the dPOC at 14612. Thursday saw another big gap up open as new highs of 14738 was tagged in the IB but the auction settled into an OAOR (Open Auction Out of Range) staying in a very narrow range of just 43 points after which it probed above IBH in all the TPOs from ‘D’ to ‘I’ but could only extend the range by a mere 15 points indicating poor trade facilitation and a probable distribution happening around the day’s developing POC of 14736. More confirmation of the buyers handing over the baton to the sellers came in the ‘K period in form of an extension handle at 14695 as Nifty not only closed the gap but went on to match previous day’s low of 14517 leaving a Neutral Extreme Down Day. Friday saw an OAIR start as the auction got accepted in the Neutral Extreme zone of 14633 to 14517 in the IB after which it made a C side extension higher which was swiftly rejected from 14620 indicating presence of aggressive supply after which Nifty trended lower all day confirming a FA at top as it left couple of PBHs at 14537 & 14486 while completing the 1 ATR objective of 14447 after which it spiked lower into the close making exactly the same range as last Friday as it tagged previous week’s low of 14357 before closing the week at 14372. The weekly profile is a Neutral One which extended previous week’s range on both sides forrming an outside bar both in terms of range and Value which was overlapping at 14346-14604-14628 with a close near the VAL so the PLR for the coming week would be to the downside towards the daily VPOC of 14312 & the weekly POC of 14193. On the upside, Nifty would need to sustain above 14432 for a probable test of 14486 & 14537.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 14385 for a probe to 14432 / 14486 / 14527 / 14575 / 14620 / 14666 & 14695
B) Accepting below 14357 could lead to a test of 14312 / 14263 / 14222 / 14186 / 14157 / 14100 & 14063
NF (Weekly Profile)
14380 [ 14765 / 14250 ]
NF opened the week with a probe lower as it moved away from previous week’s Value on Monday breaking below the daily VPOC of 14320 and closing with a spike down to 14250 with the dPOC shifting to 14310 but this spike got rejected on Tuesday as the auction not only opened with a gap up but trended higher all day to get back into previous week’s Value and almost tagged the weekly POC of 14600 as it made a high of 14586. This imbalance continued for the next 2 days as the auction formed higher Value on Wednesday where it hit new highs for the series at 14670 and followed it up with another gap up open on Thursday as it settled down into an OAOR with a IB of just 48 points which indicated that the trade facilitation at these new highs was getting poorer. NF was forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day but the late afternoon break of VWAP led to a huge liquidation move lower as it went on to drop by more than 250 points from day’s high of 14765 leaving Neutral Extreme Profile with a daily extension handle at 14683. Friday opened in the Neutral Extreme zone in the IB but an attempt to probe higher in the ‘C’ period was swiftly rejected leading to a fresh OTF move lower for the day as the auction confirmed a FA at 14626 and completed the 1 ATR objective of 14459 with ease before leaving yet another NeuX profile on the daily as it made a low of 14356 before closing the week at 14380. This week’s range & value formed an outisde bar with almost overlapping VAH & POC at 14350-14580-14630 but the close near the VAL means the PLR would remain to the downside in the coming week for a test of the weekly VPOC of 14222.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (18th to 22nd January 2021)
Spot Weekly – 31167 [ 32842 / 31120 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral one with overlapping to higher Value at 32090-32311-32614 and was marked by clear absence of demand at higher levels. The immediate reference on the upside for the coming week would be 32311 above which we have the daily VPOC of 32600 as the higher level to watch and on the downside 32090 would be the first support level below which the extension handle of 31948 & the buying singles from 31816 would be the important levels to be held‘
BankNifty continued last Friday’s imbalance to the downside breaking below previous week’s Value post IB on Monday and went on to spike lower into the close from 31809 t0 31650 but rejected this spike on Tuersday open with a gap up open of 270 points on Tuesday as the auction got back into previous week’s Value and made new highs for the week at 32465 closing in a spike on the upside. This spike got accepted on Wednesday as BankNifty made new highs for the week at 32607 forming a narrow range Gaussian profile for the day with a prominent POC at 32454 and followed it up with another gap up open on Thursday at new ATH (All Time High) of 32733 but settled down into an OAOR as it remained in one of the narrowest IB range of just 112 points. The auction continued to form a balance in this range for the first half of the day after which it made a ‘G’ side extension higher where it made new highs of 32842 but could not extend further as it once again began to coil forming inside bars in the next 2 periods which meant no fresh demand was coming in at these new highs and triggered a huge liquidation move once BankNifty got back into the IB in the ‘J’ period as it fell by more than 850 points from the highs leaving a Neutral Extreme Day Down with the reference from 32462 to 31985. Friday saw a rare follow up to a Neutral Extreme profile in form of a Drive Down at open confirming an initiative selling tail from 31981 to 32131 as the auction continued to make an OTF (One Time Frame) probe lower all day to close the week with a Trend Day Down. On the weekly timeframe, BankNifty has formed a large outside bar with almost overlapping Value at 31800-32060-32600 with a Neutral Extreme Down profile and the Neutral Extreme zone for the coming week would be from 31120 to 31520.
Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty sustaining above 31200 could rise to 31330 / 31425 / 31520 / 31725 / 31827 & 31982
B) Accepting below 31130, the auction could test 30975 / 30893 / 30729 / 30633 / 30444 & 30338
BNF (Weekly Profile)
31198 [ 32899 / 31123 ]
BNF probed lower on Monday breaking below previous week’s low of 31810 as it hit 31692 but reversed the probe to the upside with a gap up on Tuesday followed by a trending move higher till Thursday afternoon where it made new highs for the series at 32899 but lack of fresh demand & return of aggressive supply then triggered a huge fall of 898 points into the close as the auction left a Neutral Extreme Down Day. The auction got accepted in the Neutral Extreme zone as it made a high of 32227 in the IB on Friday and went on to leave a Trend Day Down as it dropped by 1104 points stalling right in the Value of the earlier 6-day composite (29th Dec 2020 to 5th Jan 2021) where it played the 80% Rule 3 times both up & down with the POC shifting to lows at close. This week’s profile is a Neutral Extreme Down with the Value at 31776-32016-32644 and a daily extension handle at 31691 with the immediate reference for the coming week being from 31123 to 31542.