Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (20th to 24th Dec 2021)
17004 [ 17155 / 16410 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one to the downside with a big range of 673 points although the Value was completely inside at 17193-17265-17415. The PBH (Pull Back High) of 17108 & the daily extension handle at 17185 would be the immediate references on the upside for the coming week whereas on the downside the initiative buying tail from 16971 to 16782 from 29th Nov would be the zone to watch with the weekly FA of 17892 as an important level within it’
Nifty continued previous week’s imbalance to the downside with a big gap down open on Monday along with a Drive which negated the buying singles of 29th Nov along with the weekly FA of 16892 as it made a 255 point drop to 16585 in the IB (Initial Balance) and continued to trend lower for the first half of the day tagging the 4 month old daily VPOC of 16534 from 24th Aug and the 2-day composite VPOC of 16469 (20th & 23rd Aug) [Click here for Aug MP chart] while making a low of 16410 in the H period stalling just above the buying singles of that composite and the monthly extension handle of 16375 confriming a small but important responsive buying tail till 16444 and marking the end of the downmove. The auction then probed higher to close above the dPOC of 16550 forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day and persisted with the upside as it opened with a gap up on Tuesday and formed higher Value while leaving a multi-day FA (Failed Auction) at 16688 and resumed the upmove on Wednesday with another higher open and a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) profile where it confirmed another daily FA at 16819 along with an extension handle at 16920 and gave a rare follow up to a NeuX profile with a hat-trick of gap ups on Thursday which saw Nifty completing the 1 ATR objective of 17058 from previous day’s FA but was stuck in a very narrow range of just 103 points all day with a 3-1-3 profile indicating poor trade facilitation. Friday saw the 4th consecutive higher open as the auction opened in the initiative selling tail of 17th Dec but was swiftly rejected after making a high of 17155 marking the return of big supply as it not only swiped through previous day’s range & value but went on to tag the 22nd Dec extension handle of 16920 with a C side extension and left a small tail at lows which meant the supply had met some good demand. Nifty formed a ‘b’ shape Normal profile for the day with a prominent POC at 16947 & gave a late bounce to 17068 into the close before closing the week at 17004.
This week’s profile started with a big fall which was retraced and has given a close around the same level as last week though Value has been completely lower at 16764-16872-17094 with a small tail at top from 17118 to 17155 which is an important supply zone as we have the daily extension handle of 17185 also just above this and will need good amout of effort by the buyers to take them out. As for the downside, this week’s prominent POC of 16884 will be the important level to watch along with the FAs of 16818 & 16688 below which the daily VPOC of 16550 could come into play.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 17017 for a probe to 17068 / 17118 / 17185 / 17261 / 17308 / 17363 / 17415 / 17458
B) Accepting below 16980 could lead to a test of 16920 / 16883 / 16818 / 16746 / 16688 / 16635 / 16550
NF (Weekly Profile) – 17004 [ 17160 / 16431 ]
A Red Friday usually leads to a Red Monday and this was seen as NF not only opened on Monday with a big gap down of 175 points negating the weekly FA of 16942 but continued to form an OTF (One Time Frame) probe lower till the H period falling by 487 points as it made a low of 16431 completing the 1 ATR objecitve from 16942 and left a small tail at lows marking the end of the downside & triggered a bounce back to the day’s VWAP into the close bringing the dPOC also down to 16635 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day and followed it up with a higher open on Tuesday as it got accepted in previous day’s selling singles but formed similar highs in the H period signalling exhaustion in the upmove which inturn triggered a big liquidation fall as the auction went on to make new lows for the day at 16708 before giving a bounce back to the dPOC of 16809 into the close leaving a Neutral Centre Day with completely higher Value. Wednesday saw a Gaussian Curve being formed for most part of the day with a C side extension of 16832 holding the downside and saw a RE higher in the H period getting swiftly rejected resulting in a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 16862 which formed a base for the buyers to launch a fresh attack late in the day with an extension handle at 16940 & a spike close till 16985 confirming a FA at lows & leaving a Neutral Extreme Up Day with higher Value once again with the dPOC also shifting to 16979 and continued this imbalance with a open right at the 1 ATR target of 17076 from the FA (Failed Auction) of 16832 and scaled above 17th Dec VWAP of 17094 making a high of 17124 in the IB forming a narrow 78 point range. NF then made attempts to break on both sides of the IB but got rejected forming a balanced profile for the day with completely higher Value but on reduced range & volumes suggesting poor trade facilitation suggesting that the upmove was coming to an end which got confirmed on Friday where inspite of the 4th consecutive higher open of the week, the auction was swiftly rejected ion from the 17th Dec extension handle of 17152 falling by 225 points in the IB where it tagged the VPOC of 16979 as well as the extension handle of 16940 while making a low of 16935 but made a typical C side extension which marked the end of the imbalance and started a new balance for the rest of the day with the auction leaving a PBH at 17080 before closing at the prominent POC of 17006 leaving a ‘b’ shape Normal Day. The weekly profile which began with a big fall on Monday is a Normal Variation one to the upside as the subsequent upmove got rejected from previous week’s extension handle which ensures that the Value is completely lower at 16768-16900-17096.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (20th to 24th Dec 2021)
34857 [ 35477 / 34018 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a trending one to the downside with a prominent POC at 36912 with overlapping to lower Value at 36372-36912-37236 with immediate extension handles at 35835 & 36078 which will be the levels to watch on the upside in the coming week. On the downside, the buying singles from 35526 along with the daily & weekly swing low 35328 would be the zone to be taken out’
BankNifty also continued previous week’s imbalance to the downside with a big gap down of almost 500 points on Monday as it not only negated the buying singles of 35526 along with the swing low of 35328 but fell by another 1000+ points in the day to trend lower for the first half of the day as it tagged the weekly VPOC of 34566 and hit lows of 34018 as the auction tested the Initiative Price Movement (IPM) which had started from 28th Jul & left a responsive buying tail till 34099 marking the end of the imbalance to the downside closing the day with a ‘b’ shape profile with a prominent POC at 34348. [Click here for 28th Jul MP chart]. The auction then opened higher on Tuesday forming Value in the stem of the ‘b’ shape profile of 34650 to 35231 and even made couple of RE’s to the upside but could only tag 35050 indicating exhaustion after which it made a late RE to the downside in an attempt to get back into previous Value was swiftly rejected as it left another responsive buying tail from 34525 to 34390 leaving the first of the Neutral Days of the week. Wednesday remained largely in Tuesday’s Value as BankNifty filled up the low volume zone forming a nice Gaussian Curve on the daily with a typical C side extension getting rejected at previous VAL & confriming a FA (Failed Auction) at 34687 into the close with a spike forming the second Neutral Day of the week and continued this imbalance to the upside with another higher open on Thursday where it tagged the 1 ATR objective of 35342 but settled into an OAOR forming a narrow IB range of just 233 points and for the second day in succession made a C side RE lower which got rejected at 35093 and went on leave a FA while making new highs for the week at 35477 but the inability to get back into previous week’s range meant that the sellers were still holding the zone and this led to the FA being negated & the completion of a hat-trick of Neutral Days with the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) turning to the downside which was confirmed in the strong Open Drive the auction gave on Friday as it swiped through the Value Areas of the previous 2 sessions in the IB itself dropping by a big 723 points which included an initiative tail from 34851 to 35328 and yet again made the dreaded C side extension making a low of 34583 which stalled the downmove as a balance started to form between 34605 & 34805 with the dPOC forming at 34712 and the failure of sellers to push lower led to a short covering move late in the day as BankNifty got into the morning singles & made a high of 35075 getting rejected at PDL before closing the week at 34857 forming a Normal Day & a ‘b’ shape profile.
The weekly profile is a 3-1-3 type with a nice balance in the middle and rejection at the 2 extremes with completely lower Value at 34560-34860-35232 and has closed right at the prominent POC so will need to get an initiative move away from here for a fresh imbalance in the coming week failing which it could continue to form Value in this week’s range of 1459 points.
Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A)BankNifty needs a drive from 34873 for a rise to 35051 / 35189 / 35328 / 35512 / 35696 / 35880 / 36078 / 36258 / 35385
B) Accepting below 34848, the auction could test 34712 / 34525 / 34348 / 34225 / 34099 / 33907 / 33698 / 33560 / 33334
BNF (Weekly Profile) – 34875 [ 35550 / 34123 ]
BNF opened the week with a big 449 point gap down & continued to drive lower after leaving an initiative selling tail from 34786 to 35350 and an extension handle at 34691 to make a low of 34123 in the H period but confirmed a responsive buying tail till 34200 triggering a sharp short covering move to 34615 into the close leaving a ‘b’ shape profile & opened higher on Tuesday negating the extension handle of 34691 as it got accepted in previous day’s initiative selling tail as it made a high of 35123 but saw supply coming back which led to a big liquidation break & new lows for the day at 34429 as the auction tagged the yPOC of 34478 but got rejected leaving a responsive buying tail till 34576 leaving a Neutral profile with completely higher Value. Wednesday saw a quiet OAIR start with a nice balance being formed after a narrow IB range of just 250 points filling up the low volume zone of previous profile before giving a spike higher into the close confirming a FA at lows of 34746 and leaving a Neutral Extreme Day Up though Value was completely inside forming a nice 2-day composite at 34807-34987-35086. BNF then gave a rare follow up to a NeuX profile with a big gap up of almost 300 points as it tagged the 1 ATR target of 35408 but settled into an OAOR forming another very narrow IB range of just 229 points after which it made the dreaded C side extension lower to 35142 but this entry into previous day’s range was swiftly rejected back resulting in another FA being confirmed at lows as the auction completed the 1.5 IB objective of 35524 which was also the Gap Down mid-point of 20th Dec where it left a small responsive selling tail indicating return of aggressive supply and this triggered a big liquidation move resulting in new lows of 35090 in the closing minutes leaving a Neutral Extreme Day Down though Value was completely higher with the prominent POC at 35288 & the NeuX VWAP at 35317. The NeuX profile did not get any follow through at open on Friday which was higher but stalled right at yVWAP of 35317 and confirmed an OTD (Open Test Drive) as it completed the 80% Rule in the 2-day composite Value of 35086-34987-34807 & formed a big 679 point range in the IB after which it made the dreaded C side extension tagging marginal new lows of 34614 which got rejected resulting in a ‘b’ shape profile for the day with a close around the dPOC of 34868. The weekly profile has small tails at both ends with completely lower Value at 34640-34968-35280 and has closed in the middle of the profile so it remains to be seen if it continues to form a balance in the coming week or gives an initiative move away from here.