Weekly outlook for the week dated 23rd April to 27th April

Last week the Nifty progressed higher again in terms of value with a close at the highest point. It was the third straight week where value progressed higher after the inside week broke higher at the start of the new series of April ( refer chart below). There is a clear indication of Initiative buying coupled with responsive buying in the Nifty which should keep the trend up as we look to close the month. The BankNifty OTOH built value sideways last week and was inside the previous week range. Quite clearly the banks are worried as the rising India 10 year G sec hit highs of 7.80 again which was the level last seen in March before the RBI intervened. We are watching the higher yield which has potential to derail the momentum seen in April. If the yield does not drop quickly below 7.77 again earlier next week the BankNifty could witness a round of profit booking which puts a spanner into our plans of an expiry at higher levels.

 

Significant for us in the coming week would be the BankNifty and it’s reaction to the 2-week old balance. We would like to see it climb above 25300 quickly to force a second round of short-covering into settlement. Support lower is at the 24720 zone.

 

Nifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :

 

N Weekly 2 Weekly Outlook For The Week Dated 23Rd April To 27Th April Auction Market Theory, Marketprofile, Orderflow, Value Area

 

Last week the Nifty traded a 200 point range between 10594 to 10396 with the profile showing value closing higher.  As MarketProfilers we trade value and not price and the higher placement of value indicates that the path of least resistance continues to be upwards.

 

Our plan last week was to buy all dips and it paid off well as the Nifty closed at the highest point.

 

For the coming week also we maintain a dip buy mode with buyers looking to respond again around the 10500 zone. Lower support continues to be around the 10420 mark where we had seen the last big range extension.

 

However, a cautious mode needs to be adopted if the Nifty fails to meet willing new buying above 10630 in the week. A failure of any probe above 10630 can lead to a round of long liquidation and a drop to 10500 and 10430 again.

 

These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.

 

To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/.  Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/

 

BankNifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :

 

Bn Weekly 2 Weekly Outlook For The Week Dated 23Rd April To 27Th April Auction Market Theory, Marketprofile, Orderflow, Value Area

 

Last week the BN traded a 25426-24839 range of 590 points which was inside the range of the previous week. Value was sideways in the BankNifty which was interesting to note as the Nifty was a clear move higher.

 

Our plan last week was to see a consolidation in the BankNifty which played out .

 

Post this consolidation the Buyer would have to initiate new trade above 25300 to keep the momentum intact. Support lower is at 24900 and 24750.

 

However, if there is no buying seen at both those 2 levels then the BN risks a quick drop to 24400.

 

These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.

 

To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/.  Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/