Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (29th July to 2nd August)
10997 [ 11311 / 10848 ]
Last week’s report mentioned ‘it has left 2 HVNs at 11355 & 11276 in both the balances which would be the levels to watch in the coming week‘
Nifty gave an almost OH (Open=High) start to the week at 11307-11311 just around the weekly VAH after which it drove lower as it broke below the HVN of 11276 and went on to complete the 80% Rule in weekly Value in the ‘A’ period itself which was a signal that there was initiative selling coming in & the PLR for the week would be down after which it went on to break previous week lows of 11210 as it made a low of 11152 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile on Monday. The auction opened higher on Tuesday & made an attempt to get into the weekly Value but was rejected twice in the previous day’s selling tail of 11261 to 11311 which confirmed that sellers are very much in control as Nifty got back below the weekly VAL & gave a trending move down as it made new lows for the week at 11072 to close in an imbalance which continued the next day as there was a gap down open and the auction after getting rejected at PDH (Previous Day High) made lows of 11010 in the IB but struggled to continue lower indicating that the imbalance could be coming to an end and this got confirmed as Nifty confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) on daily at 10999 after which it went on to tag the 1 ATR move up of 11117 on the same day with a spike higher into the close as it hit 11145. Thursday saw a big gap down as Nifty not only rejected the previous day’s spike but went on to give another drive down to trend lower for most part of the day as it broke below the FA of 10999 and almost tagged the 1 ATR move down of 10877 but got rejected from lows of 10881 to give a bouce to 11006 in the last 45 minutes. Just like the previous day, this spike also was rejected as the auction made a hat-trick of gap down opening to open lower on Friday and went on to make new weekly lows of 10857 in the IB after which it gave a failed ‘C’ side RE lower where it confrimed the second daily FA of the week at 10848 after which it gave a big contra move for the week to trend higher all day as it completed the 1 ATR move of 10978 and was looking set to tag the 2 ATR of 11108 but got rejected at 11080 before giving a close at 10997 which was the dPOC for the day. The weekly profile is an elongated Double Distribution Trend Down profile with a tail at top from 11267 to 11311 and an extension handle at 11152 which separates the 2 distributions. The weekly Value is 10992-11192-11262.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs to get above 11026 for a move to 11078-80 & 11112-131
B) Immediate support is at 10990-968 below which the auction fall to 10921-902 & 10869-848
C) Above 11131, Nifty can probe higher to 11152 & 11184-208
D) Below 10848, lower levels of 10830-816 & 10791-785 could come into play
E) If 11208 is taken out & sustained, Nifty can have a fresh leg up to 11237 & 11267-290
F) Break of 10785 could bring lower levels of 10747 / 10720-713 & 10677-661
NF (Weekly Profile)
11024 [11325 / 10886]
NF continued the imbalance it began on Friday last week as it moved away from previous week’s POC of 11319 leaving a selling tail at top from 11325 to 11287 on Monday as it went on to make lows of 11175. Tuesday saw the auction making an attempt to probe higher as it tested the singles of previous day but got rejected from there leaving a PBH (Pull Back High) of 11290 which indicated that the PLR continues to remain to the downside after which NF probed lower spiking into the close to leave an extension handle at 11176 as it hit 11080. NF then continued the fall on Wednesday open as it tagged 11031 which was later confirmed as a FA (Failed Auction) signalling that the auction may be too streched to the downside and hence giving a pull back which it did as it completed the 1 ATR move up of 11149 on the same day and went on to make highs of 11165 but could not test that extension handle of 11176 which meant that this move was just a pull back. The auction then made a trending move lower on Thursday after a gap down breaking below tha FA of 11031 and went on to tag the 1 ATR down objective of 10913 at the fag end of the day which also marked the completion of 2 ATR move down from the weekly FA of 11447 which came to 10911. Having achieved this dual objective NF then gave a big inventory adjustment move in the last 30 minutes as it gave a quick rise from 10901 to 11047. Friday saw a big gap down as NF opened at 10940 & probed lower making new lows for the week as it tagged 10886 but was rejected confirming a second FA in 3 days after which it probed higher to almost complete the 2 ATR objective of 11141 as it made highs of 11125 leaving an outside bar on the daily along with a Double Distribution Trend Down profile on the weekly. The weekly Value formed is completely lower at 10902-11088-11136 as NF closed at the HVN of 11022. The HVN in the upper distribution of the weekly profile is at 11205 which could come into play if the extension handle of 11176 is taken out.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (29th July to 2nd August)
28205 [ 29593 / 27936 ]
BankNifty gave a gap up of 250+ points on Monday as it opened above the weekly VAH of 29300 but in the previous week’s selling tail of 29457 to 29770 and could not sustain the gap as it left another selling tail from 29593 to 29415 to get back into previous week’s Value as it made a low of 29105 as it made a ‘b’ profile on Monday. The auction gave another gap up on Tuesday as it opened in the previous day’s selling tail of 29415 to 29593 making a high of 29530 but once again could not sustain the gap & this failure led to a OTF move lower as BankNifty completed the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value as it left an extension handle at 29105 to complete a Trend Day down marking a low of 28737. BankNifty made a lower low of 28530 at open on Wednesday but made a balance which was normal after a Trend Day and it spiked higher into the close leaving a pull back high of 28980 which was rejected on Thursday as the auction opened with a gap down & trended lower all day to give a 750 point drop as it made a low of 28047 giving a 4.5 IB Day and this big imbalance led to a small bounce in the last 45 minutes as it closed the day at 28367. Friday saw another gap down as the auction went on to make new weekly lows of 27936 in the form of a ‘C’ side extension and for the first time in the week could not sustain the IBL break as it confirmed a daily FA at lows and went on to completed the 1 ATR move of 28388 thereby closing the gap and continued to probe higher as it tagged 28544 but got rejected at the July monthly low of 28530 to close the day & week at 28205 leaving a Neutral profile on the daily but on the weekly it was an elongated Trending Profile Down as BankNifty made lower highs & lower lows all days of the week giving a huge 1657 point range which was the biggest weekly range since 15th March when the new IPM higher in it has just started. The weekly Value is 27950-28750-28985 and the PLR remains to the downside as the auction could test the weekly VPOC of 27600 & below it 26870 if stays below this week’s Value.
Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 28225-245 for a move to 28310-320 / 28310-320 & 28380-393
B) Immediate support is at 28163-141 below which the auction can test 28057-43 / 27999-973 & 27910-889
C) Above 28393, BankNifty can probe higher to 28450-477 / 28530-562 & 28612-646
D) Below 27889, lower levels of 27815-804 / 27755-725 & 27660 could come into play
E) If 28646 is taken out, BankNifty could rise to 28710-750 / 28816 & 28876-901
F) Break of 27660 could trigger a move lower to 27606-555/ 27490-474 & 27396-390
G) Sustaining above 28901, the auction can tag higher levels of 28980-985 / 29045-105 & 29156-175
H) Staying below 27390, BankNifty can probe down to 27310 / 27240-225 & 27144
BNF (Weekly Profile)
28327 [ 29680 / 28050 ]
BNF opened this week with a gap up of almost 200 points at 29646 and inside the previous week’s selling tail of 28592-29854 but was rejected swiftly as it not only closed the gap but left a big selling tail from 29485 to 29680 and went on to complete the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value on Monday itself as it made a low of 29196. The auction gave another gap up on Tuesday as it opened in the Monday’ singles of 29485 to 29680 but yet again was resisted at 29590 levels after which it have a trending move down and closed in a spike lower leaving an extension handle at 29272 as it broke below the weekly HVN of 29248 and went on to make a low of 28801. This huge imbalance of 800 points on the downside led to a balance for most part of the day on Wednesday even as BNF made new lows for the week at 28656 at open and ended the day with a spike higher into the close making a high of 29078. This spike was however rejected on Thursday as the auction opened lower and gave a trending move down matching the range of Tuesday to leave a 783 pointer as it tagged new lows of 28140 where it was met with swift rejection as it left a big tail at lows from 28290 to 28140 to close at 28499. BNF had opened all days this week with big gaps, the lowest gap being 127 points & Friday was no different as BNF opened lower with the biggest gap for the week of 255 points as it negated the previous day’s buying tail & went on to make new lows for the week at 28050 in a ‘C’ period RE which also marked the 2 ATR objective of 28090 from the monthly FA (Failed Auction) of 31727 which BNF had confirmed on 5th July 2019 falling by more than 3600 points in less than a month. Having met with such a huge objective, it was only apt that the auction made a retracement & the C side extension on Friday went on to confrim as a FA on daily time frame post which BNF completed the 1 ATR move of 28498 and went on to make highs of 28685 before closing the week at 28327 leaving a Double Distribution Trend Down profile on the weekly with the a large lower distribution and singles from 29272 to 29078. The weekly Value is 28104-28840-29000 with Value completely lower this week with a HVN at 28848 which will be the marker for any bounce in the coming week. BNF could balance in the range of 28840 to 28100 in the coming week to fill up the lower distribution.
