Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (21st to 24th Dec 2020)
Spot Weekly – 13749 [ 13777 / 13131 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Double Distribution (DD) Trend Up one with overlapping to higher Value at 13449-13533-13695 and the DD zone from 13625 to 13580 which would be the support to watch for in the coming week if the auction stays below the HVN of 13704‘
Nifty made an OAIR (Open Auction In Range) start on Monday and probed lower at open breaking below the HVN of 13704 as it tested previous week’s Value while making a low of 13674 in the opening minutes but got rejected reversing the probe to the upside for the rest of the IB (Initial Balance) as it made a high of 13764 after which it made the dreaded C side extension where it hit new ATH (All Time High) of 13777 but due to lack of demand was immediately rejected back into the IB and even made a RE (Range Extension) lower in the ‘H’ period confirming a FA (Failed Auction) at these new highs which triggered a big liquidation drop as Nifty broke below previous week’s DD zone of 13625 to 13580 with ease in the ‘J’ period leading to a test of the weekly POC of 13533 which was also the 2 ATR target from the FA but once that broke in the ‘K’ period, the fall gained in momentum slicing through the important levels of the weekly FA at 13447 & the VPOC at 13420 and went on to make a low of 13131 revisting the FA of 13152 of 4th Dec and all this happened in the never ending ‘K’ period. However, the latter part of the fall looked too emotional as the daily profile of Monday which looked too stretched confirmed a tail at lows from 13207 to 13131 after which Nifty took support in this buying singles on Tuesday where it made a low of 13193 confriming that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) now had turned to the upside and began a retracement of the entire fall over the next 3 days forming higher Value on the daily time frame and even confirmed another FA at 13627 on Thursday as it made an attempt to make a RE lower and went on to make a high of 13771 before closing the week at 13749 almost at the same level where it had opened. The weekly profile remained in Monday’s range of 646 points all week with Value at 13197-13282-13605 with a prominent HVN at 13735 which would be the immediate reference for the coming week along with the 2 FAs at 13777 & 13627 so the last week of 2020 could give a move in the direction of which of these FAs get negated.
Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs a drive above 13755 for a probe to 13796 / 13860 / 13920 / 13965 / 14001 & 14043
B) Accepting below 13745 could lead to a test of 13696 / 13627 / 13580 / 13530* / 13493 & 13449
NF (Weekly Profile)
13764 [ 13785 / 13155 ]
NF made an OAIR start to the week but the confirmation of a FA at 13785 on Monday in a typical C side extension which failed led to a montrous liquidation move to the downside as the auction broke below the weekly VPOC of 13446 which only increased the speed of the fall and went on to retrace the entire upmove of this series tagging the daily VPOCs of 13260 & 13190 as it made a low of 13155 stopping just above the 2nd Dec VPOC of 13151 which saw good profit booking by the initiative shorts as it left a buying tail from 13225 to 13155. Tuesday saw another OAIR start as NF not only defended previous day’s buying tail but also confirmed a FA at 13222 which indicated that the PLR had turned to the upside as the auction built volumes around 13300 before giving a Neutral Extreme close for the day as it made highs of 13508 and gave an ORR start to the upside on Wednesday leaving another buying tail from 13509 to 13448 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day as it made highs of 13627. NF opened higher on Thursday and continued the imbalance to the upside in the IB as it hit 13747 and made the dreaded C side extension which got rejected leading to new lows for the day at 13641 in the ‘E’ period confirming the third FA of the week at 13748 but once again the auction could not sustain outside the IB suggesting return of demand and this led to a OTF move higher for the rest of the day as the auction not only negated the morning FA but confirmed a new FA at lows of 13641 as it almost tagged Monday’s FA of 13785 before closing the week at 13764. The weekly profile is an elongated one with Value at 13379-13702-13781 with HVNs at 13311 / 13539 & 13702 which would be the important references in the coming week.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (21st to 24th Dec 2020)
Spot Weekly – 30402 [ 30607 / 28976 ]
Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a Neutral Centre one with the narrowest weekly range of the year 2020 of just 599 points and has a very prominent POC at 30760 and has a very good chance of moving away from here in the coming week but would need initiative volumes for any such move to sustain. Value for the week was completely higher at 30590-30760-30890‘
BankNifty opened lower on Monday and after making a high of 30607 drove away from previous week’s Value breaking below previous week’s low in the ‘A’ period itself but took support just above the weekly VPOC of 30280 which was an important level to hold after which it formed a balance for the first half of the day leaving a selling tail from 30567 which meant that the PLR was to the downside. The auction then made a RE lower in the ‘H’ period as it left an extension handle at 30291 triggering a 1000 point fall as it went on to break below the 7th Dec FA of 29951 leaving the days second extension handle there before moving on to the next weekly VPOC of 29720 which again it broke convincingly making a low of 29201 in the ‘L’ period and continued this imbalance to the downside on Tuesday as a higher open got rejected and BankNity went on to form the largest IB range of the month at 601 points while making new monthly lows of 29107 and followed it up with multiple small REs lower from the ‘E’ to ‘G’ periods as the downmove seemed to be getting exhausted. More confirmation of this came in the second half of the day as the auction not only stopped the OTF (One Time Frame) down but started a fresh move on the upside even marking marignal new highs for the day at 29711 which signalled return of demand and this led to an initiative buying tail in the IB on Wednesday and a ‘p’ shape profile for the day as BankNifty formed Value in the selling singles of the Monday’s profile of 29695 to 29951. Thursday not only saw a gap up open above the lower extension handle of 29951 but a second successive Drive Up open as the auction went on to negate the higher extension handle of 30291 while leaving yet another buying tail in the IB from 30227 to 30007 and made multiple REs higher to hit 30546 forming yet another ‘p’ shape profile for the day and closing the week at 30402 just above the prominent POC of 30338 which would be the immediate reference on the downside in the coming week. Value for the week was mostly lower at 29474-30338-30600 with a low volume zone from 30280 to 29880 which would be the zone to watch below 30338 and on the upside we have the weekly VPOC of 30760 which would be the level to watch.
Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 30420 for a probe to 30536 / 30606 / 30760 / 30890 / 31010 & 31150
B) Accepting below 30354, the auction could test 30280 / 30102 / 30012 / 29920 / 29830 / 29760 & 29655
Extended Weekly Hypos
C) Above 31150, BankNifty can probe higher to 31240 / 31326 / 31425 / 31588 / 31650 & 31744
D) Below 29655, lower levels of 29575 / 29490 / 29380 / 29256 / 29149 & 29060 could come into play
BNF (Weekly Profile)
30437 [ 30598 / 29000 ]
BNF gave a move away from previous week’s balanced profile & prominent POC of 30792 as it opened lower on Monday and made a humongous fall in the second half of the day as it went on to break the FAs & positional reference of 30021 which only increased the pace of the fall as the auction broke the important level of 29724 which was a weekly VPOC and went on to make a low of 29222 in the ‘L’ period before closing the day at 29418. The auction opened higher on Tuesday but got rejected from the selling tail of 29708 to 29966 which indicated return of supply and this led to a reversal in the auction to the downside as it made a big IB range of 556 points breaking below PDL (Previous Day Low) and making a low of 29133. The ‘C’ side then gave a retracement to the day’s VWAP but could not sustain above it and this led to another leg lower as BNF made couple of REs lower in the ‘E’ & ‘G’ periods testing the lower level of 29030 and as it made a low right at the positional support of the series first FA of 29000. This swing support holding brought more demand as the auction made a trending move higher till the ‘K’ period making new highs for the day at 29760 and continued this imbalance on Thursday with a gap up open plus a Drive higher as it left a long buying tail in the IB from 30263 to 30021 and went on to hit 30577 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day and closing the week at 30437. The weekly profile is an elongated one of 1598 points with Value at 29555-30392-30570 with HVNs at 30392 / 29850 & 29648 which would be the important references in the last week of 2020.