Weekly charts (29th April to 3rd May) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (29th Apr to 3rd May)

In a holiday(s) shortened week, Nifty made a narrow balance on the weekly profile with the range being totally inside previous week’s range but with higher Value and a prominent POC at 11742. Nifty opened the week with a drive lower on Tuesday which was also the last day of April and gave almost a 100 point drop from the open to make a low of 11656 which was also the monthly POC where it took support leaving a new swing low on daily and went on to make new highs for the day. Nifty continued to probe higher on Thursday as it made a high of 11789 leaving a new swing high on daily as it probed lower taking support just above the weekly VAH. On Friday, Nifty attempted another probe higher but was met with rejection at 11771 where it left a daily FA and made similar lows at 11699 to give a slightly weaker close for the week. The weekly Value is 11702-11742-11762.

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Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty has immediate resistance in the 11721-742 zone, above which it can move to 11762-773 & 11797
B) Support is at 11699-694, below which the auction gets weak for 11670-655 & 11611-600
C) If 11797 is sustained, higher levels of 11827 & 11872-882 could come into play
D) Break of 11600 would be bearish for levels of 11568-557 / 11536-529 / 11508-503
E) Above 11882, fresh leg up could begin for levels of 11936 & 11973
F) Below 11503, the auction could test the important support zone of 11480 & 11448

NF (Weekly Profile)

NF stayed a narrow range this week making a nice balanced profile on the weekly forming Value in the low volume zone of the previous week’s profile thereby giving an inside bar on weekly both range wise & Value wise. The range in NF kept contracting on all 3 days of the week as we had a double inside bar on Friday indicating that we could have a move away from there in the coming week. The weekly profile has a prominent POC at 11790 and a weekly HVN at 11766 which will be the levels to watch in the next session. The weekly Value is 11742-11790-11796 with 11835 the level to be taken out on the upside and on downside important level to hold is 11712.

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BankNifty Spot Weekly ProfileĀ (29th Apr to 3rd May)

BankNifty stayed inside the previous week’s range in this 3-day week and Value formed was also completely inside previous week’s Value with an almost overlapping POC. The auction in the process has left a nice composite if we combine the last 2 weekly profiles. The week started with a gap down plus drive lower as the auction rejected the spike close of last Friday and went on to tag that FA of 29563 where it took support as it made a low of 29550 on 30th Apr but was not able to extend the range lower indicating that sellers were doing a bad job. The next 2 days BankNifty probed higher making non-overlap to higher Value and even confirmed a multi-day FA at 29639 on 3rd May and went on to tag the 1 ATR move up at 30039 and went on to get into the previous week’s selling tail of 30057 to 30290 making a high of 30122 but again got rejected as it left fresh singles at top from 30122 to 30063 to close the week at 29954. The weekly Value is 29620-29710-29880 and the 2 week composite has the Value 29617-29714-29960.

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Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to stay above 29960-970 for a move to 30045-63 / 30120 / 30190
B) Immediate support is at 29910-898, below which the auction gets weak for 29843-835 & 29757-710
C) If 30190 is sustained, higher levels of 30270-310 & 30367-370 could come into play
D) Break of 29710 could trigger a probe down to 29650-638 / 26584-550 / 29499
E) Above 30370, fresh leg up could begin for levels of 30411-440 / 30480-538 / 30590-625
F) Below 29499, the auction could test lower levels of 29435-425 / 29363-327 / 29264-241

BNF (Weekly Profile)

BNF has made a nice 3-1-3 profile (balanced profile with singles at both ends) inside the previous week’s range with overlapping to lower Value. BNF opened the week with a gap down of 125 points & drove lower in the first hour leaving a selling tail from 29918 to 30062 and went on to tag the weekly HVN of 29760 where it seemed to have found support. The auction did attempt a range extension lower as it made a low of 29663 on 30th Apr but was not able to close below that 29760 level on 30 mins which meant that demand was coming in below it. BNF made a ‘b’ profile on the first day with a small tail at lows too indicating that the sellers were unable to push the auction lower inspite of being the initiative force. The next day, BNF probed higher making a balance above 29760 & almost negated the previous day’s selling tail as it made a high of 30047 but again was not able to sustain the range extension to the upside & spiked lower into the close as it broke below 29760 but again was met with swift rejection. The auction then moved away from the overlapping POC of 29800 on 3rd May as it left a buying tail from 29925 to 29800 to make new weekly highs and in the process confirmed a multi-day FA at 29730 and went on to tag the 1 ATR move up of 30139. BNF continued to probe higher as it closed the weekly gap of 30178 to 30062 and almost tagged the weekly FA of 30251 as it made a high of 30237 but instead left a small selling tail at top from 30158 to 30237 which meant that earlier selling tail of 30252 to 30398 is still controlling the auction. The weekly Value is 29760-29864-30008 and the auction remains weak for a move to 29864-800 if stays below 30045. Acceptance above 30160 could bring a probe higher to 30252 which if taken out opens up levels of 30368 / 30460 & 30544 on the upside.

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