Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (19th to 23rd Jul 2021)
15856 [ 15899 / 15578 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one to the upside with overlapping to higher Value at 15771-15921-15951 and has an extension handle at that ultra-prominent POC of 15822 but the shifting of the POC to the upper part suggests profit booking and further upside would depend on Nifty getting fresh demand above 15931 in the coming week whereas getting accepted below 15921 could push back the auction into the old bracket with 15861 & 15822 being the levels to watch for apart from the HVN of 15765’
Nifty opened the week with a big gap down of 168 points and below the lower HVN of 15765 but took support in the small singles zone of previous week’s profile from 15724 to 15744 as it made a low of 15736 and gave a swift short covering move in the IB (Initial Balance) getting back into the weekly Value and making a high of 15836 after which the auction failed to extend any further on the upside due to lack of fresh demand & began to coil in a narrow range of 30 points forming a ‘p’ shape profile building a HVN at 15822 before the sellers came back aggressively in the ‘G’ period initiating a fresh leg lower resulting in couple REs (Range Extension) into the close. This imbalance continued on Tuesday with the help of an initiative selling tail in the IB from 15728 to 15683 along with an OTF (One Time Frame) move lower for the first half of the day as Nifty not only broke below previous week’s lows but went on to make new lows for the month at 15578. However, the new lows did not find fresh supply triggering a retracement back to the base of the morning selling tail as the day ended with a ‘b’ shape profile which was not a good sign for the sellers even though it closed below the dPOC of 15666. The sellers got further punished in the gap up open on Thursday where the auction not only negated the selling tail of Tuesday and sustained above it forcing the shorts to cover but almost tagged new highs for the week leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 15808 and followed it up with a higher open on Friday as Nifty hit 15876 but got swiftly rejected back into previous days range & value forming the biggest IB range for the month of 108 points as it made a low of 15768 taking support right above Thursday’s buying tail and remained largely in the same for most part of the day though it made new highs of 15899 but could not sustain closing around the dPOC of 15848 and a Normal Day.
The weekly profile is a Neutral one and looks like a DD (Double Distribution) as it got back into the balance it has been forming over the last 6 weeks after making an attempt to move away on the first 2 days failed resulting in a small tail in the middle from 15683 to 15707 seperating the 2 distributions with the upper one having a prominent POC at 15810 which will be the reference to watch on the downside for the coming session(s). Value was overlapping to slightly lower at 15726-15810-15894 with previous week’s POC 15921 being untouched and would be the level which needs to be taken out on the upside for a fresh move higher.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 15876 for a probe to 15921 / 15962 / 16008 / 16065 / 16115 / 16165 / 16206
B) Accepting below 15841 could lead to a test of 15810 / 15765 / 15707 / 15666 / 15617 / 15565 / 15504
NF (Weekly Profile) – 15853 [ 15897 / 15586 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile remained in a relatively narrow range of 313 points but was a trending one as it made higher highs & higher lows on all 5 days with the Value at 15788-15934-15962 and the HVNs for this week which are at 15934 / 15851 & 15712 would be the important references for the coming week’
NF made a big gap down of 166 points and re-visited the daily FA of 15758 it had left on 13th July taking support there as it made a low of 15743 in the ‘A’ period after which it made a probe higher but could only tag similar highs of 15836 in the IB (Initial Balance) indicating exhaustion on the upside and the decisive break of VWAP later in the day led to multiple RE’s to the downside as the auction tagged the 12th Jul VPOC of 15712 leaving a DD (Double Distriubution) type profile with the HVNs at 15820 & 15757. The auction continued the imbalance to the downside after opening lower on Tuesday with the help of another initiative selling tail from 15745 to 15683 after which it went on to make new lows for the series at 15616 with a big C side extension and formed lower lows till the ‘F’ period where it tagged 15586 taking support in the buying tail from 21st June (15592 to 15557) forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a prominent POC at 15632. NF confirmed a reversal on Thursday as it not only opened with a gap up moving away from 15632 but negated the selling singles of 15683 to 15745 replacing it with an initiative buying tail from 15751 to 15700 and an extension handle at 15757 after which it went on to tag the upper HVN of Monday’s DD profile which was at 15820 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day. Friday saw another higher open as the auction made new highs for the week at 15867 but was swiftly rejected confirming an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) as it swiped through previous day’s Value falling by more than 100 points in the ‘A’ period but stopped just above the extension handle of 15757 which was a sign that the buyers were defending this level. NF then scaled above VWAP in the ‘B’ period negating the ORR start and began to coil in a narrow range till the ‘G’ period after which it made a RE to the upside in the ‘H’ period and followed it up with higher highs in the next 2 as it hit 15897 but the large IB range held it back from rising further pulling it back to the day’s VWAP of 15840 into the close. The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme one with overlapping to lower Value at 15711-15813-15885 and the immediate zone to watch in the expiry week would be 15836-15897 with the daily VPOC of 15937 being the upper reference and this week’s VWAP of 15752 being the important lower level.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (19th to 23rd Jul 2021)
35034 [ 35347 / 34357 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile represents a composite ‘p’ with mostly higher Value at 35488-35696-35968 with a low volume zone from 35595 to 35080 which resembles the stem and would be the reference on the downside below 35690 in the coming week where as on the upside the daily POCs of 35781 & 35920 would be the levels which will need to be taken out for a fresh probe higher
BankNifty also opened with a huge gap down of 681 points below previous week’s low & made a entry back into the stem of 35080 to 35595 leaving a buying tail from 35274 to 35010 in the IB as it made a high of 35347. However, the auction could not extend any higher and once the ‘D’ period made an entry into the morning singles, it trigerred a big OTF (One Time Frame) probe to the downside resulting in a RE in the ‘H’ period as BankNifty made a low of 34899 before closing the day at 35079 and continued this imbalance with an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start from 34894 as it fell by a further 383 points in the ‘A’ period breaking below the prominent weekly VPOC of 34784 with ease while making a low of 34511. The sellers were still not done and made multiple REs lower from the C to the F periods but unlike the previous day, the range kept contracting as it made new lows of the week at 34357 testing the extension handle of 34393 from 21st June marking the end of the downside move after which it formed a balance building the dPOC at 34461 and closing the day with a ‘b’ shape profile indicating a bad job done by the sellers inspite of the initiative tail from 34674 to 34894. There was further trouble for the shorts as the auction opened higher and got accepted in the previous singles leading to a squeeze till the ‘D’ period where it made a high of 34989 stalling just below Monday’s VPOC of 35031 which indicated that the demand was not good enough to take out this higher supply zone enabling the sellers to take control for the rest of the day resulting in new lows of 34557 & a Neutral Extreme profile. Friday saw a slightly higher open as the NeuX once again did not give a follow up but was rejected from previous day’s Scene of Crime at 35825 as it broke below PDL (Previous Day Low) and swiped through the Value of Tuesday’s ‘b’ shape profile completing a quick 80% Rule first on the downside as it made a low of 34405 and then got swiftly rejected from Tuesday’s VAL as it not only made the reverse 80% Rule come into play but also went on to make new highs in the ‘B’ period leaving the largest IB range in July of 450 points. The auction then made the dreaded C side extension triggering a dip to 34634 in the ‘D’ period where it confirmed a PBL after which it trended higher for the rest of the day taking out the VPOC of 35031 while making a high of 35088 forming an outside day along with the biggest daily range for this month.
The weekly profile has formed competely lower Value at 34460-34760-34980 but the close has been above the VAH indicating that the downside could be done with more confirmation needed of the auction scaling above 35411 and sustaining for a move towards the VPOCs of 35700 & 35920 in the coming week whereas on the downside, the old reference of 34750 would be the first line of support below which the levels of 34460 & 34296 could open up.
Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs a drive from 35070 for a rise to 35154 / 35254 / 35411 / 35535 / 35700 / 35818 / 35920
B) Accepting below 34977, the auction could test 34899 / 34760 / 34634 / 34460 / 34371 / 34296 / 34153
Extended Weekly Hypos
C) Above 35920, can expect higher levels of 35988 / 36163 / 36233 / 36381 / 36504 / 36655 / 36756 / 36865
D) Below 34153, the auction could fall to 34039 / 33908 / 33833 / 33685 / 33560 / 33447 / 33306 / 33200
BNF (Weekly Profile) – 35041 [ 35450 / 34405 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile once again formed a narrow range of just 924 points but was a trending one higher with mostly higher Value at 35580-35794-36060 and has a low volume zone between 35740 to 35510 which would be the immediate reference on the downside where as staying above 35856 the higher level on watch would be the upper HVN of 36005′
BNF also made a huge gap down of 634 points but took support at previous week’s low giving a good bounce from 35150 in the A period as it went on to make a high of 35450 as the IB (Initial Balance) got completed but could not get above the reference of 35510 and formed an OTF (One Time Frame) lower from the ‘C’ period onwards till the ‘H’ period where it made a low of 34965 making a pause in the buying singles of 09th July but continued this imbalance with another lower open on Tuesday as the auction confirmed an ORR (Open Rejection Reverse) start and not only broke below the weekly VPOC of 34908 making new lows for the series but left an initiative selling tail from 34759 to 35001 and made a C side extension where it negated the buying extension handle of 34526 from 21st June and followed it with lower lows till the ‘F’ period making a low of 34460 but the range kept getting narrower indicating exhaustion and ended the day as a ‘b’ shape profile with marginal new lows of 34440 & a PBH at 34681. Thursday saw a higher open above this PBH which triggered a short covering squeeze till 35049 but the similar highs made in the ‘D’ & ‘E’ period suggested lack of fresh demand and this led to an OTF probe to the downside as the sellers took control and were successful in making new lows for the day in the ‘K’ period and seemed it was headed for a Neutral Extreme Day as it made a lower low of 34600 in the ‘L’ period but stopped just short of the yPOC of 34568 giving a small bounce to 34755 into the close. BNF then completed that Neutral Extreme play at open on Friday as it made a quick fall of almot 400 points in the opening minutes and made new lows for the week & series as well at 34405 but did not find any fresh selling and got swiftly rejected as it not only retraced the entire fall in the ‘B’ period but went on to make new highs for the day at 34920 in the IB leaving a pretty large IB range of 515 points. The auction then made a typical C side extension triggering a move back to the day’s VWAP in the ‘D’ period where it left a PBL at 34665 and the defence of VWAP meant that the buyers were in control and this led to a slow OTF probe higher for the rest of the day resulting in multiple REs and another PBL at 34928 in the ‘K’ period after which it went on to check above PDH amd tagged the 19th July VPOC of 35106 while making a high of 35130 before some profit booking into the close brought it back to 35041. The weekly profile was a Normal Variation Down one with completely lower Value at 34626-34830-35130 and a HVN at 34920 but as mentioned above the shorts seemed to have booked out as the auction has closed around the upper end of the Value so staying above 34920, the PLR for the expiry week would be to the upside with immediate reference being 19th July’s VWAP of 35210 & the HVN of 35326.